UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[Thesnake101]

I like how people are betting Murphy with what seems like big bucks considering his line has went down a lot in last few days -and the fight isnt even happening! Shows how much people are just betting blind. But at the same time why is the line still up?

There hasn't been any info on the fight being off. There was that one tweet almost a week ago but it's probably bullshit seeing how nothing got announced days after.

 

[mkess101]

I like how people are betting Murphy with what seems like big bucks considering his line has went down a lot in last few days -and the fight isnt even happening! Shows how much people are just betting blind. But at the same time why is the line still up?

I'm pretty sure Ige/Murphy is still on as of now bro.

 

[sonhow]

There hasn't been any info on the fight being off. There was that one tweet almost a week ago but it's probably bullshit seeing how nothing got announced days after.

I'm pretty sure Ige/Murphy is still on as of now bro.

Guess this is what happens when you just get the mma news from the heavies




And I thought it was like 100& off.... Thanks for the info guys didnt see any counter to the news in the forum.

 

[theTKDguy]

Trying to decide if I should argue for 5 pages why I think Rakic is going to upset Ankalaev.


View attachment 1067867

I mean, he’s a pretty well rounded, strong fighter with great leg kicks. Ankalaev is hot and cold and susceptible to leg kicks. If he has a lackadaysical performance, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a rakic dec win.

Dont get me wrong, ankalaev is and should be the fav but line is way too wide, rakic is not an easy win.

 

[Thesnake101]

Played Aslan at dog odds. He's very limited by Raff is an older can crusher that seems to favor striking.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Played Aslan at dog odds. He's very limited by Raff is an older can crusher that seems to favor striking.

I saw an ig post of a fight where Raffael took two rounds to ko a fat can. Aslan is a level higher here.

 

[Thesnake101]

Tons of money came in on Naurdiev, waited too long to play him so I'll only have him on a parlay I made a few days ago. Leal's already +210 in the site I use, hopefully it keeps climbing.

I'll either start off the night strong with Aslan and Leal, or eat shit.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Played Aslan at dog odds. He's very limited by Raff is an older can crusher that seems to favor striking.

I played him when he was a slight favourite. I think this is relatively straightforward for him tbh.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Rebecki is +270... what am I missing? How is this not a dead even fight on paper?

 

[mkess101]

Rebecki is +270... what am I missing? How is this not a dead even fight on paper?

It's not. Oralbai is a bit better everywhere imo. That said, odds have gotten crazy. Rebecki will be dangerous, especially early.

 

[Thesnake101]

It's not. Oralbai is a bit better everywhere imo. That said, odds have gotten crazy. Rebecki will be dangerous, especially early.

Seems like those movements have been happening more and more often. Guy with the slight edge opens as a moderate favorite and then gets bet down to massive odds.

 

[mkess101]

Seems like those movements have been happening more and more often. Guy with the slight edge opens as a moderate favorite and then gets bet down to massive odds.

Yep. Like...i think even another one on this card with Lerone right? Wasn't he like -190 and now -260? I guess it's not massive movement but yeah it feels like moderate favorites are getting bet to -3xx a lot lately.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Tons of money came in on Naurdiev, waited too long to play him so I'll only have him on a parlay I made a few days ago. Leal's already +210 in the site I use, hopefully it keeps climbing.

I'll either start off the night strong with Aslan and Leal, or eat shit.

Naurdiev i dont see it, i'm having tunnel vision? I've seen him get dropped multiple times. and his cardio looks average. Bandel dropped him and subbed, he has 1 ko win and 6 ko losses in 32 fights. Kutsyi koed him with very mid ko power, he has 5 kos in 19 fights. And Jarrah koed him with leg kicks.

I know Silva is inconsistent but he still koed Tavares and gave Alex a good fight. He struggled with Weidman and Meerschaert because they are decent grapplers with a ton of experience. From what i remember he was sick with flu vs Gerald , and the Weidman fight he got out wrestled in round 1, which likely drained him a bit. I still consider him better with no ko losses, and heavy handed. Naurdiev wrestling and bjj is on par with Bruno, i dont see him being anywhere near Allen or Meerschaert to get the sub.

This fight screams bounce back fight for Bruno.

 

[Thesnake101]

Naurdiev i dont see it, i'm having tunnel vision? I've seen him get dropped multiple times. and his cardio looks average. Bandel dropped him and subbed, he has 1 ko win and 6 ko losses in 32 fights. Kutsyi also koed him with very mid ko power, he has 5 kos in 19 fights. And Jarrah koed him with leg kicks.

I know Silva is inconsistent but he still koed Tavares and gave Alex a good fight. He struggled with Weidman and Meerschaert because they are decent grapplers with a ton of experience. From what i remember he was sick with flu vs Gerald , and the Weidman fight he got out wrestled in round 1, which likely drained him a bit. I still consider him better with no ko losses, and heavy handed. Naurdiev wrestling and bjj is on par with Bruno, i dont see him being anywhere near Allen or Meerschaert to get the sub.

