UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

[Stat_Collector]

Ferreira is good against those kind of come forward hard punching grapple mix machines. He did similar to Mairbek Taisumov.

The problem is that Oralbai has looked good in all his recent fights. He's had some slight instances where he ate a few clean shots here and there, but never seen him wobbled before. It's one of those make bread or go broke type of bets where you have maybe a 50/40 shot. I guess there is value there.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

The problem is that Oralbai has looked good in all his recent fights. He's had some slight instances where he ate a few clean shots here and there, but never seen him wobbled before. It's one of those make bread or go broke type of bets where you have maybe a 50/40 shot. I guess there is value there.

I see it as a 50/50 fight. Orolbai didn't have it all his own way against Brener and I'd personally rate Rebecki as more physical and better than Brener.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I see it as a 50/50 fight. Orolbai didn't have it all his own way against Brener and I'd personally rate Rebecki as more physical and better than Brener.

But Brener is ok, he has two good wins against Guram and Zabaira. I thought Orolbai won that decisively, there were brief moments where he lost some grappling exchanges, and he was mounted briefly.

It will no doubt be competitive, but Rebecki can be a little reckless with his defense. I don't know if i've ever seen Orolbai lose his composure, if he weathers the early storm, with his reach and wrestling, he will turn the tables fast.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

But Brener is ok, he has two good wins against Guram and Zabaira. I thought Orolbai won that decisively, there were brief moments where he lost some grappling exchanges, and he was mounted briefly.

It will no doubt be competitive, but Rebecki can be a little reckless with his defense. I don't know if i've ever seen Orolbai lose his composure, if he weathers the early storm, with his reach and wrestling, he will turn the tables fast.

It probably comes down to round 2. I'd expect Rebecki to win the first unless he gets clipped hard, I'd probably expect Orolbai to win the third if it goes that far. Depends how fast Rebecki slows in round 2.

 

[mkess101]

Trying to decide if I should argue for 5 pages why I think Rakic is going to upset Ankalaev.


View attachment 1067867

You shouldn't LOL. Ankalaev is gonna smash him. Maybe standing, maybe take him down and maul him on the mat.

To be fair, odds reflect this so it's not like I'm being bold here...

 

[mkess101]

Ferreira is good against those kind of come forward hard punching grapple mix machines. He did similar to Mairbek Taisumov.

Agree, but imo Oralbai will be too.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Going with Ibo as well as I checked my notes on Cerquiera and they're not very complimentary.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You shouldn't LOL. Ankalaev is gonna smash him. Maybe standing, maybe take him down and maul him on the mat.

To be fair, odds reflect this so it's not like I'm being bold here...

challenge accepted, you just released the genie.


Here are a few keynotes why I think Rakic is a bad matchup for Ankalaev.

• Ankalaev has poor leg kick defense. He was limping in round three on one leg vs Jan, and he had his leg swollen red and blue vs Santos. This reflects in the stats as well.
• The score cards vs Santos and Jan are as follows:
• Jan vs Ankalaev, all three judges gave Jan the win in the first 3 rounds. This is a 3 rounder not 5 so it matters only the first 3.

vs Santos

• Ankalaev would have lost to Jan in a 3 rounder, and a split dec win on Santos. Different judges that night could have given the nod to Santos because Ankalaev simply gets hit a lot on the lead leg.
• Rakic is a better kicker than Jan and Santos. you can tell by the snap and speed , and has high stats in leg kicks. Best in the lhw next to Alex.
• Rakic vs Jan was 1-1 going into round 3 and the injury cut his chances short. And he won vs Santos, he won both 1-2 rounds ud because of the cleaner heavier shots.
• Rakic is solid grappler. He has 86% tdd and has used grappling to win fights. Against Smith he won with 12 mins ctrl, and he took down Jan and ctrl him for 4 mins. No one has ever out grappled Rakic, it's simply not a weakness for him. An Ankalaev has an average ctrl time of 1:30 to like 2:00 mins in his average time. It's not a main method for him to win fights.
• Ankalaev knockout rating vs top ten fighters is 2 kos and 4 decisions, 2 kos to Walker and Smith who are both chinny.
• Rakic got koed by Jiri who has the highest amount of kos in mma lhw division, he's much heavier handed than Ankalaev.
• The main reason Ankalaev may not ko Rakic is that Ankalaev is a counter puncher who sits in the pocket and waits for the perfect counter. In order to ko Rakic, you have to push the gas and not let him off the hook, you basically have to risk it swinging like Jiri did, but that is not how Ankalaev fights. Lets remember that Rakic won round 1 vs Jiri and was defending very well untill Jiri rolled the dice. Rakic also ate a lot of heavy shots before he gave in to the pressure, his chin solid.
• Ankalev said in an interview that he believes Rakic is his toughest fight to date. He knows this is not a favorable matchup.
• Styles make fights, don't believe the ufc marketing machine or the casual view that life is a script and there are narratives that give fighters plot armor, this is sports, anyone can lose.

