UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[PuertoRican]

• "Chimaev makes weight with minutes to spare"

• Orolbai (159) vs. Rebecki (160)

• Farid Basharat (137) vs. Victor Hugo (145.5). Hugo weighed 10 pounds over the limit and Farid agreed to a featherweight fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

600*ud on chimaev seems tempting. Robert can be wrestled. Ddp had him down in the end of the rnd 1. I think Khamzat had less success with Burns and usman because they are natural wrestlers. Ive seen robert get taken down.

I ended up playing max dec . Dont see Tuporia as successful as Khamzat in that department.

 

[sonhow]

Can Khamzat score takedowns vs Robert? Sure he can. I expect him to throw Rob around in first round. Can he do it all 5 rounds? Doubtful but lucky for him he might not need to. He's got very serviceable striking in his pack pocket if wrestling doesnt pan out. He just needs three rounds. Unless he completely gasses out I can very easily see him taking a decision but Im feeling playing the odds this time with Rob. Which is in complete contradiction to what I wrote earlier how muslims dont tend to lose on these cards lol.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

• "Chimaev makes weight with minutes to spare"

• Orolbai (159) vs. Rebecki (160)

• Farid Basharat (137) vs. Victor Hugo (145.5). Hugo weighed 10 pounds over the limit and Farid agreed to a featherweight fight.

They announce on the weigh-ins show that they are all of a sudden changing the weigh-in window from 1 hour to 2 hours, and Chimaev shows up last minute and get the shady Abu Dhabi scale treatment where they don't even let the weight balance before they say he made weight.

Then two catch-weight fights, including one where a guy comes in an entire weight-class heavier, which honestly should just get you out-right cut form the UFC entirely - either you were injured and unable to properly train but are so desperate for the fight purse that you just pretend you are trying and are going to put on a terrible fight, or you legit are trying to get such a ridiculous advantage via weight-cutting by making your opponent cut an extra 10 pounds that it's borderline criminal.

All-in-all, classic UFC in the Middle East shenanigans.

 

[Thesnake101]

They announce on the weigh-ins show that they are all of a sudden changing the weigh-in window from 1 hour to 2 hours, and Chimaev shows up last minute and get the shady Abu Dhabi scale treatment where they don't even let the weight balance before they say he made weight.

Then two catch-weight fights, including one where a guy comes in an entire weight-class heavier, which honestly should just get you out-right cut form the UFC entirely - either you were injured and unable to properly train but are so desperate for the fight purse that you just pretend you are trying and are going to put on a terrible fight, or you legit are trying to get such a ridiculous advantage via weight-cutting by making your opponent cut an extra 10 pounds that it's borderline criminal.

All-in-all, classic UFC in the Middle East shenanigans.

Hugo technically made weight because Farid didn't cut the last pound. Assume he knew Victor was fat and held off to make sure he got the fight in and was better hydrated than if he continued to cut.

Hope they either force Victor up and into an unwinnable fight next, or just cut him. It's inexcusable.

 

[mkess101]

600*ud on chimaev seems tempting. Robert can be wrestled. Ddp had him down in the end of the rnd 1. I think Khamzat had less success with Burns and usman because they are natural wrestlers. Ive seen robert get taken down.

I ended up playing max dec . Dont see Tuporia as successful as Khamzat in that department.

Burns isn't a wrestler. He's a bjj guy. Whitaker actually has more of a wrestling pedigree.

That said, Gilbert obviously provides more challenges off his back than Bobby does given that Burns is a bjj world champ.

 

[mkess101]

Stopped at the Fanduel book on my way back from a work trip today and made some plays. Salty as hell because yesterday Max decision was +700 at Fanduel and this morning had dropped to +470. Brutal that I missed that line. I'm pretty spread out on this card, not a ton of exposure to any one fight. Biggest play is actually Aslan at dog odds haha.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Playing Leal ML +180 and finish +390

lol no explanation needed. Cant void winning bets if the fighter fails a drug test babybois. Rinat has power but he is a standard wrestle boxer. He can be hurt especially to the body too. He is one of those decision machines who despite great TDs isn't a good finisher on the ground. Most his subs came against horrific competition with 0-3 fights. Lee was basically KOd when he subbed him too. If he can't land that big shot he has little finishing upside and I'm gonna trust Leal to not get blanketted and be a good enough striker to not get caught with that right.

 

[guesswhoseback]

It's a weird one for me, because if it wasn't for the Volkanovski KO, Topuria's resume isn't that great. He's knocked out Herbert, who has been knocked out a couple times before that, even in the first round. Max's resume is incredible, and he's beat killer after killer for years. Topuria couldn't finish Emmett, yet Yair was able to sub Emmett. Sure, styles make fights, but for me I can't shake the experience and resume of Max. I did think Topuria initially, but now i'm not so sure. I think I'm leaning Max.

Play the point spread

 

[guesswhoseback]

Stopped at the Fanduel book on my way back from a work trip today and made some plays. Salty as hell because yesterday Max decision was +700 at Fanduel and this morning had dropped to +470. Brutal that I missed that line. I'm pretty spread out on this card, not a ton of exposure to any one fight. Biggest play is actually Aslan at dog odds haha.

I haven't seen u post any of the fantasy lines recently are you still doing them

 

['Suga Daddy']

Rebecki will look +110 after winning the 1st round unanimously and still lose a decision lol. Feels 2024 has been the year of big dogs covering their lines by a mile but still losing. Maybe the most annoying type of beats in MMA betting.

Rob Font and Austen Lane decision lines last week were beautiful, 8.25 and 15.00

 

[mkess101]

I haven't seen u post any of the fantasy lines recently are you still doing them

Yeah but not as heavy. Prizepicks and Underdog have gotten way sharper. They were giving $ away for awhile with some of the lines they offered but they've figured it out to a degree. I assumed they would.

This card the best line imo for Prizepicks is Kennedy under 116.5 fantasy score. He will likely need a 1st round finish to cover and he's not a super aggressive guy who goes for early KO's. @PuertoRican actually spotted that line first. We also like Ilia under 2 takedowns.

Best line on Underdog imo is Lerone under 59.55 fantasy score. Ige is impossible to finish and it will be really tough for Lerone to cover this in winning a decision.

 

[mkess101]

Rob Font and Austen Lane decision lines last week were beautiful, 8.25 and 15.00

Barnett decision is +1200

Was anyone on OSP decision in Kennedy's last fight? Just sayin'...

 

[Bubzeh]

So much value tonight available. Best of luck everyone.

 

[Monster Meat]

Why pay the extra juice for rd 3 on Lerone? Decision is -135. Ige has shown to be impossible to finish, has a great gas tank (see how he turned it on rd 3 vs Lopes in a fight Dan took on 3 hours notice). IMO Lerone is a just a little better everywhere and a great tactical round winner so I agree with his decision line but him finishing in rd 3 is a massive long shot and not worth the extra juice imo.

I get what you are saying but I always like taking the round 3-dec just in case. For me I’d rather pay the minimally extra $ but in this case I didn’t realize that he was -135 by decision. Usually there’s a minimal difference between those markets.

 

[fedortips]

All those will lose

Lol

 

[guesswhoseback]

Lol

Lol what was said again?