UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[DalchaLungiambula]

Nobody gives a fuck what Gianni the Greek thinks.

You're right, MintyBets is better

 

[fedortips]

UFC will give a huge match to Ankalaev if he performs well (win inside the distance)

I will take Ankalaev by KO/sub @ 3.30

 

[Spath]

UFC will give a huge match to Ankalaev if he performs well (win inside the distance)

I will take Ankalaev by KO/sub @ 3.30

Ankalaev has 1 sub on his record and even that is a submission to punches against a total can (20-19 record and losses to guys with 6-13 record via headlock lol)

I wouldn’t count on that. T/KO is a real possibility but odds aren’t too good. I would look elsewhere for value

 

[fedortips]

Ankalaev has 1 sub on his record and even that is a submission to punches against a total can (20-19 record and losses to guys with 6-13 record via headlock lol)

I wouldn’t count on that. T/KO is a real possibility but odds aren’t too good. I would look elsewhere for value

I stopped looking only KO or submission picks after I picked poirier to KO gaethje and he subbed him. And the KO pick is 3.80, while KO/sub is 3.30.

 

[Spath]

I stopped looking only KO or submission picks after I picked poirier to KO gaethje and he subbed him. And the KO pick is 3.80, while KO/sub is 3.30.

Are you thinking of Poirier vs Chandler? Because Poirier didn’t sub Gaethje, he finished him with punches…

I see what you are saying, though.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Max, Rakic and Petro are dogs I'm playing for sure straight ML. I like Rob too but I am gonna see late TKO numbers.

Rakic seems like a tough matchup for Ank. Ank's grappling is overrated he is the Dagestani with a combat sambo background so people think he's this monster grappler but he isn't. He is capable and has deadly GNP but his top pressure isn't much, not a sub threat and even his TDs aren't great. He has a 30% accuracy and in time he does get 1 he doesn't do much with it besides against Jan where he beat him up but everyone knows Jan is historically bad off his back. He's been out on his back and looked like a fish out of water his whole career including to guys like Gus and Cummins.

Rakic is more technical striker and I see the leg kicks being a massive problem. Thiago Santos off ACL surgery took 2 rounds standing with Ank and landed 30 leg kicks. Jan nearly crippled Ank with leg kicks and Rakic has the heaviest most damaging leg kicks in division. Jiri was in deep shit from them too. Ank does not have his pressure though and I think his attempts to tie up and grapple go nowhere. Alex and Jan are the only LHWs that can check Rakic kicks too. I just see Rakic out striking him probably decision. -450 Ank is crazy. He was -800 against Craig, -800 against Santos, -700 against Smith, -400 against Jan..... Like what are these lines even fights he wins he almost never covers these juiced up lines.

Petro is more technical striker than Shara and this is one of the few matchups where he has all grappling equity. Michal of all people had grappling upside against Shara LOL even while he was beaten up badly striking. Shara for his volume doesn't have much power either. I will be playing Petro point spread +3.5 because I don't see how he doesn't win a round at least and he doesn't have the power to KO him. Petro will be controlling range IMO so I don't see Shara opening up one of his one shot elbow or knee KOs which are his only paths to KOs for the most part.

Bailed on Petro. Seen too many squares on him lol and I honestly thought Shara would have been a bigger favorite than he is right now. Pass

Locked in Rakic and Max. Finish and 3/4/5 for Max too.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Ankalaev has 1 sub on his record and even that is a submission to punches against a total can (20-19 record and losses to guys with 6-13 record via headlock lol)

I wouldn’t count on that. T/KO is a real possibility but odds aren’t too good. I would look elsewhere for value

I think Ank will win but the value is on Rakic, he shouldn’t be as wide a dog as he is.

To me this is a dog heavy card when it comes to value, Max/Rob/Rakic all wider than they should be by a fair margin.

 

[Spath]

I think Ank will win but the value is on Rakic, he shouldn’t be as wide a dog as he is.

To me this is a dog heavy card when it comes to value, Max/Rob/Rakic all wider than they should be by a fair margin.

Agreed. I think the first round of Ank vs Rakic will show us how it plays out, even if it goes to a decision.

Rakic has a well rounded game, he can both strike and grapple. I absolutely loved his headkick finish of Manuwa! He has some good leg kicks too which I hope he utilizes. Hoping for all the underdogs win!

 

[JC615]

You're right, MintyBets is better

Certainly better looking. That's for sure.

 

[betterthanjones]

some first looks at this card

abus straight
whittake straight
aslan/csect u1.5
bruno silva ko
barnett ko

rda/neal o2.5 parlay material
rinat/carlos o2.5 parlay mat.
neal parlay mat.
murphy parlay mat.

 

[sonhow]

LOL @ Fak and bash being champs in 2026 LOL

Bash has a shot
Fak no chance

 

[sonhow]

Certainly better looking. That's for sure.

