UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Someone give me a reason not to drop A LOT on Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos at 1.93
 
Jingliang is a much better grappler than Salikhov, who has looked lost as soon as grappling exchanges started in the past

I'm just not seeing how this doesn't look exactly like Zaleski v Curtis Millender
Yeah. Fight comes down to whether or not Zaleski remembers that grappling is legal. IMO clear Salikhov edge standing, even clearer Zaleski edge grappling, but how reliable is that he'll actually grapple?
 
Prior to doing any tape research, a couple fights and their respective odds jump out to me. In particular Grant - Day and Santos - Bogatov. Very juicy odds for Grant and Bogatov imo. I know Santos used to be pretty damn good but he's had a long ass layoff and hes prehistoric for the divison (40). Bogatov seems solid from the little ive seen of him and he has done well in a respectable promotion.

Also I don't see why Day is such a big favorite, he lost every fight with a step up in competition. Grant is no world beater either, but has a lot more experience on the UFC level and has a good win against Marlon Vera under his belt.
 
Davey Grant is WAY faster than I thought he would be and switches stances like Mike Perry switches girlfriends

Obviously very adept on the ground, but like...WAY faster striking than I expected from a 34 year old
 
Prior to doing any tape research, a couple fights and their respective odds jump out to me. In particular Grant - Day and Santos - Bogatov. Very juicy odds for Grant and Bogatov imo. I know Santos used to be pretty damn good but he's had a long ass layoff and hes prehistoric for the divison (40). Bogatov seems solid from the little ive seen of him and he has done well in a respectable promotion.

Also I don't see why Day is such a big favorite, he lost every fight with a step up in competition. Grant is no world beater either, but has a lot more experience on the UFC level and has a good win against Marlon Vera under his belt.
Santos fought this time last year and looked amazing against Stevie Day

Haven't looked into his opponent yet, but Santos's odds would be justified against the average UFC fighter
 
Davey Grant is WAY faster than I thought he would be and switches stances like Mike Perry switches girlfriends

Obviously very adept on the ground, but like...WAY faster striking than I expected from a 34 year old
Update: Davey Grant is not actually very adept on the ground

It's not entirely clear what exactly he's good at
 
Santos fought this time last year and looked amazing against Stevie Day

Haven't looked into his opponent yet, but Santos's odds would be justified against the average UFC fighter

Ah you are right, I missed that fight against Stevie Ray somehow so I was looking at his last fight before that, which took in place in 2016
 
so this will be big cage again right?
 
Aldo/Yan over 2.5 odds are out. I placed on the over. I have a feeling this fight goes to decision. Aldo fights very defensively sound and seemed to start slow vs Moares, I don't see Yan getting the knockdown early on
 
I'm actually considering a play on Volk itd. It's more a gut feeling right now, have to do a bit more looking into it. But I kinda feel like Max's big takeaway from the first fight was his total lack of aggression early on. He likes to start slow and just build and build and let the volume overwhelm opponents. Volk was just too good and kept Max at bay with counters and leg kicks. Max just kept resetting and never got into his normal rhythm. Late in the fight he started having a bit more success with added aggression, but at that point Volk looked to know that he had easily won the first 3 rounds and wasn't going to take any chances at all (and Volk still maybe won the later rounds, they were close). This is all going by memory for what that's worth.

I think Max is going to come out uncharacteristically aggressive because he knows his normal style won't work vs Volk. And I think that's going to present opportunities for Volk to land big shots.
 
I favour Salikhov slightly but I think it's a fight you should avoid, it is probably gonna be very close, both guys are primarily counterstrikers I expect a similar fight like the zaleski vs Kunchenko fight, I prefer the go the distance bet at 1.75.
 
Aldo/Yan over 2.5 odds are out. I placed on the over. I have a feeling this fight goes to decision. Aldo fights very defensively sound and seemed to start slow vs Moares, I don't see Yan getting the knockdown early on

This will be my play as well most likely.
 
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