UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Oezdemir was 1.78 at my book and I balked at it. Now 1.61 so I missed the boat, think that's about right
 
Usman-dec
Volknaski-Dec
Yan-Dec
Andrarde-Ko2
Ribas-Dec
Prozaka-Ko1
Dos Santos-Sub2
Amirakhani-Dec
Santos-dec
Romanov-Ko2
Zhumagulov-Dec
Melo-Dec
Grant-Dec
 
Betting aside, this is a fucking nice card

I need to watch some Yan -230 and I think he could be a lock on this sad aging Aldo

I’m probably in the minority, but I really think Halloway can make the adjustments against Volk. I don’t see him being a sitting duck against that lead leg kick a 2nd time in a row. Max will be able to keep Volk at his distance to point out a decision this time.

Need to dig up more Burns but I’m unimpressed. His Woodley won was more about Woodley not fighting than anything Burns did. -200 Usman doesn’t look bad.

+500 Paige is a lot. She probably loses, but that’s a hefty return for her to maybe be slightly more than a surgically altered pretty girl

Rose Namajunas staying away from at -200. She’s immensely talented but always have to worry about her head space. But if she shows up don’t want any money on other girl
 
Will wait for Rose decision odds as its hard to play her ML at 1.53 knowing how mentally fragile she is, but she will probably win much like the first fight only without the slam this time.
Bene, Rose was visibly slowing down after that first round. She can't keep away Andrade for 3 rounds. My prediction: 1st round is for Rose, and if she doesn't get finished the 2nd will be a toss up and the 3rd will be for Andrade for sure. This is a trap fight for betting IMO.
2u bet on Burns +175, 0.2 Burns decision +850. Not really sure what Usman's game plan will be but I feel Burns is stylistically a bad matchup for him.
I like that little sprinkle on the decision line just because of the value. He can surprise us, who the hell knows! And I don't see a KO or SUB path for him, only decision, Usman fights safe and is too tough to get finished. But in reality, Usman should win this fight. As other posters have said, he can cage grind and outcardio Burns for 5 no problem. Burns' win vs. Woodley was impressive, but Usman is a much, much tougher opponent.
Yans KO +150, I really hope I'm wrong about this one but if Aldo can't get him out of there quickly I don't see him lasting the whole 5 rounds.
I agree. But Yan is not a giant fearless 145er in Max Holloway who is pushing the pace from the get go. Yan is much more cautious, at least for a round, round and a half, until he gets his reads. And this is his first UFC championship fight, it's very important for him to not waste this opportunity making a stupid mistake. He'll be extra cautious. The smart thing is to outpoint Aldo. And from what I see, Yan looks like a smart fighter.
 
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Bene, Rose was visibly slowing down after that first round. She can't keep away Andrade for 3 rounds. My prediction: 1st round is for Rose, and if she doesn't get finished the 2nd will be a toss up and the 3rd will be for Andrade for sure. This is a trap fight for betting IMO.
I like that little sprinkle on the decision line just because of the value.
He can surprise us, who the hell knows! And I don't see a KO or SUB path for him, only decision, Usman fights safe and is too tough to get finished. But in reality, Usman should win this fight. As other posters have said, he can cage grind and outcardio Burns for 5 no problem. Burns' win vs. Woodley was impressive, but Usman is a much, much tougher opponent.
I agree. But Yan is not a giant fearless 145er in Max Holloway who is pushing the pace from the get go. Yan is much more cautious, at least for a round, round and a half, until he gets his reads. And this is his first UFC championship fight, it's very important for him to not waste this opportunity making a stupid mistake. He'll be extra cautious. The smart thing is to outpoint Aldo. And from what I see, Yan looks like a smart fighter.
On The flipside I think Andrades chin is gone but I woudlnt touch this fight. 50/50

I remember Angela Hill even rocked her, her chin was always suspect
 
...
But Yan is not a giant fearless 145er in Max Holloway who is pushing the pace from the get go. Yan is much more cautious, at least for a round, round and a half, until he gets his reads. And this is his first UFC championship fight, it's very important for him to not waste this opportunity making a stupid mistake. He'll be extra cautious. The smart thing is to outpoint Aldo. And from what I see, Yan looks like a smart fighter.

While Petr isn't a giant he is not smaller than Aldo either, and he's as fearless as they come.
Your wording makes him seem like a cautious point fighter, which he is not at all.
He is always willing to throw down and he will try to push the pace, that's why he is called Petr "NO MERCY" Yan.

Two (connected) points why I do not like Aldo here:
1) Petr is used to that weight class while Aldo is not.
Aldo looked great against Moraes but his next weight cut might not work out as good.
You have to keep in mind that it's a huge weight cut for almost 34- year old Aldo, plus
2) the fight happens in Abu Dhabi.
in 2007 Aldo fought in Japan for Pancrase.
Since that Aldo has only fought in Brazil, Canada and the U.S.
It is the first event on "Fight Island", isn't it? Who knows how the logistics will work out, he might have a way harder time cutting weight over there.
 
Usman moved his camp to Denver to train under Trevor Wittman + Justin Gaetje. IF anyone didn't see. Personally I still don't think this helps Usman who has a history of 2 bad knees. He's not throwing Gaetje level kicks on Burns.
 
