UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[JC615]

Gianni the Greek is on the Cerqueira side, claims Aslan has a padded record

Nobody gives a fuck what Gianni the Greek thinks.

 

[mkess101]

Nobody gives a fuck what Gianni the Greek thinks.

Wrong. Fading him when you don't have time to do your own research is a viable strategy LOL.

 

[fedortips]

Can Whittaker do what Usman did to defend the choke when chimaev got his back, let alone defending the takedowns? I don't think so.

Chimaev wins in 1st or 2nd round @ 2.85
Total time less than 2.5 minutes @ 7.50
Chimaev wins in the 1st round by sub @ 9.00
Chimaev wins in 60 seconds @ 40

Or

4th round to start? No @ 1.63
3rd round to start? No @ 2.12
2nd round to start? No @ 3.48

I don't know what to pick

 

[burge13]

Wrong. Fading him when you don't have time to do your own research is a viable strategy LOL.

It's pretty wild the UFC, a global multi billion $ brand, continues to give him a platform. Like what the absolute fuck is going through their heads when he's on screen?!

Surely they know he cheapens their product no end. What are they playing at

 

[JC615]

Wrong. Fading him when you don't have time to do your own research is a viable strategy LOL.

I stand corrected. You reminded me how lucrative he can be lol

 

[crystal_octahedron]

 

[guesswhoseback]

I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?

Chimeve-dec
Toppuria-dec

So sadly I think u will lose both

 

[guesswhoseback]

Can Whittaker do what Usman did to defend the choke when chimaev got his back, let alone defending the takedowns? I don't think so.

Chimaev wins in 1st or 2nd round @ 2.85
Total time less than 2.5 minutes @ 7.50
Chimaev wins in the 1st round by sub @ 9.00
Chimaev wins in 60 seconds @ 40

Or

4th round to start? No @ 1.63
3rd round to start? No @ 2.12
2nd round to start? No @ 3.48

I don't know what to pick

All those will lose

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Chimeve-dec
Toppuria-dec

So sadly I think u will lose both

We can’t all be winners I suppose lol

 

[Jinx_AA]

Topuria wasting time via cutting angles, Max can do enough output in that void sequences for the W.
T-Rex Max living in pocket we see that against Lamas, Gaethje, Poirier and he has that might to roll with the punches.
Ilia's rear straight is more like windmill, it can be easily countered and is easy to read.
From Holloway, we've seen that he's excellent when it comes to level changing takedown defense, but we haven't seen how he defends against someone with great Greco-Roman wrestling.
Lateral drops, outside trips and similar techniques could be weapons that Topuria will use. Holloway has a complete wrestling defense, takedown defense, scrambles, and a solid get-up game.
However, the biggest mystery is Topuria's control. Still... based on what we've seen so far, Holloway has shown in various situations that he knows how to get back to his feet and separate.

HOLLOWAY UD ( 49 - 46 )

Chimaev had a good camp, trains with Zhamalov, who is an Olympic gold medalist.
Even though he wrestled at 74 kg, the level of quality is still immense.
Whittaker has performed perfectly in scrambles so far, but he hasn’t faced an opponent with such a high level of wrestling who also poses submission threats.
In stand-up, that kind of pressure is crucial, we saw how he fared against DDP, who is raw and mainly relies on power and durability. Romero isn't really a relevant reference for this fight because wrestling wasn't his forte due to his neck surgery and today’s fighters are much more hybrid.

Chimaev 2R SUB ( RNC )

In the wrestling segment, since Rakic has been working with Babak, he has elevated his wrestling level, and I believe he can easily neutralize it. The biggest issue is stand-up, we've seen his holes in fights against Oezdemir, Blachowicz, and Prochazka. Those are the three main weapons that Ankalaev should use: pressure, low kicks, and power punches. When he feels that hard pressure, it becomes harder for him to find his distance, and he falls into a movement rhythm that isn't natural for him.

Ankalaev 2R TKO ( R hook to GNP )

Murphy will keep him at jab distance and from there will land his strikes, looking for level changing every time he enters the pocket. He shouldn't use kicks too much, as Ige can catch him with a counter. It's been a while since the fight against TKZ, but it showed that a fighter who doesn't have a serious takedown game, but is more dangerous on the ground, managed to take him down and control him. Mitchell demonstrated that again. Murphy doesn't have the same level of wrestling as Mitchell, but he can do better output in stand-up.

Murphy UD ( 30 - 27 )

Petrosyan has more fighting IQ, if he moves & clinch a lot can slow pace down and win a fight.
Shara is ultra-fast, and that might give him an advantage in striking, but he isn't more skilled when it comes to stand-up techniques. Shara has nonexistent takedown defense, but he's very aggressive on the ground and tries to inflict damage from the bottom position. Fighters who are calmer and can control that aggression can definitely keep him on the ground. Petrosyan has been in MMA long enough to secure a takedown at certain moments
Due to foreign territory split.

Petrosyan SD ( 29 - 28 )

Kickboxing always beats Capoeira due to its stance, greater durability, and more cerebral approach in exchanges.

Aslan KO R1 ( Jab, Cross )

It's a tricky fight. Neal doesn’t match up well with RDA in stand-up, while the opposite is true in wrestling. Neil Magny was able to take Neal down with a single leg and a deep double leg. Neal has excellent takedown defense, but when he gets taken down, he tends to be in trouble. The reason I give the edge to Neal is that he won’t rush in, he’ll take control of the octagon and steadily work on accumulating damage.

