Topuria wasting time via cutting angles, Max can do enough output in that void sequences for the W.
T-Rex Max living in pocket we see that against Lamas, Gaethje, Poirier and he has that might to roll with the punches.
Ilia's rear straight is more like windmill, it can be easily countered and is easy to read.
From Holloway, we've seen that he's excellent when it comes to level changing takedown defense, but we haven't seen how he defends against someone with great Greco-Roman wrestling.
Lateral drops, outside trips and similar techniques could be weapons that Topuria will use. Holloway has a complete wrestling defense, takedown defense, scrambles, and a solid get-up game.
However, the biggest mystery is Topuria's control. Still... based on what we've seen so far, Holloway has shown in various situations that he knows how to get back to his feet and separate.
HOLLOWAY UD ( 49 - 46 )
Chimaev had a good camp, trains with Zhamalov, who is an Olympic gold medalist.
Even though he wrestled at 74 kg, the level of quality is still immense.
Whittaker has performed perfectly in scrambles so far, but he hasn’t faced an opponent with such a high level of wrestling who also poses submission threats.
In stand-up, that kind of pressure is crucial, we saw how he fared against DDP, who is raw and mainly relies on power and durability. Romero isn't really a relevant reference for this fight because wrestling wasn't his forte due to his neck surgery and today’s fighters are much more hybrid.
Chimaev 2R SUB ( RNC )
In the wrestling segment, since Rakic has been working with Babak, he has elevated his wrestling level, and I believe he can easily neutralize it. The biggest issue is stand-up, we've seen his holes in fights against Oezdemir, Blachowicz, and Prochazka. Those are the three main weapons that Ankalaev should use: pressure, low kicks, and power punches. When he feels that hard pressure, it becomes harder for him to find his distance, and he falls into a movement rhythm that isn't natural for him.
Ankalaev 2R TKO ( R hook to GNP )
Murphy will keep him at jab distance and from there will land his strikes, looking for level changing every time he enters the pocket. He shouldn't use kicks too much, as Ige can catch him with a counter. It's been a while since the fight against TKZ, but it showed that a fighter who doesn't have a serious takedown game, but is more dangerous on the ground, managed to take him down and control him. Mitchell demonstrated that again. Murphy doesn't have the same level of wrestling as Mitchell, but he can do better output in stand-up.
Murphy UD ( 30 - 27 )
Petrosyan has more fighting IQ, if he moves & clinch a lot can slow pace down and win a fight.
Shara is ultra-fast, and that might give him an advantage in striking, but he isn't more skilled when it comes to stand-up techniques. Shara has nonexistent takedown defense, but he's very aggressive on the ground and tries to inflict damage from the bottom position. Fighters who are calmer and can control that aggression can definitely keep him on the ground. Petrosyan has been in MMA long enough to secure a takedown at certain moments
Due to foreign territory split.
Petrosyan SD ( 29 - 28 )
Kickboxing always beats Capoeira due to its stance, greater durability, and more cerebral approach in exchanges.
Aslan KO R1 ( Jab, Cross )
It's a tricky fight. Neal doesn’t match up well with RDA in stand-up, while the opposite is true in wrestling. Neil Magny was able to take Neal down with a single leg and a deep double leg. Neal has excellent takedown defense, but when he gets taken down, he tends to be in trouble. The reason I give the edge to Neal is that he won’t rush in, he’ll take control of the octagon and steadily work on accumulating damage.
Neal TKO R3 ( L Bodykick )
Rebecki is too shorter, which will help him time his movements and defend takedowns. He’s known for giving a lot of trouble to caucasian wrestling style. If he can neutralize his opponent, he’ll be able to counter Orolbai's predictable strikes, as he keeps repeating the same combination with the same head movement each time.
Orolbai's path to victory is similar to Merab vs. Yan. If he can execute that strategy effectively and win dominantly, he has the potential to become a champion.
FOR VALUE.
Rebecki TKO R2 ( L Overhand )
Abus is dangerous in the first round, he'll be moving a lot and throwing plenty of kicks, but his cardio isn’t at a high level. Ferreira should apply pressure and perhaps look for takedowns to wear Abus gas tank down, then unleash his devastating boxing.
Ferreira TKO R2 ( GNP )
Nzechukwu will take a lot of strikes early on, but once Barnett starts to fade with his cardio, Nzechukwu will begin using his knees and elbows to dismantle him.
Nzechkwu TKO R2 ( Elbows )
Farid is the most hybrid fighter on the roster with very few weaknesses. Against Blackshear, he got stuck in the scissor guard and didn’t have many solutions, but those are micro-segments where Hugo definitely can't threaten him. I see opportunities for calf kicks, as both he and his brother seem vulnerable there. I expect complete domination and a smooth walk through the top 15.
Basharat UD ( 30 - 27 )
CHAMP 2028
Naurdiev should adopt a GM3-style approach and pressure him. As soon as he straightens the lines, he should look for level changing. On the other hand, we saw that Kutsyi caught him with an overhand while he was retreating. So both fighters have their weapons, but Silva doesn’t seem to have the timing needed to chase someone down effectively.
Naurdiev UD ( 29 - 28 )
Leal is coming in on short notice, and we don’t know if he’s ready to handle that pressure for 15 minutes. Rinat should focus on wrestling in the first round, and then he can pick Leal apart in stand-up. Leal is slower, which will give Rinat the space to execute his game plan effectively.
Fakhretdinov UD ( 30 - 26 )
CHAMP 2026