Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Kamais_Ookin, Jun 12, 2020.
2u bet on Burns +175, 0.2 Burns decision +850. Not really sure what Usman's game plan will be but I feel Burns is stylistically a bad matchup for him.
2.75u bet on Volkan 1.74 because Jiri is just plain bad and has been beating over the hill scrubs in Rizin.
Bets I'm considering at first glance
Volkanovski decision +110, I think the fight will be similar to the first with Holloway having a little more success than the first time. +300 Holloway decision isn't a bad bet either.
Will wait for Rose decision odds as its hard to play her ML at 1.53 knowing how mentally fragile she is, but she will probably win much like the first fight only without the slam this time.
Yans KO +150, I really hope I'm wrong about this one but if Aldo can't get him out of there quickly I don't see him lasting the whole 5 rounds.
Pay them both to sit out. BLM
Oezdemir should be a bigger favorite. Jiri had serious issues with CB Dollaway, Oezdemir's actually been looking pretty great lately even if I feel Rakic deserved the decision over him and only lost it due to weird shin pregnancy optics.
Feel like Usman just kinda eats Burns. Tempo's too much for Burns to deal with, and they've trained together. Which I feel favors Usman as he should be the minute winner and he's probably likely aware of how to deal with Burns' BJJ sufficiently to be able to get the hold-down. I've bet Burns in every fight since Hooker aside from against Kunchenko, and I just don't see how he solves the Usman issue.
Def going with Usman And most likely max volk over. And for value gotta take whatever max by decision is
Usman uses his size and strength to grind a round or 2 against the fence then cruises to decision slowly putting it on him more and more as Gil fades?
PVZ on the PPV over Volkan/Frankie? UFC hate it's paying fans I guess. Better to give good stuff away for free
Ribas will knock out Paige in highlight reel fashion.
VIVA LA BRAZIL!
Im considering this parlay
Just to break it down a little as everyone seems to be on the Soozeman train, I just don't think Usman will even try to take this to the ground, aka Maia / Colby fights and if Maia was able to land his jabs constantly and Colby was able to counter Usman at will, Burns can definitely do some damage against those sloppy straights Usman loves to throw.
Usman's only sensible strategy will be to make this a wall and stall dog fight so as long as Burns is able to stay away from the cage I think he will have a serious chance to beat Usman. I don't see any reason for him to be a +175 underdog but if you are going with Usman, the Usman decision win +100 makes the most sense. (I may hedge some risk with it)
Not the best analysis, but I feel really uncomfortable with this X-factor of the two fighters training together. They have hundreds of hours of experience with each others styles, they're not going to have their usual corners, their camps are gonna be really different from usual... might stay away or just pick the underdog.
Burns seems to be confident, if he would take beatings in sparring from Usman than I doubt he would scream for title shot
Here is Usman's highlights vs Colby. imo Burns will do better in those pocket exchanges based off this. I hope Burns throws early leg kicks to make Usman drop his hands to catch a kick and then gets caught with bombs instead.
Is anyone questioning Colby has better cardio than Burns? I mean imo they arent even in the same tier of cardio.
With that being said we saw what happened when people who have good cardio get beaten up. They fade just like anyone else. What Usman was able to do to Colby was absurd.
Burns will actually be getting hit this fight and will be pressed up on the cage too. I think it's a close fight until it isnt, just like the Colby one. Usman Tko in 4/5th imo
burns' punches are not arm punches tho. i like colby but he's a point fighter. if burns hits usman like colby did, we will most likely have a new champ
considering these bets (but will wait to see weigh ins):
Volkanovski beats Holloway
Volk/Holloway goes to decision
Rose beats Andrade
Rose/Andrade goes to decision
Munhoz beats Frankie
Munhoz/Frankie less than 2.5 rounds
I like all of those except for the munhoz vs frankie plays. The under 2.5 is basically betting on munhoz imho, why bet munhoz straight?
ya you're right.. that makes sense
2.87 for Vanessa Melo is crazy value right?
Karol Rosa never looked that impressive to me
Procopio and Melo are fairly similar on the feet. Slow plotting and unathletic. Rosa should be able to pick her apart standing.
Rosa fights like Matt Riddle with a leg kick
I've seen more head movement from the statue of liberty
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