 

[mkess101]

challenge accepted, you just released the genie.


Here are a few keynotes why I think Rakic is a bad matchup for Ankalaev.

• Ankalaev has poor leg kick defense. He was limping in round three on one leg vs Jan, and he had his leg swollen red and blue vs Santos. This reflects in the stats as well.
• The score cards vs Santos and Jan are as follows:
• Jan vs Ankalaev, all three judges gave Jan the win in the first 3 rounds. This is a 3 rounder not 5 so it matters only the first 3.

View attachment 1067882


vs Santos
View attachment 1067883

• Ankalaev would have lost to Jan in a 3 rounder, and a split dec win on Santos. Different judges that night could have given the nod to Santos because Ankalaev simply gets hit a lot on the lead leg.
• Rakic is a better kicker than Jan and Santos. you can tell by the snap and speed , and has high stats in leg kicks. Best in the lhw next to Alex.
• Rakic vs Jan was 1-1 going into round 3 and the injury cut his chances short. And he won vs Santos, he won both 1-2 rounds ud because of the cleaner heavier shots.
• Rakic is solid grappler. He has 86% tdd and has used grappling to win fights. Against Smith he won with 12 mins ctrl, and he took down Jan and ctrl him for 4 mins. No one has ever out grappled Rakic, it's simply not a weakness for him. An Ankalaev has an average ctrl time of 1:30 to like 2:00 mins in his average time. It's not a main method for him to win fights.
• Ankalaev knockout rating vs top ten fighters is 2 kos and 4 decisions, 2 kos to Walker and Smith who are both chinny.
• Rakic got koed by Jiri who has the highest amount of kos in mma lhw division, he's much heavier handed than Ankalaev.
• The main reason Ankalaev may not ko Rakic is that Ankalaev is a counter puncher who sits in the pocket and waits for the perfect counter. In order to ko Rakic, you have to push the gas and not let him off the hook, you basically have to risk it swinging like Jiri did, but that is not how Ankalaev fights. Lets remember that Rakic won round 1 vs Jiri and was defending very well untill Jiri rolled the dice. Rakic also ate a lot of heavy shots before he gave in to the pressure, his chin solid.
• Ankalev said in an interview that he believes Rakic is his toughest fight to date. He knows this is not a favorable matchup.
• Styles make fights, don't believe the ufc marketing machine or the casual view that life is a script and there are narratives that give fighters plot armor, this is sports, anyone can lose.

You make some good points. Enough to have me betting Rakic? Probably not, but I wasn't likely to pay that juice on Ankalaev either. Was considering an Ank itd play but def need to research a bit more.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You make some good points. Enough to have me betting Rakic? Probably not, but I wasn't likely to pay that juice on Ankalaev either. Was considering an Ank itd play but def need to research a bit more.

if a dec line is 1000+ knowing Ankalaev is likely to make it to the end because he's good, a 1000+ odds decision can make you change your mind.

You might even get a 250+ over 2.5 and it will likely hit. Hec I can see a Split dec for Racik prolly in the 3000+ area. so many chances here.

It's never easy to bet against good fighter, but i do believe i gave good reasons to not just fade Ankalaev but to prop bet dec or ML for Racik , not like you're getting even odds here.

 

[Thesnake101]

Santos pulls out of the Said fight. Sucks because I was very confident in Said outpointing him and was planning to bet him.

 

[mkess101]

if a dec line is 1000+ knowing Ankalaev is likely to make it to the end because he's good, a 1000+ odds decision can make you change your mind.

You might even get a 250+ over 2.5 and it will likely hit. Hec I can see a Split dec for Racik prolly in the 3000+ area. so many chances here.

It's never easy to bet against good fighter, but i do believe i gave good reasons to not just fade Ankalaev but to prop bet dec or ML for Racik , not like you're getting even odds here.

I mean yeah, if the book I'm gonna bet at gives crazy odds on Rakic dec/split I'd bite. I have to go on a work trip and am stopping at a Fanduel book on the way back, so really will depend on Fanduel odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean yeah, if the book I'm gonna bet at gives crazy odds on Rakic dec/split I'd bite. I have to go on a work trip and am stopping at a Fanduel book on the way back, so really will depend on Fanduel odds.

if the odds keep shifting to Ankalev, a lot of the parlays will have him there, i see this swaying Rakic odds to the 450+ region. That will push the value even further. I'm expecting the odds right now for a dec to be in the 500-800+ area. I asked the chat bot this question, so it's likely citing sources.

 

[mkess101]

Murphy is better everywhere, expect him to dominate similar to how Evloed did.
Farid and Rinat are champ materials.

