News UFC 295 odds: With Jon Jones injured, Tom Aspinall opens as early betting favorite over Sergei Pavlo

[Kohelet]

UFC 295 odds: With Jon Jones injured, Tom Aspinall opens as early betting favorite over Sergei Pavlovich
Aspinall and Pavlovich are separated by just two spots in the official UFC rankings.

Jon Jones is injured and will not be defending his heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic.

Instead, the upcoming UFC 295 pay-per-view (PPV) card on Nov. 11 in New York will feature the interim 265-pound title fight between top contenders Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich, with the former opening as the early betting favorite.

Jones Vs Miocic Headed To ‘Big Card’ In 2024[/paste:font]
That’s according to the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag.

We set odds for the Aspinall-Pavlovich fight this morning, opening Aspinall as a -125 favorite (Pavlovich +105). Early action came in on the favorite, bumping him to as high as -150, but the line has moved again and here are the current odds: Tom Aspinall -136 vs. Sergei Pavlovich (+116).

Expect those numbers to keep fluctuating as we inch closer to fight night.

opinion:
the odds are quite strange, should be a lot closer to 50-50

 

[TempleoftheDog]

I think it may end up as a pick em. I’m not even sure who I think will win. But I’m leaning towards Pavlovich. That guy has real KO power.

 

[Koala]

Brits love to bet. I expect Aspinall to be the betting favourite
Odds on Till vs Woodley were even

 

[Kohelet]

I think it may end up as a pick em. I’m not even sure who I think will win. But I’m leaning towards Pavlovich. That guy has real KO power.

I also gives the edge to pav, he is a silent and calm killer, waiting for his chance and then shot, almost never hit the air

 

[spinup]

I really love that fight, 2 very intense HW who like to finish it fast.

 

[Spam On Rye]

Aspinall is gonna be the quicker and more well rounded fighter but Pav is an absolute killer. Regardless of the outcome, the fans win. HW is back baby!

 

[Gabe]

I got Pavlovich by KO, round 1

 

[Kohelet]

Aspinall is gonna be the quicker and more well rounded fighter but Pav is an absolute killer. Regardless of the outcome, the fans win. HW is back baby!

aspinall is very quick for HW can't recall an HW with a similar hand speed (and kicks)

 

[Spam On Rye]

aspinall is very quick for HW can't recall an HW with a similar hand speed (and kicks)

Yeah he's the new breed man. I feel like being on the lower end of the weight class and having speed will serve him well in his career. Dude's fun to watch. Just wanna see him get tested.

 

[HI SCOTT NEWMAN]

I think Tom has a good chance to win, punching power is good against slow and flat footed opponents who is everyone Pavlovich has fought so far in UFC, except Overeem who has a high skill level. But Tom is very fast and not clumsy and slow.. I think he got the skills to win this fight.

 

[magpie878]

Pavlovich has the potential to end the fight, even quickly, via striking.

Aspinall has the potential to end the fight, even quickly, via striking or ground game.

I much prefer this matchup. Really looking forward to it.

 

[2432sj]

I’m more interested in this fight than I was in Jones-Miocic.

 

[ForemanFan]

Pavlovich will make it look easy, he obliterates Aspinall quickly.

 

[usernamee]

when Pav goes in for one of his barrages Tom will duck under and take him down, proceed to dominate from there on route to a finish eventually

 

[magpie878]

I'm not sure why anyone would be supremely confident in an easy Pavlovich win.

You can question the quality of Aspinall's wins, sure. But Pavovich? Beat Blayes, which I'd say was a good win if it was a few years ago. Blaydes' last 5, he has not looked all that impressive. And one of those was against Aspinall, who immediately hurt his knee and we learned nothing. Who else? Tuivasa, who can't beat anyone good? Lewis, who'd been quitting left and right? Old man Shamil? Maurice Green? Poop emoji.

I don't think Aspinall's foolish enough to stand there and get steamrolled. He can definitely get clipped. I'm leaning more towards what @usernamee said, that he avoids a barrage and takes him down.

 

[glenn777]

I'm not sure why anyone would be supremely confident in an easy Pavlovich win.

You can question the quality of Aspinall's wins, sure. But Pavovich? Beat Blayes, which I'd say was a good win if it was a few years ago. Blaydes' last 5, he has not looked all that impressive. And one of those was against Aspinall, who immediately hurt his knee and we learned nothing. Who else? Tuivasa, who can't beat anyone good? Lewis, who'd been quitting left and right? Old man Shamil? Maurice Green? Poop emoji.

I don't think Aspinall's foolish enough to stand there and get steamrolled. He can definitely get clipped. I'm leaning more towards what @usernamee said, that he avoids a barrage and takes him down.

All true but Aspinall is taking this short notice where as Pav has been in camp ready to be the backup

 

[Fight Professor]

Pavlovich KO in the first or Aspinall sub in the 3rd.

 

[JustOnce]

Problem is Sergei looked like dogshit ala Gane off his back against Overeem. That has to be why he's an underdog.

I think Aspinall comes in with his Volkov gameplan to the dot, low kicks, combination and TDs.

Sergei with what he always does.

This is an epic fight. I think Sergei takes him out of there. But Aspinall, Gane, Sergei are the very best heavyweight prospects of recent memories.

I do think Sergei hits a lot harder than Aspinall and you can land on Aspinall if you can withstand his attack. I think Sergei will.

 

[Gotosleepho]

Pavlovich vs Aspinall is a great fight. I'll take Pavlovich by KO.

 

[HatKick]

I have Tom as a comfortable favorite. He's more than capable of defending himself on the feet, and when the time is right he'll take Sergei to the mat and it will be the beginning of the end.