UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

For anyone who is taking Burns - How do you see him handling the wresling and physicality of Usman?

I can see Usman wrestling way more here than the Colby fight, totally different match up. Burns has good BJJ but it's very unlikely that someone at this level gets subbed from bottom

Yeah...early on I think Usman is more likely to use wall n stall to just tire Burns out. Maybe he'll be comfortable taking Burns down against the cage too, even top tier guard players are gonna have a really hard time getting anything going against a top flight guy when smashed up against the cage. The safest place for Usman early though is probably standing but with Burns back pushed against the cage.

A couple rounds of that and I could see Usman switching to a more purely wrestling based game plan where he's hunting TD's and top control. Burns tired and both guys sweaty, the threat of Gilbert off his back evaporates.

I could be wrong, but I don't see Whitman letting Usman fall into the trap of wanting to strike at distance. If he does that there's danger.
 
it seems that people are confident that burns/usman will go to decision but +150 for under 4.5 rounds seems like the route i'm gonna go.

I was looking at the over/under line as well. The problem is if we assume Usman wins this fight using control primarily then how does he finish? I will be very surprised to see Usman find a finish at any point in this fight.

Usman did recently finish Colby but prior to that it was just a long string of decisions.

In his last 10 fights he went to decision 8 times.
 
Im on Zaleski. Ok the feet is 50 50 imo. On the ground Zaleski have good top control and much better grappling. 1u on Zaleski ML
 
I think Usman will stand with Burns which is why I’m betting Burns here. I think his activity and desire is going to push him past Usman.

Usman is legit strong and could definitely dominate Burns in the wrestling so I’m hoping he got hooked on striking after his win over Chaos and decided to trade with Burns to prove a point.

i think Usman will try and strike early and if that doesn’t work will turn it into a grappling fight.
 
I was looking at the over/under line as well. The problem is if we assume Usman wins this fight using control primarily then how does he finish? I will be very surprised to see Usman find a finish at any point in this fight.

Usman did recently finish Colby but prior to that it was just a long string of decisions.

In his last 10 fights he went to decision 8 times.
imo Burns is the pick here at +167 (for me). I don't think he is going to be as cautious as he was with Woodley who has that right hand cocked back. IF Usman is going to win, it will be through a long and ugly LnP style fight. I don't think he wants to even take the risk of fighting Burns on the feet. I hope Burns uses the guillotine as a weapon to deter Usman from shooting on him, maybe we'll see a lot of wall N stall and drag down style take downs from Usman.
 
Someone please enlighten me as to why Martin Day is such a big fav over Davey Grant
 
Tricky main event. There's value on burns. Feel usman gets the dec after a competitive fight but would love to see gilbert get the ko.

Volkanovski by decision is the most likely outcome. It goes the distance either way.

aldo ko line is interesting. It's his only ptv.

Who tf knows with rose. She should win but not confident at all. Pass

Rip paige but taking ribas at that price is asking for problems lol pass
 
Someone please enlighten me as to why Martin Day is such a big fav over Davey Grant
I have no idea either it should Grant who should the favorite i saw his tapes i would prefer Grant fighting IQ.
 
Big ol' circle jerk on Burns.

No one has really shown a successful counter to Usman's smothering style. He has slowly put together an 11 fight win streak in the UFC while being incredibly boring.

My heart wants Burns to win as he has climbed the ranks in an exciting and unexpected way. My head says that Usman grinds him out to a boring 5 round unanimous decision.

I hate his style and it is bad for the sport to have champions that employ it.
 
Bets made
  • 2u bet on Burns +175, 0.2 Burns decision +850. Not really sure what Usman's game plan will be but I feel Burns is stylistically a bad matchup for him.
  • 2.75u bet on Volkan 1.74 because Jiri is just plain bad and has been beating over the hill scrubs in Rizin.
Bets I'm considering at first glance
  • Volkanovski decision +110, I think the fight will be similar to the first with Holloway having a little more success than the first time. +300 Holloway decision isn't a bad bet either.
  • Will wait for Rose decision odds as its hard to play her ML at 1.53 knowing how mentally fragile she is, but she will probably win much like the first fight only without the slam this time.
  • Yans KO +150, I really hope I'm wrong about this one but if Aldo can't get him out of there quickly I don't see him lasting the whole 5 rounds.

What's a u?

New to the betting forum.
 
What's a u?

New to the betting forum.

U mean "unit". People bet in units rather than dollar amounts. One guys small bet is $5 and someone else has a small bet of $100. Typically 5 units is a huge play and 1 unit is a standard bet size.

In theory a unit is 1% of your total bankroll but I don't know how many people really use it in that way.
 
The heat more likely to see finishes, or fighters too gassed to force the finish and we see heaps hit the cards?
Assume big cage too?

Must be the only sport in the world where the playing surface area changes regularly. So dumb
 
What's a u?

New to the betting forum.

Here is an article that explains units in more detail.

What is a Unit in Sports Betting?


A common question from new or casual sports bettors is “What is a unit?”. A popular term in sports betting is “unit” and below I will explain what bettors mean they refer to a unit, and examples of it being used.

A “unit” in sports betting is a measurement of the size of someone’s bet. Because everyone has different sized bankrolls for sports betting, using the term unit is a way for us to show your profit or loss in universal terms.

Someone who is betting $10,000 per bet against the spread in NFL and is up $18,000 on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as someone who bets $10 per bet against the spread and is up $180 on the season. Using units gives us a tool to keep track of profits and losses without the dollar value.

Because basic sports betting strategy tells us that you should be betting somewhere between 1-5% of your bankroll on each wager, it is generally accepted that a unit is equal to approximately 1% of your bankroll. Nothing is set on stone with this, but that is an easy way to calculate a single unit.

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/what-is-a-unit/
 
Last edited:
The heat more likely to see finishes, or fighters too gassed to force the finish and we see heaps hit the cards?
Assume big cage too?

Must be the only sport in the world where the playing surface area changes regularly. So dumb
Yeah it's going to be big cage, only the vegas cards are small cage atm.
 
"The UFC told ESPN that there will be air conditioning in the UFC 251 venue and the temps will be at a comfortable level." This was on ESPN's "UFC 251- What we know and don't know about 'fight island' page."
The previous events in the middle east had air conditioning too but fans/fighters still said it was bloody hot in the arena
 
Back
Top