Neal TKO R3 ( L Bodykick )

Rebecki is too shorter, which will help him time his movements and defend takedowns. He’s known for giving a lot of trouble to caucasian wrestling style. If he can neutralize his opponent, he’ll be able to counter Orolbai's predictable strikes, as he keeps repeating the same combination with the same head movement each time.
Orolbai's path to victory is similar to Merab vs. Yan. If he can execute that strategy effectively and win dominantly, he has the potential to become a champion.
FOR VALUE.

Rebecki TKO R2 ( L Overhand )

Abus is dangerous in the first round, he'll be moving a lot and throwing plenty of kicks, but his cardio isn’t at a high level. Ferreira should apply pressure and perhaps look for takedowns to wear Abus gas tank down, then unleash his devastating boxing.

Ferreira TKO R2 ( GNP )

Nzechukwu will take a lot of strikes early on, but once Barnett starts to fade with his cardio, Nzechukwu will begin using his knees and elbows to dismantle him.

Nzechkwu TKO R2 ( Elbows )

Farid is the most hybrid fighter on the roster with very few weaknesses. Against Blackshear, he got stuck in the scissor guard and didn’t have many solutions, but those are micro-segments where Hugo definitely can't threaten him. I see opportunities for calf kicks, as both he and his brother seem vulnerable there. I expect complete domination and a smooth walk through the top 15.

Basharat UD ( 30 - 27 )
CHAMP 2028

Naurdiev should adopt a GM3-style approach and pressure him. As soon as he straightens the lines, he should look for level changing. On the other hand, we saw that Kutsyi caught him with an overhand while he was retreating. So both fighters have their weapons, but Silva doesn’t seem to have the timing needed to chase someone down effectively.

Naurdiev UD ( 29 - 28 )

Leal is coming in on short notice, and we don’t know if he’s ready to handle that pressure for 15 minutes. Rinat should focus on wrestling in the first round, and then he can pick Leal apart in stand-up. Leal is slower, which will give Rinat the space to execute his game plan effectively.

Fakhretdinov UD ( 30 - 26 )
CHAMP 2026

LOL @ Fak and bash being champs in 2026 LOL

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?

Holloway by DEC is one of the best prop bets on the entire card imo but you should be able to find a better number than +400. I have seen anywhere from +450 to +540 out there.

I prefer playing Whittaker by TKO R3,4,5 at +850 (FanDuel) than playing the prop straight. I think the added value is worth not covering R1 & R2 since Rob should have his hands full dealing with Chimaev's explosive grappling in those rounds.

 

[Monster Meat]

My favorite prop line is Murphy round 3-Dec -167. Also riding with max +195 bc I love him and Whittaker +210

 

[mkess101]

My favorite prop line is Murphy round 3-Dec -167. Also riding with max +195 bc I love him and Whittaker +210

Why pay the extra juice for rd 3 on Lerone? Decision is -135. Ige has shown to be impossible to finish, has a great gas tank (see how he turned it on rd 3 vs Lopes in a fight Dan took on 3 hours notice). IMO Lerone is a just a little better everywhere and a great tactical round winner so I agree with his decision line but him finishing in rd 3 is a massive long shot and not worth the extra juice imo.

 

[guesswhoseback]

We can’t all be winners I suppose lol

Well I've been wrong before lol

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Holloway by DEC is one of the best prop bets on the entire card imo but you should be able to find a better number than +400. I have seen anywhere from +450 to +540 out there.

I prefer playing Whittaker by TKO R3,4,5 at +850 (FanDuel) than playing the prop straight. I think the added value is worth not covering R1 & R2 since Rob should have his hands full dealing with Chimaev's explosive grappling in those rounds.

I took your advice and bet on Whittaker by KO/TKO in round 3 / 4 / 5 at +2000 / +2200 / +2500 and put some insurance on Whittaker ML +200 and Khamzhat by round 1 KO/TKO at +450.

So rooting for a Rob finish later in the fight, but if Khamzhat smokes him out the gate I’ll still be profitable.

Thanks again for the guidance.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Abus is a massive bum, but Ferreira has a Phil Hawes chin

 

[Jinx_AA]

Abus is a massive bum, but Ferreira has a Phil Hawes chin

Never put money on a gasser/fader …no dog in them

No reason to bet on either of these flakes imo

-the odds seem right …. Ones more technical , ones more powerful - both unreliable =50/50

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Abus would gas after 3 minutes if he fought Anthony Hernandez

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Never put money on a gasser/fader …no dog in them

No reason to bet on either of these flakes imo

-the odds seem right …. Ones more technical , ones more powerful - both unreliable =50/50

I think Ferreira is more technical as well as more powerful, but his chin is terrible, and he might have terrible gas like Abus does as well

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

LOL @ Fak and bash being champs in 2026 LOL

Little biased, I can't lie.

but...
I believe he can beat Belal.
From WW roster he is underdog only against Moraes, Garry, Shavkhat and Usman near even in my opinion right now.
Khabib is most dominant fighter in the UFC ever.
Who can say that about Khabib after Gleison Tibau fight?