UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

what’s your read on Max? I haven’t taped

Ilia faded in his fight against Yousef Zalal that’s why he lost the third round on every single scorecard. Going five rounds with Josh Emmet, who is fairly low volume and who has a questionable gas tank himself, does not mean he is capable of going five rounds with a high-volume cardio machine like Max. If Ilia does not finish Max within the first two rounds he will fade over the final three rounds and lose a decision.

 

[Guld]

Ilia faded in his fight against Yousef Zalal that’s why he lost the third round on every single scorecard. Going five rounds with Josh Emmet, who is fairly low volume and who has a questionable gas tank himself, does not mean he is capable of going five rounds with a high-volume cardio machine like Max. If Ilia does not finish Max within the first two rounds he will fade over the final three rounds and lose a decision.

I agree with this. There is also a chance that Max drowns him in damage and gets a stoppage as well.
It's similar to the Khamzat fight IMO.
Ilia and Khamzat will be lethal early, and could get a finish, but Max and Whitaker should take over as the fight goes longer.
I think both fights have some great livebet potential as well because of this.

 

[mkess101]

he’s ranked 5 now. where would you rank him if he wins? Hill, hasnt beaten anyone since Glover, Jan last fight was a loss to Alex and Anklaev, and Jiri is the #1 , you’d have to put him there.


anyways doesn’t matter. Lets not stray too long here on this subject, it’s not that important imo on the fight.

I mean, I guess I can't believe a guy who hasn't won a fight in 3.5 years could be ranked #5 to be honest. However they are compiling these rankings, somehow you gotta find a way to move a guy down when he hasn't won in THAT long don't you? For example (and I get these guys aren't super highly ranked on his hit list) Ulberg has won SIX fights since Rakic last won. You can't rank Rakic above him, that's just ridiculous. Rountree is down to 8th for losing to the champ after 5 straight wins?? (All since Rakic last won a fight!)

I honestly hadn't looked much at rankings but I'm seriously glad you pointed this out. I'm dumbfounded as to how they compile these. It's as bad (or somehow worse) than how fights are judged LOL.

 

[mkess101]

I agree with this. There is also a chance that Max drowns him in damage and gets a stoppage as well.
It's similar to the Khamzat fight IMO.
Ilia and Khamzat will be lethal early, and could get a finish, but Max and Whitaker should take over as the fight goes longer.
I think both fights have some great livebet potential as well because of this.

The one difference between Bobby and Max is that we've seen Bobby's chin cracked (multiple times). Izzy got him. DDP got him. Khamzat isn't super technical striking but what he throws, he throws with heat. And if (when) he takes Bobby down, there's obviously the chance he advances to a dominant spot and tees off or locks up a sub. Absolutely if Bobby gets to rd 3 things change massively.

With Max...we've just never seen his chin even close to being cracked. It's not that it CAN'T happen, but seeing him eat clean shots from guys like Poirier and Gaethje and just walk through them should make people think long and hard as to whether they really think it's likely that Ilia finds a KO.

 

[burge13]

Illia boxing is so much but technical and crisp than Max. Max will get hit plenty but as people say, championship rounds will get very interesting. There won't be any grappling to gas Illia though, he should be ok

 

[Guld]

The one difference between Bobby and Max is that we've seen Bobby's chin cracked (multiple times). Izzy got him. DDP got him. Khamzat isn't super technical striking but what he throws, he throws with heat. And if (when) he takes Bobby down, there's obviously the chance he advances to a dominant spot and tees off or locks up a sub. Absolutely if Bobby gets to rd 3 things change massively.

With Max...we've just never seen his chin even close to being cracked. It's not that it CAN'T happen, but seeing him eat clean shots from guys like Poirier and Gaethje and just walk through them should make people think long and hard as to whether they really think it's likely that Ilia finds a KO.

Agreed on all points.
It's why I've personally put a prefight bet on Max and Khamzat.
My logic is that Ilia also starts slow, and Max is less likely to be finished, so I may not be able to get as great of liveodds bets on his fight. (The fact that his ML is +225 is ridiculous to me)
Whitaker on the other hand is more likely to be finished early (at least more likely than Max), and even less likely to win those first couple of rounds. So I have my bet on Khamzat initially for that, and the chances of nabbing a really juicy livebet with Rob seems more plausible.

