UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

Focusing my attention on max’s tdd and i can see he’s been taken down before.

Conor got him down 4x and 6 mins ctrl time. A long time ago.

ortega and Volk but less ctrl. most recent

I’m getting the feeling that Tuporia isn’t going to make it to easy and just trade with Max, he’s going to use all his tools. And it’s something he might use to edge the scoring.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Focusing my attention on max’s tdd and i can see he’s been taken down before.

Conor got him down 4x and 6 mins ctrl time. A long time ago.

ortega and Volk but less ctrl. most recent

I’m getting the feeling that Tuporia isn’t going to make it to easy and just trade with Max, he’s going to use all his tools. And it’s something he might use to edge the scoring.
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Problem with that is that Max has become too good with his getups and not allowing anyone to settle into top position. And Ilia doesn't have elite top control anyway.

And the bigger issue is that Max has proven elite cardio in a rounders, even if they're high paced. Ilia has gone 5 but if he's trying to mix in grappling here he's using more energy than is probably wise.
 
mkess101 said:
Problem with that is that Max has become too good with his getups and not allowing anyone to settle into top position. And Ilia doesn't have elite top control anyway.

And the bigger issue is that Max has proven elite cardio in a rounders, even if they're high paced. Ilia has gone 5 but if he's trying to mix in grappling here he's using more energy than is probably wise.
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a td and a minute can sway a scorecard , if the standup is close. he did ground Emmet late and subdued Mitchell to end it with sub.

I'm not expecting high ctrl time, just enough to steal rounds, ending a round with him on top could swing the perception, just because the stats on the feet may be very close.
 


I guess this is old news, but I just saw it now for the first time.
 
TheMMAnalyst said:
I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?
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Holloway decision feels like a longshot to me, that’s the first thing I thought. Topuria is a fast starter and goes in for the kill. Max is cutting a lot of weight and I think that’s what will help to get him out of there if something ever will.

It’s been said that if you go for the finish and don’t get it, you’ll lose. I think if Topuria doesn’t get it early Max will overwhelm him and put him out in rd3 or 4.

Who knows, maybe Topuria and Holloway go the distance. I’ve seen weirder things happen before…
 
Stat_Collector said:
a td and a minute can sway a scorecard , if the standup is close. he did ground Emmet late and subdued Mitchell to end it with sub.

I'm not expecting high ctrl time, just enough to steal rounds, ending a round with him on top could swing the perception, just because the stats on the feet may be very close.
Click to expand...

I think maybe in the past yeah. Judges seem to ignore the meaningless late round TD these days if no damage is done.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see grappling playing a factor much at all.
 
Spath said:
Holloway decision feels like a longshot to me, that’s the first thing I thought. Topuria is a fast starter and goes in for the kill. Max is cutting a lot of weight and I think that’s what will help to get him out of there if something ever will.

It’s been said that if you go for the finish and don’t get it, you’ll lose. I think if Topuria doesn’t get it early Max will overwhelm him and put him out in rd3 or 4.

Who knows, maybe Topuria and Holloway go the distance. I’ve seen weirder things happen before…
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I wouldn't necessarily call Ilia a "fast starter". At least rd 1, he's usually not ultra aggressive. He was pretty measured vs Emmett, never really "went for the kill". Obviously that was a totally different threat, Emmett has massive power that Ilia had to be wary of. But I could see him not being hyper aggressive early in knowing he needs something in the tank if the fight goes late. He's not an "early KO or bust" guy. And he's fighting a guy with arguably the best chin in MMA history.

I'm sure Topuria would love to be the one to crack Max's chin, but no way is he coming into a title fight vs this guy with a "KO or bust" attitude. I think its absolutely possible this one sees the cards. In fact, I think there's value in FGD and maybe both guys decision lines.
 
mkess101 said:
I wouldn't necessarily call Ilia a "fast starter". At least rd 1, he's usually not ultra aggressive. He was pretty measured vs Emmett, never really "went for the kill". Obviously that was a totally different threat, Emmett has massive power that Ilia had to be wary of. But I could see him not being hyper aggressive early in knowing he needs something in the tank if the fight goes late. He's not an "early KO or bust" guy. And he's fighting a guy with arguably the best chin in MMA history.

I'm sure Topuria would love to be the one to crack Max's chin, but no way is he coming into a title fight vs this guy with a "KO or bust" attitude. I think its absolutely possible this one sees the cards. In fact, I think there's value in FGD and maybe both guys decision lines.
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Maybe, I could see it going down in many different way. Good point, Topuria isn’t a ”KO or bust” kinda guy. I was more thinking of the match up between these two.

Max has great gas tank, very good volume and tends to ramp up his game as the fight goes on. Topuria throws with more power and intent and that takes energy… But who knows, I don’t think I’m making big moves on this fight.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Seems like those movements have been happening more and more often. Guy with the slight edge opens as a moderate favorite and then gets bet down to massive odds.
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Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.
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If you're confident of those types of bets then just wait and live bet. I made some decent money doing that with Payton Talbott before he decided to start earlier.

Also used to do the reverse with Makwan but people cottoned onto that eventually, but the old fade Makwan at the end of round 1 was a decent money earner for a while.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.
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That's why I don't bet dogs.

Chalk only ☝️
 
ExitLUPin said:
Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.
Click to expand...

Someone needs to make a meme of a guy standing in line at a soup kitchen holding a sign that says "I was on the right side of all those bets!"
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think MMA is statistically the sport which has the most dog wins betting wise. Why would you not be betting dogs?
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Depends on how you handle your bet sizes and what not. If you're only doing massive plays on a single fight then dogs aren't the best way to go about it even if you hit every so often.

I've seen dudes go full martingale with an approach like that years ago.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Depends on how you handle your bet sizes and what not. If you're only doing massive plays on a single fight then dogs aren't the best way to go about it even if you hit every so often.

I've seen dudes go full martingale with an approach like that years ago.
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Yeah I guess I forget that most people aren't as boring as me when it comes to betting.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.
Click to expand...
It's very annoying indeed, especially if the dog flubs it late and gets finished like Breno did against Stots. +3.5 is probably the safest way to play fights like that, but none of the sites I use offer those lines.

Or just go with a shotgun approach for Splits lmao.
 
Thanks for the feedback @Spath, @PuertoRican, @Thesnake101 - I'm just going to focus on the Chimaev/Whittaker fight (since so many more variables in HollowayTopuria the more I think about it) and split my action on ML/Props as suggested:

1/2 unit Whittaker ML @ +200
1/2 unit Whittaker KO/TKO @ +380
1/4 unit Chimaev 1st round KO @ +450 > Insurance
 
Hellowhosthat said:
If you're confident of those types of bets then just wait and live bet. I made some decent money doing that with Payton Talbott before he decided to start earlier.

Also used to do the reverse with Makwan but people cottoned onto that eventually, but the old fade Makwan at the end of round 1 was a decent money earner for a while.
Click to expand...

Oh I def do that for some fighters. Spann is a recent one I remember fading after round 1 b2b against Smith and Guskov.
 
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