Usman moved his camp to Denver to train under Trevor Wittman + Justin Gaetje. IF anyone didn't see. Personally I still don't think this helps Usman who has a history of 2 bad knees. He's not throwing Gaetje level kicks on Burns.

Yeah...but Whitman is a brilliant game planner. So maybe a wash.
 
Yeah this is a big + for Usman, even more confident than I already was and that was high.
Is it though? First time switching camps for a big fight. Eh, I am biased because of Burns so thats my reasoning.
 
So I had been thinking Pater Yan a lock at -230 against an again Aldo but I rewatched the Fabre fight, another past his prime opponent, and yeah he got multiple knockdowns but he also like.... didn’t do anything. Just stood there with a shell guard up and then was able to connect hard on clinch exits

I still don’t want to bet on Aldo but I’m suddenly not nearly as sure on Yan. My bookie doesn’t have over/under yet but an over 2.5 might make more sense. Odds should be decent with Yan’s power but if neither he nor Aldo engage could just be a snooze fest
 
Bene, Rose was visibly slowing down after that first round. She can't keep away Andrade for 3 rounds. My prediction: 1st round is for Rose, and if she doesn't get finished the 2nd will be a toss up and the 3rd will be for Andrade for sure. This is a trap fight for betting IMO.
I'm going by memory so I may be mistaken but I don't remember the fight looking like the tide was going to turn before the slam, but my memory is shit so you may be right. I'll have to rewatch it properly if the decision odds are half decent.
I like that little sprinkle on the decision line just because of the value. He can surprise us, who the hell knows! And I don't see a KO or SUB path for him, only decision, Usman fights safe and is too tough to get finished. But in reality, Usman should win this fight. As other posters have said, he can cage grind and outcardio Burns for 5 no problem. Burns' win vs. Woodley was impressive, but Usman is a much, much tougher opponent.

I just can't get the Colby and Maia fights out of mind. He was getting hit way too easily and I just have this gut feeling he is going to try to strike with Burns. Also, it's harder to grind someone against the cage if they are happy to take bottom position. I'm getting a Cain / Werdum vibe with this fight.

I agree. But Yan is not a giant fearless 145er in Max Holloway who is pushing the pace from the get go. Yan is much more cautious, at least for a round, round and a half, until he gets his reads. And this is his first UFC championship fight, it's very important for him to not waste this opportunity making a stupid mistake. He'll be extra cautious. The smart thing is to outpoint Aldo. And from what I see, Yan looks like a smart fighter.

I guess we disagree on this, Aldo is a very hard fighter to outpoint and I don't think this version of him has the cardio to go a hard 5 rounds. If I was Yan I would be looking to push the pace from the get-go.
 
I just can't get the Colby and Maia fights out of mind. He was getting hit way too easily and I just have this gut feeling he is going to try to strike with Burns. Also, it's harder to grind someone against the cage if they are happy to take bottom position. I'm getting a Cain / Werdum vibe with this fight.
But Werdum has good MT clinch and I didn't see Burns using the plum much, if at all. This was the reason Cain had mighty problems in the clinch with Werdum. And the BJJ threat of course.

Usman will grind him without much issues unless Burns' clinch had suddenly evolved. If much lesser opponents like Nelson were able, then I don't see why Usman can't. And Burns will lose this fight if he fights from the bottom. Maybe if he's fresh he can surprise Usman with some slick sub, but once they get sweaty and the tempo gets to Burns his BJJ won't be as effective. Especially from the bottom. He can use it to get from the bottom, but he can't win the fight there.
I guess we disagree on this, Aldo is a very hard fighter to outpoint and I don't think this version of him has the cardio to go a hard 5 rounds. If I was Yan I would be looking to push the pace from the get-go.
But he never fought that dangerous and good opponent in his career. With the guys that had some above average stand up - Rivera and Dodson - they were able to at least defend themselves and not get finished. Aldo is for sure above average striker and he was finished by big and aggressive strikers @ 145. Not that I don't think Yan can't finish him, but I lean decision all things considered. That's my reasons to think this goes the distance. My Yan fights are little foggy, so I'll have to rewatch to have more solid opinion. :)
 
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Anyone know what the judges scorecards were in Usman vs Covington before the round 5 finish?

I just rewatched and I think Colby won rounds 1, 2, and 4. Usman may have lost if he didn't get the stoppage even with a round 5 win.

Usman was very hittable rounds 1 and 2. Very hittable. He's tough and don't think he'll be stopped, but being punched repeatedly in the face loses you rounds to the judges

If Usman wrestles then I still think he's a solid play. But if he comes to strike first and doesn't adjust? I have my doubts now.
 
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Anyone know what the judges scorecards were in Usman vs Covington before the round 5 finish?

I just rewatched and I think Colby won rounds 1, 2, and 4. Usman may have lost if he didn't get the stoppage even with a round 5 win.

Usman was very hittable rounds 1 and 2. Very hittable. He's tough and don't think he'll be stopped, but being punched repeatedly in the face loses you rounds to the judges

If Usman wrestles then I still think he's a solid play. But if he comes to strike first and doesn't adjust? I have my doubts now.

IIRC, 2 judges had it 2-2
 
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