Thats not saying too much as Gianni looks like that Jim Carrey fire department or something guy. But Minty is easy on eyes thats why she got the job probably

 

[sonhow]

Little biased, I can't lie.

but...
I believe he can beat Belal.
From WW roster he is underdog only against Moraes, Garry, Shavkhat and Usman near even in my opinion right now.
Khabib is most dominant fighter in the UFC ever.
Who can say that about Khabib after Gleison Tibau fight?

If Fak wins title before end of 2026 I will either
1) delete my account
Or
2) send you 1 million dollars

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Agreed. I think the first round of Ank vs Rakic will show us how it plays out, even if it goes to a decision.

Rakic has a well rounded game, he can both strike and grapple. I absolutely loved his headkick finish of Manuwa! He has some good leg kicks too which I hope he utilizes. Hoping for all the underdogs win!

To me the fatal flaw with Rakic is he is a slow-paced outside kickboxer that likes to use single strikes at a time. Yes, he is a tank that can wrestle/hold down guys with suspect TD and weak get-ups like Smith/Jan, but Ank isn't the guy to work that game on (though it is possible to overwhelm him and get him down like Krylov did).

Ultimately what is Ank's biggest flaw? He doesn't really take the initiative early, he's happy to fight a slow-paced outside kickboxing fight where his opponents exchange single techniques so he can get the timing/reads and start to check their kicks and then push forward and start building with pretty solid volume striking that gets more varied and layered as he gets more comfortable.

Outside of getting subbed like a moron in the last few seconds by Craig in a fight he was dominating until he dove into a triangle for seemingly no reason, the times he's looked the most shook were when just guys went after him i.e. Krylov going crazy with forward pressure trying to wrestle and throw reckless combos.

He absolutely smoked Cutelaba because of the skill/technique disparity that was the right approach from the wrong guy (doesn't have the skill to close distance with jabs/low-kicks/feints, just moves into range and when he throws it is single wild hooks to the head). Jan to me is the most proven kick-check in the UFC, took apart Izzy's game, so he was able to brutalize Ank at his own game early (was even kicking through his checks when he did start checking), but he himself also brutalized Rakic himself with low-kicks and checks in a similar style of fight to start.

So is Rakic the guy that is going to turn into a technical boxer-puncher that will pressure with layered attacks and ability to throw in combination/destroy Ank's legs? I just don't see it personally, that's why I want to see the Poatan fight so bad, it's kind of a perfect match-up - Poatan has the striking style to really put Ank in trouble by using technical pressure and range tools on top of the leg kicking advantage (Ank is pretty damn good at throwing and checking himself, but there are levels and Jan/Poatan are at the top at LHW) and Ank has the style if he is able to seize the initiative and put Poatan on the back foot of mixing in takedowns and then feinting to strike off them to potentially give Poatan fits.

And if Ank got him down he might do terrible things to him on the ground, just think of what Izzy was able to do the one time they went to the ground in the first fight, it was like 3+ minutes of control and a lot of ground work from a lanky MW kickboxer with a non-existent ground game. I know Poatan is getting better and all but he's in his late 30's and a kickboxer, he isn't going to ever be able to level-up anywhere even relatively close to Ank's level of technique and experience on the ground.

Sorry to go off on a tangent re: Ank vs. Poatan, I just think it's a highly under-rated fight that the UFC has done a good job into gaslighting fans into thinking they don't think they need to see because they want to protect their cash cow ultimately from what is truly a dangerous fight for him. They'd rather feed him one-dimensional strikers like Hill/Roundtree that will put on firefights that are likely to leave him the one standing.

 

[Guld]

Weigh in for Max today...


VS what he looked like against Gaethje

 

[Guld]

Proper photos here:

Photos: UFC 308 official weigh-ins

Get a closer look at the fighters on the scale at UFC 308 official weigh-ins with these exclusive photos.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

 

[fedortips]

Are you thinking of Poirier vs Chandler? Because Poirier didn’t sub Gaethje, he finished him with punches…

I see what you are saying, though.

Ah yes, sorry. Chandler



That was the pick unfortunately

 

[guesswhoseback]

Weigh in for Max today...
View attachment 1068390

VS what he looked like against Gaethje
View attachment 1068391

Dam got more sun this fight

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I bet little on Ilia by KO/TKO and Khamzat by Decision. Not in a parlay. I think these are the most likely way these fights go. I don't have interest in the rest of the card bettingwise.

 

[AzorAhai1]

It's a weird one for me, because if it wasn't for the Volkanovski KO, Topuria's resume isn't that great. He's knocked out Herbert, who has been knocked out a couple times before that, even in the first round. Max's resume is incredible, and he's beat killer after killer for years. Topuria couldn't finish Emmett, yet Yair was able to sub Emmett. Sure, styles make fights, but for me I can't shake the experience and resume of Max. I did think Topuria initially, but now i'm not so sure. I think I'm leaning Max.