 

[Guld]

Also, I'd like to point out that +225 Max ML.
Unless he's horribly injured/chinny from the weight cut/done for, then that line doesn't make any sense to me.
He just outstruck Gaethje. Soundly. Does Ilia truly hit harder than 155 Gaethje? Can he do it for five rounds?
If Gaethje was fighting Ilia, do you think the line would be +225 for Justin? Because I doubt it.
Volk was actually figuring Ilia out before his chin got crumpled.
Like, is this just a case of Ilia being the current hype train?
Or is Max truly over the hill and I'm just not properly clocking it?
Or does everyone expect Ilia to go crazy grappler mode and win that way?
Or is this a case of "Just play the juicy underdog odds, shut up, and hope for the best"? haha

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Also, I'd like to point out that +225 Max ML.
Unless he's horribly injured/chinny from the weight cut/done for, then that line doesn't make any sense to me.
He just outstruck Gaethje. Soundly. Does Ilia truly hit harder than 155 Gaethje? Can he do it for five rounds?
If Gaethje was fighting Ilia, do you think the line would be +225 for Justin? Because I doubt it.
Volk was actually figuring Ilia out before his chin got crumpled.
Like, is this just a case of Ilia being the current hype train?
Or is Max truly over the hill and I'm just not properly clocking it?
Or does everyone expect Ilia to go crazy grappler mode and win that way?
Or is this a case of "Just play the juicy underdog odds, shut up, and hope for the best"? haha

Ilia's boxing is much crisper and more technical than Gaethje. I guess that's what people are looking at.

He might also hit harder than Gaethje.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ilia's boxing is much crisper and more technical than Gaethje. I guess that's what people are looking at.

He might also hit harder than Gaethje.

he doesn’t defend kicks very well. volk was up on significant strikes before the ko.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Ilia faded in his fight against Yousef Zalal that’s why he lost the third round on every single scorecard. Going five rounds with Josh Emmet, who is fairly low volume and who has a questionable gas tank himself, does not mean he is capable of going five rounds with a high-volume cardio machine like Max. If Ilia does not finish Max within the first two rounds he will fade over the final three rounds and lose a decision.

Ilia took the Zalal fight on a week's notice in his UFC debut wasn't even on the roster and tested positive for COVID in that span IIRC. Max could def drown him late but using the gas tank from Zalal fight doesn't seem that relevant.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

he doesn’t defend kicks very well. volk was up on significant strikes before the ko.

Volk outstruck Max too though. Are we worried about Max landing a bunch of leg kicks here?

 

[ExitLUPin]

Max, Rakic and Petro are dogs I'm playing for sure straight ML. I like Rob too but I am gonna see late TKO numbers.

Rakic seems like a tough matchup for Ank. Ank's grappling is overrated he is the Dagestani with a combat sambo background so people think he's this monster grappler but he isn't. He is capable and has deadly GNP but his top pressure isn't much, not a sub threat and even his TDs aren't great. He has a 30% accuracy and in time he does get 1 he doesn't do much with it besides against Jan where he beat him up but everyone knows Jan is historically bad off his back. He's been out on his back and looked like a fish out of water his whole career including to guys like Gus and Cummins.

Rakic is more technical striker and I see the leg kicks being a massive problem. Thiago Santos off ACL surgery took 2 rounds standing with Ank and landed 30 leg kicks. Jan nearly crippled Ank with leg kicks and Rakic has the heaviest most damaging leg kicks in division. Jiri was in deep shit from them too. Ank does not have his pressure though and I think his attempts to tie up and grapple go nowhere. Alex and Jan are the only LHWs that can check Rakic kicks too. I just see Rakic out striking him probably decision. -450 Ank is crazy. He was -800 against Craig, -800 against Santos, -700 against Smith, -400 against Jan..... Like what are these lines even fights he wins he almost never covers these juiced up lines.