Rinat damn sure didn't look like champion material in his last 2 fights. Gassed and got 10-8'd in rd 3 on the way to a draw and then lackluster vs Dalby? Not getting "champion vibes" there.

 

[mkess101]

if the odds keep shifting to Ankalev, a lot of the parlays will have him there, i see this swaying Rakic odds to the 450+ region. That will push the value even further. I'm expecting the odds right now for a dec to be in the 500-800+ area. I asked the chat bot this question, so it's likely siting sources.

+800 dec I'd play for sure.

 

[sonhow]

Rinat damn sure didn't look like champion material in his last 2 fights. Gassed and got 10-8'd in rd 3 on the way to a draw and then lackluster vs Dalby? Not getting "champion vibes" there.

Rinat clearly lost to Dalby. Up there in robberies of this year.

 

[sonhow]

challenge accepted, you just released the genie.


Here are a few keynotes why I think Rakic is a bad matchup for Ankalaev.

• Ankalaev has poor leg kick defense. He was limping in round three on one leg vs Jan, and he had his leg swollen red and blue vs Santos. This reflects in the stats as well.
• The score cards vs Santos and Jan are as follows:
• Jan vs Ankalaev, all three judges gave Jan the win in the first 3 rounds. This is a 3 rounder not 5 so it matters only the first 3.

View attachment 1067882


vs Santos
View attachment 1067883

• Ankalaev would have lost to Jan in a 3 rounder, and a split dec win on Santos. Different judges that night could have given the nod to Santos because Ankalaev simply gets hit a lot on the lead leg.
• Rakic is a better kicker than Jan and Santos. you can tell by the snap and speed , and has high stats in leg kicks. Best in the lhw next to Alex.
• Rakic vs Jan was 1-1 going into round 3 and the injury cut his chances short. And he won vs Santos, he won both 1-2 rounds ud because of the cleaner heavier shots.
• Rakic is solid grappler. He has 86% tdd and has used grappling to win fights. Against Smith he won with 12 mins ctrl, and he took down Jan and ctrl him for 4 mins. No one has ever out grappled Rakic, it's simply not a weakness for him. An Ankalaev has an average ctrl time of 1:30 to like 2:00 mins in his average time. It's not a main method for him to win fights.
• Ankalaev knockout rating vs top ten fighters is 2 kos and 4 decisions, 2 kos to Walker and Smith who are both chinny.
• Rakic got koed by Jiri who has the highest amount of kos in mma lhw division, he's much heavier handed than Ankalaev.
• The main reason Ankalaev may not ko Rakic is that Ankalaev is a counter puncher who sits in the pocket and waits for the perfect counter. In order to ko Rakic, you have to push the gas and not let him off the hook, you basically have to risk it swinging like Jiri did, but that is not how Ankalaev fights. Lets remember that Rakic won round 1 vs Jiri and was defending very well untill Jiri rolled the dice. Rakic also ate a lot of heavy shots before he gave in to the pressure, his chin solid.
• Ankalev said in an interview that he believes Rakic is his toughest fight to date. He knows this is not a favorable matchup.
• Styles make fights, don't believe the ufc marketing machine or the casual view that life is a script and there are narratives that give fighters plot armor, this is sports, anyone can lose.

Damn I hope you are right. Much more fun if Rakic wins. Unfortuantely the pessimist in me tells he will not show up. Reason good or not people seem to completely freeze when fighting muslim fighters in the part of the world. Well that or they get robbed like Dalby heh.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Damn I hope you are right. Much more fun if Rakic wins. Unfortuantely the pessimist in me tells he will not show up. Reason good or not people seem to completely freeze when fighting muslim fighters in the part of the world. Well that or they get robbed like Dalby heh.

i had to repost, cause i thought you meant something else.

I dont know if he will, but he is probably flown in already to avoid jet lag. Dont those guys usually fly a week early?

Just look out for ig posting and he'll likely follow through. No one is flying that far to cancel.

 

[sonhow]

i had to repost, cause i thought you meant something else.

I dont know if he will, but he is probably flown in already to avoid jet lag. Dont those guys usually fly a week early?

Just look out for ig posting and he'll likely follow through. No one is flying that far to cancel.

He will not show up as in he will not have a performance in standard of his usual level. If he were to fight at his absolute best I would agree that he should give him a tough fight. But I don't know.
Ankalaev has snake charmed Ozdemir and destroyed Walker and Smith in abu dhabi. None3 of these guys are as good as Rakic though. Lets hope you are right.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He will not show up as in he will not have a performance in standard of his usual level. If he were to fight at his absolute best I would agree that he should give him a tough fight. But I don't know.
Ankalaev has snake charmed Ozdemir and destroyed Walker and Smith in abu dhabi. None3 of these guys are as good as Rakic though. Lets hope you are right.

This fight puts him in contention for a big money fight with Alex. it’s now or never.