This fight screams bounce back fight for Bruno.

I wish I saw it, but imo at this point Bruno is damaged goods and will continue his slide. I can't look at an old, broken down Weidman schooling him everywhere and think that that's a guy who could get another win in the UFC, him having 1 win since 2021 is also a huge red flag for me, as is the fact that he got dropped by Meerschaert, Allen and hurt by Chris. Naurdiev is chinny but he still has his moments here and there, haven't seen that in Bruno since the Tavares fight.

It's a terrible fight between two very inconsistent guys but I have to side with youth here if anything.

Yep. Like...i think even another one on this card with Lerone right? Wasn't he like -190 and now -260? I guess it's not massive movement but yeah it feels like moderate favorites are getting bet to -3xx a lot lately.

100% Lerone at those odds feels crazy to me because of his fight with Santos. The Edson win is great but I still feel iffy about him vs a pressure fighter. Ige feels live to me but I could be biased.

Tbh my gut is telling me that a lot of dogs are live this card so maybe I did go nuts, lol.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I wish I saw it, but imo at this point Bruno is damaged goods and will continue his slide. I can't look at an old, broken down Weidman schooling him everywhere and think that that's a guy who could get another win in the UFC, him having 1 win since 2021 is also a huge red flag for me, as is the fact that he got dropped by Meerschaert, Allen and hurt by Chris. Naurdiev is chinny but he still has his moments here and there, haven't seen that in Bruno since the Tavares fight.

It's a terrible fight between two very inconsistent guys but I have to side with youth here if anything.

100% Lerone at those odds feels crazy to me because of his fight with Santos. The Edson win is great but I still feel iffy about him vs a pressure fighter. Ige feels live to me but I could be biased.

Tbh my gut is telling me that a lot of dogs are live this card so maybe I did go nuts, lol.

the tavares fight was 2023. The first round played a huge roll in him getting his gas tank drained vs wiedmen. he still had moments in that fight where he gave Weidman a bloody face.

I think losing to Marcin Bandel and Kutsyi is worst. To put it into context , Bandel would lose his next two fights via ko in the first. And Kutsyi has a can stacked record, a lot of his wins are obscure promotions with c-d grade fighters. Bandel was also 33 years old, much older than Naurdiev. Bruno is 35, but i don't see him being washed, he just has problems with wrestlers and grapplers that keep him guessing. Naurdiev likes to shoot, but he's not as good as Chris and Gerald for Bruno to really worry about. Even if Naurdiv could win, i think at this point it's a risk for those odds.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Topuria wasting time via cutting angles, Max can do enough output in that void sequences for the W.
T-Rex Max living in pocket we see that against Lamas, Gaethje, Poirier and he has that might to roll with the punches.
Ilia's rear straight is more like windmill, it can be easily countered and is easy to read.
From Holloway, we've seen that he's excellent when it comes to level changing takedown defense, but we haven't seen how he defends against someone with great Greco-Roman wrestling.
Lateral drops, outside trips and similar techniques could be weapons that Topuria will use. Holloway has a complete wrestling defense, takedown defense, scrambles, and a solid get-up game.
However, the biggest mystery is Topuria's control. Still... based on what we've seen so far, Holloway has shown in various situations that he knows how to get back to his feet and separate.

HOLLOWAY UD ( 49 - 46 )

Chimaev had a good camp, trains with Zhamalov, who is an Olympic gold medalist.
Even though he wrestled at 74 kg, the level of quality is still immense.
Whittaker has performed perfectly in scrambles so far, but he hasn’t faced an opponent with such a high level of wrestling who also poses submission threats.
In stand-up, that kind of pressure is crucial, we saw how he fared against DDP, who is raw and mainly relies on power and durability. Romero isn't really a relevant reference for this fight because wrestling wasn't his forte due to his neck surgery and today’s fighters are much more hybrid.

Chimaev 2R SUB ( RNC )

In the wrestling segment, since Rakic has been working with Babak, he has elevated his wrestling level, and I believe he can easily neutralize it. The biggest issue is stand-up, we've seen his holes in fights against Oezdemir, Blachowicz, and Prochazka. Those are the three main weapons that Ankalaev should use: pressure, low kicks, and power punches. When he feels that hard pressure, it becomes harder for him to find his distance, and he falls into a movement rhythm that isn't natural for him.

Ankalaev 2R TKO ( R hook to GNP )

Murphy will keep him at jab distance and from there will land his strikes, looking for level changing every time he enters the pocket. He shouldn't use kicks too much, as Ige can catch him with a counter. It's been a while since the fight against TKZ, but it showed that a fighter who doesn't have a serious takedown game, but is more dangerous on the ground, managed to take him down and control him. Mitchell demonstrated that again. Murphy doesn't have the same level of wrestling as Mitchell, but he can do better output in stand-up.