Petro is more technical striker than Shara and this is one of the few matchups where he has all grappling equity. Michal of all people had grappling upside against Shara LOL even while he was beaten up badly striking. Shara for his volume doesn't have much power either. I will be playing Petro point spread +3.5 because I don't see how he doesn't win a round at least and he doesn't have the power to KO him. Petro will be controlling range IMO so I don't see Shara opening up one of his one shot elbow or knee KOs which are his only paths to KOs for the most part.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Max, Rakic and Petro are dogs I'm playing for sure straight ML. I like Rob too but I am gonna see late TKO numbers.

Rakic seems like a tough matchup for Ank. Ank's grappling is overrated he is the Dagestani with a combat sambo background so people think he's this monster grappler but he isn't. He is capable and has deadly GNP but his top pressure isn't much, not a sub threat and even his TDs aren't great. He has a 30% accuracy and in time he does get 1 he doesn't do much with it besides against Jan where he beat him up but everyone knows Jan is historically bad off his back. He's been out on his back and looked like a fish out of water his whole career including to guys like Gus and Cummins.

Rakic is more technical striker and I see the leg kicks being a massive problem. Thiago Santos off ACL surgery took 2 rounds standing with Ank and landed 30 leg kicks. Jan nearly crippled Ank with leg kicks and Rakic has the heaviest most damaging leg kicks in division. Jiri was in deep shit from them too. Ank does not have his pressure though and I think his attempts to tie up and grapple go nowhere. Alex and Jan are the only LHWs that can check Rakic kicks too. I just see Rakic out striking him probably decision. -450 Ank is crazy. He was -800 against Craig, -800 against Santos, -700 against Smith, -400 against Jan..... Like what are these lines even fights he wins he almost never covers these juiced up lines.

Petro is more technical striker than Shara and this is one of the few matchups where he has all grappling equity. Michal of all people had grappling upside against Shara LOL even while he was beaten up badly striking. Shara for his volume doesn't have much power either. I will be playing Petro point spread +3.5 because I don't see how he doesn't win a round at least and he doesn't have the power to KO him. Petro will be controlling range IMO so I don't see Shara opening up one of his one shot elbow or knee KOs which are his only paths to KOs for the most part.

Petro isn't controlling range I don't think, he's much slower than Shara and he has much less range of offence to manage range with. He's going to struggle to manage range in a cage against a switch stance fighter who uses his kicks like a jab off either foot.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Petro isn't controlling range I don't think, he's much slower than Shara and he has much less range of offence to manage range with. He's going to struggle to manage range in a cage against a switch stance fighter who uses his kicks like a jab off either foot.

Armen has the much better jab and I actually think his leg kicks are gonna be an issue for the switch hitting like it was for Duncan who always switches a lot. Armen is good at catching kicks and Shara isn't as good a grappler as Duncan. I actually think this fight goes Similar to early dynamics of that fight Shara and Duncan have similar striking games but Shara has much worse TDD and his boxing is lacking. The jab and 1-2 will find a home, Shara will throw a lot of kicks but like Duncan miss a lot too IMO. I think he might have a moment or 2 where he stuns Petro but the jab, 1-2 and TDs will be problems that win rounds for him.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Armen has the much better jab and I actually think his leg kicks are gonna be an issue for the switch hitting like it was for Duncan who always switches a lot. Armen is good at catching kicks and Shara isn't as good a grappler as Duncan. I actually think this fight goes Similar to early dynamics of that fight Shara and Duncan have similar striking games but Shara has much worse TDD and his boxing is lacking. The jab and 1-2 will find a home, Shara will throw a lot of kicks but like Duncan miss a lot too IMO. I think he might have a moment or 2 where he stuns Petro but the jab, 1-2 and TDs will be problems that win rounds for him.

Shara's boxing isn't really relevant because he doesn't try and box. People don't really get into boxing range with him. I'd suggest checking out the Martynov fight to see what happens when he fights a really good boxer. He got caught with a few jabs before he figured out the timing and then beat the absolute piss out of him for the rest of the fight.

Takedown wise I only think it matters if someone is going to do something on top. If the guy on top isn't a good top player and doesn't know how to pass then Shara is just going to be hammering with elbows and in the UFC he's been given every round he spent time on his back IIRC because he's the one doing damage.

