UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[Guld]

Khamzat was cooked vs Usman by the end of that fight. He absolutely would've lost a 5 rounder, probably gotten finished. That doesn't mean he for sure gasses here if it goes late but it can't make anyone confident in his ability to go past rd 3.

Khamzat early or Rob late/decision.

He also recently went on another "my lungs are damaged, I need to retire" campaign since then I think.
I agree 100% on Khamzat early, or Rob after 3.
Initial Khamzat bet now, and wait for odds to swell/live odds for the Rob bet for me.

 

[PuertoRican]

First thoughts:

Whittaker/Chimaev O2.5 +105
Lerone decision
Shara Bullet decision
Geoff Neal decision
Orolbai ITD
Abus -135
Naurdiev -115 but people are betting on the other guy

 

[Stat_Collector]

Khamzat was cooked vs Usman by the end of that fight. He absolutely would've lost a 5 rounder, probably gotten finished. That doesn't mean he for sure gasses here if it goes late but it can't make anyone confident in his ability to go past rd 3.

Khamzat early or Rob late/decision.

likely. i avoid fights like these, an unreliable chin or gas tank.

 

[Stat_Collector]

First thoughts:

Whittaker/Chimaev O2.5 +105
Lerone decision
Shara Bullet decision
Geoff Neal decision
Orolbai ITD
Abus -135
Naurdiev -115 but people are betting on the other guy

I dont get the odds on Naurdiev.

Bruno Silva may be inconsistent, but Naurdiev would only dream of ever giving Alex Perreira a good fight. There is a clear durability advantage and power advantage here, even mma experience vs higher rated opponents, that is an easy Bruno bet for me. Ko prop

 

[mkess101]

likely. i avoid fights like these, an unreliable chin or gas tank.

Sometimes there can be some props with value but I hear ya

 

[Stat_Collector]

Sometimes there can be some props with value but I hear ya

maybe rob rounds 4-5 ko.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Watching Armen and Sharabullet i cant really tell who's better.

Armen wrestled Duncan in round 3, if the fight is very close, maybe Armen will exploit Shara's weak tdd and edge the scoring. Id like to see the decision line on that one.

 

[burge13]

Khamzat was cooked vs Usman by the end of that fight. He absolutely would've lost a 5 rounder, probably gotten finished. That doesn't mean he for sure gasses here if it goes late but it can't make anyone confident in his ability to go past rd 3.

Khamzat early or Rob late/decision.

Yeah I rewatched Chimaev/Usman last night and whilst Rob finishes him if he gets it to championship rounds (not the first time Chimaev has gassed so I see no reason to believe his gas tank is fixed now). The TD's he got in R1 were very easy and he had Usman in some terrible positions, it's no guarantee Rob survives those...

I think the value is on Rob still but live betting might be the way to go. Rob at + odds going into R3 would almost be an autobet. Chimaev will be a punching bag at that point, he hated the pressure of Usman in R3 let alone 2 more rounds

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Hellowhosthat]

On Rebecki, Shara, Abus and Bruno Silva.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Hugo/Farid

I think this is a much closer fight than the odds suggest. Farid is going almost 60/40 with Blackshear in sig. strikes, and 50/50 with Taylor. farid is coming off a higher-level win, but Hugo has a better grappling game than Taylor, and he is a proficient striker, who can throw well time overhands and leg kicks. Not a confident fight, super risky as always betting against an undefeated guy. Farid keeps his hands low, and has at times resorted to running away when he gets pressured.

Edit: probably pass, Hugo has questionable striking defense the more i tape.

Rebecki/Oralbai

Had thought about playing Rebecki until i noticed he had a massive reach disadvantage at 8 inches. Oralbai is kind of a slow methodical striker, but he has a decent enough jab to keep Rebecki away and win from the outside, they probably both cancel each other out in the grappling.

I doubt Orolbai is going to box from the outside, these dudes are going to crash together a lot.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Murphy is better everywhere, expect him to dominate similar to how Evloed did.
Farid and Rinat are champ materials.

 

[magpie878]

Not trying to make excuses for Chimaev, but he tore a ligament in his right hand during the Usman fight. That's certainly a big thing when you can't land bombs with your dominant/main hand.

That's the fight I want to see. The co-main. Been waiting for this one.

 

[mkess101]

Not trying to make excuses for Chimaev, but he tore a ligament in his right hand during the Usman fight. That's certainly a big thing when you can't land bombs with your dominant/main hand.

That's the fight I want to see. The co-main. Been waiting for this one.

That's fine, but doesn't help his gas tank. Maybe you could say his chances of a finish before he gassed were hampered (depending when he hurt his hand) but his problem seems to be having 2 rounds of cardio to fight at his pace. Which is good enough so far, but will it continue to be?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Murphy is better everywhere, expect him to dominate similar to how Evloed did.
Farid and Rinat are champ materials.

Murphy is out I think. There was talk of Jean Silva fighting Ige but not sure if that's official.

 

[Thesnake101]

Murphy is out I think. There was talk of Jean Silva fighting Ige but not sure if that's official.

It's been days since that talk and they still haven't announced anything, seems like it may have been a sham.

I mean, they announced Kennedy/Barnett and Rinat/Leal pretty quick compared to Ige/Silva.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I doubt Orolbai is going to box from the outside, these dudes are going to crash together a lot.

not like he'll be sticking and jiving like ALi. But he does have a steady jab and knows how to stand his ground mid range.

I dont know what to make of Rebecki, he is a good finisher and has an impressive ko over Loik.

But i've also seen him struggle with Nick Fiore.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Trying to decide if I should argue for 5 pages why I think Rakic is going to upset Ankalaev.

 

[mkess101]

not like he'll be sticking and jiving like ALi. But he does have a steady jab and knows how to stand his ground mid range.

I dont know what to make of Rebecki, he is a good finisher and has an impressive ko over Loik.

But i've also seen him struggle with Nick Fiore.

Cardio looked pretty bad vs Fereira. Once he didn't get the early finish, he was a sitting duck. Oralbai isn't a guy that he seems likely to run through, so imo he's gonna struggle badly.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Cardio looked pretty bad vs Fereira. Once he didn't get the early finish, he was a sitting duck. Oralbai isn't a guy that he seems likely to run through, so imo he's gonna struggle badly.

Ferreira is good against those kind of come forward hard punching grapple mix machines. He did similar to Mairbek Taisumov.