Murphy UD ( 30 - 27 )

Petrosyan has more fighting IQ, if he moves & clinch a lot can slow pace down and win a fight.
Shara is ultra-fast, and that might give him an advantage in striking, but he isn't more skilled when it comes to stand-up techniques. Shara has nonexistent takedown defense, but he's very aggressive on the ground and tries to inflict damage from the bottom position. Fighters who are calmer and can control that aggression can definitely keep him on the ground. Petrosyan has been in MMA long enough to secure a takedown at certain moments
Due to foreign territory split.

Petrosyan SD ( 29 - 28 )

Kickboxing always beats Capoeira due to its stance, greater durability, and more cerebral approach in exchanges.

Aslan KO R1 ( Jab, Cross )

It's a tricky fight. Neal doesn’t match up well with RDA in stand-up, while the opposite is true in wrestling. Neil Magny was able to take Neal down with a single leg and a deep double leg. Neal has excellent takedown defense, but when he gets taken down, he tends to be in trouble. The reason I give the edge to Neal is that he won’t rush in, he’ll take control of the octagon and steadily work on accumulating damage.

Neal TKO R3 ( L Bodykick )

Rebecki is too shorter, which will help him time his movements and defend takedowns. He’s known for giving a lot of trouble to caucasian wrestling style. If he can neutralize his opponent, he’ll be able to counter Orolbai's predictable strikes, as he keeps repeating the same combination with the same head movement each time.
Orolbai's path to victory is similar to Merab vs. Yan. If he can execute that strategy effectively and win dominantly, he has the potential to become a champion.
FOR VALUE.

Rebecki TKO R2 ( L Overhand )

Abus is dangerous in the first round, he'll be moving a lot and throwing plenty of kicks, but his cardio isn’t at a high level. Ferreira should apply pressure and perhaps look for takedowns to wear Abus gas tank down, then unleash his devastating boxing.

Ferreira TKO R2 ( GNP )

Nzechukwu will take a lot of strikes early on, but once Barnett starts to fade with his cardio, Nzechukwu will begin using his knees and elbows to dismantle him.

Nzechkwu TKO R2 ( Elbows )

Farid is the most hybrid fighter on the roster with very few weaknesses. Against Blackshear, he got stuck in the scissor guard and didn’t have many solutions, but those are micro-segments where Hugo definitely can't threaten him. I see opportunities for calf kicks, as both he and his brother seem vulnerable there. I expect complete domination and a smooth walk through the top 15.

Basharat UD ( 30 - 27 )
CHAMP 2028

Naurdiev should adopt a GM3-style approach and pressure him. As soon as he straightens the lines, he should look for level changing. On the other hand, we saw that Kutsyi caught him with an overhand while he was retreating. So both fighters have their weapons, but Silva doesn’t seem to have the timing needed to chase someone down effectively.

Naurdiev UD ( 29 - 28 )

Leal is coming in on short notice, and we don’t know if he’s ready to handle that pressure for 15 minutes. Rinat should focus on wrestling in the first round, and then he can pick Leal apart in stand-up. Leal is slower, which will give Rinat the space to execute his game plan effectively.

Fakhretdinov UD ( 30 - 26 )
CHAMP 2026

 

[Thesnake101]

the tavares fight was 2023. The first round played a huge roll in him getting his gas tank drained vs wiedmen. he still had moments in that fight where he gave Weidman a bloody face.

I think losing to Marcin Bandel and Kutsyi is worst. To put it into context , Bandel would lose his next two fights via ko in the first. And Kutsyi has a can stacked record, a lot of his wins are obscure promotions with c-d grade fighters. Bandel was also 33 years old, much older than Naurdiev. Bruno is 35, but i don't see him being washed, he just has problems with wrestlers and grapplers that keep him guessing. Naurdiev likes to shoot, but he's not as good as Chris and Gerald for Bruno to really worry about. Even if Naurdiv could win, i think at this point it's a risk for those odds.

At current odds Silva is definitely the side, but I wouldn't put much confidence in someone that's in such bad form.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?

 

[Thesnake101]

I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?

I'd try to split the prop bets with MLs just in case. Both MLs are pretty juicy in their own right and it's a failsafe.

 

[PuertoRican]

I’m thinking bets of -

MAIN BETS
1 unit Whittaker by KO/TKO at +380
1 unit Holloway by Decision at +400

INSURANCE BETS
1/4 unit Topuria by RD 1 KO/TKO at +500
1/4 unit Chimaev by RD 1 Sub at +600

Thoughts?

You will hate yourself if Whittaker wins a decision and Holloway wins inside the distance.

Also, I think Chimaev wins by TKO way more often than by submission in this matchup.