When it's someone like Fluffy, Nickal, Vettori, Hermansson, Dolidze etc who's going to be doing damage from the top and passing then it's more of a concern, but if it's a guy who's not really someone who spends a lot of time in guard then getting smashed with elbows to the dome is disorientating.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Shara's boxing isn't really relevant because he doesn't try and box. People don't really get into boxing range with him. I'd suggest checking out the Martynov fight to see what happens when he fights a really good boxer. He got caught with a few jabs before he figured out the timing and then beat the absolute piss out of him for the rest of the fight.

Takedown wise I only think it matters if someone is going to do something on top. If the guy on top isn't a good top player and doesn't know how to pass then Shara is just going to be hammering with elbows and in the UFC he's been given every round he spent time on his back IIRC because he's the one doing damage.

When it's someone like Fluffy, Nickal, Vettori, Hermansson, Dolidze etc who's going to be doing damage from the top and passing then it's more of a concern, but if it's a guy who's not really someone who spends a lot of time in guard then getting smashed with elbows to the dome is disorientating.

Good point about the grappling I might have overrated how effectively Armen will be scored there. I've seen the Martynov and his boxing did give him issues early but he isn't a kickboxer like Armen who will be able to kick with Shara IMO. Leg kicks especially for stance switching like against Duncan while Martynov doesn't have that overall kickboxing or kicking game like Armen. Armen is the much better boxer but he is gonna be able to compete and kick with Shara IMO which is the key difference.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Good point about the grappling I might have overrated how effectively Armen will be scored there. I've seen the Martynov and his boxing did give him issues early but he isn't a kickboxer like Armen who will be able to kick with Shara IMO. Leg kicks especially for stance switching like against Duncan while Martynov doesn't have that overall kickboxing or kicking game like Armen.

I don't think Duncan is in the same league as Shara striking wise tbh. He's got some flashy combos but he lacks the overall flow of everything flowing into the next thing that Shara has.

I think Shara would be one of the hardest fighters around to do much with leg kicks. He's not heavy at all on the front foot and his feet are barely planted, your timing would have to be exceptional.

I think you've probably got a higher chance of knocking him over with one than doing damage, but whether Armen wants to be there I'm not sure, it's certainly not his instinct.

 

[sonhow]

Now Max Holloway is defention of inconsistent fighter. At least when going against top level opposition. Theres no way that the one who fought Volk in second and third fight is the same guy. He looked scared shittles in that third fight. Super low volume as well. Meanwhile Volk didnt even look that great in the third fight its just that Max didnt offer anything back. I wouldnt just focus on the stylistic matchups I would also look at history. And history tends to repeat itself.
But either way its going to be a close one imo. I wouldnt suggest any bets on Top ML with these odds.

Edit. And by top competion I mean Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier. Seems he beats just about everyone else tho so maybe the critique isnt deserved

 

[Thesnake101]

Now Max Holloway is defention of inconsistent fighter. At least when going against top level opposition. Theres no way that the one who fought Volk in second and third fight is the same guy. He looked scared shittles in that third fight. Super low volume as well. Meanwhile Volk didnt even look that great in the third fight its just that Max didnt offer anything back. I wouldnt just focus on the stylistic matchups I would also look at history. And history tends to repeat itself.
But either way its going to be a close one imo. I wouldnt suggest any bets on Top ML with these odds.

Edit. And by top competion I mean Alexander Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier. Seems he beats just about everyone else tho so maybe the critique isnt deserved

Ya think? Lol. He's the definition of consistent, only problem was that Volk had him very well scouted and Dustin had size and power on his side.

5/7 losses were to the same two guys, and only 1 of the guys to beat him didn't go on to be a title contender. I think Ilia deserves to be the favorite, but I do find it ridiculous that he's a bigger one than Volk was heading into Max 2 & 3.

 

[sonhow]

Ya think? Lol. He's the definition of consistent, only problem was that Volk had him very well scouted and Dustin had size and power on his side.

5/7 losses were to the same two guys, and only 1 of the guys to beat him didn't go on to be a title contender. I think Ilia deserves to be the favorite, but I do find it ridiculous that he's a bigger one than Volk was heading into Max 2 & 3.

I think he gave too much respect to Volk in the third. Maybe just maybe it was Volks night but I see it more of a bad performance by Max. Bad comparison but Val-Grasso part 3 comes to mind.

About the odds if some quizzed me Id say Top -150. I dont get those either