UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

[rev0lver]

I will play for sure this parlay
Irene Aldana
Abdul Razak
What do you think about Aldana and Abdul ?

I don't see how you'd have any confidence in Aldana. Might have to do some more tape study but that fight just screams pass to me.

Abdul shouldn't even be a favorite here. Despite being hard-hitting and arguably tough, he's sloppy and hittable too. Price has much better wins and much better experience. Very well-rounded too. If you're going to bet Abdul I'd wait for line changes. He should be the dog by the time the fight comes.

 

[Karmello]

I will play for sure this parlay
Irene Aldana
Abdul Razak
What do you think about Aldana and Abdul ?

I'm not sold on Abdul, think Price will give him problems. Yeah Abdul has big KO power, but what else does he got? Price can close the distance, get this to the ground or take his back or something and Price is no slouch on the feet either. I'm on Prices ML at these odds, he's just the more complete fighter and I think he should be the favourite here. Yes Abdul can get the KO, but I would never play him at these - odds

Still have to look into Aldana - Pudilova

 

[piglord]

why

play them both straight if you like them, personally i don't trust either - especially in these match-ups which look close.

price/razak = whoever lands a bomb first wins.

i'd rather parlay the razak/price under and the aldana/pudilova over.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Thanks guys for your opinions!
I think Niko is overrated, Abdul is the better fighter imo.
He would ko Jouban too

I will bet Till for sure

 

[raketmannen]

I will play for sure this parlay
Irene Aldana
Abdul Razak
What do you think about Aldana and Abdul ?

Haven't looked into it yet but I think Pudilovas volume and grit will be an issue for Aldana, she's absorbed over 7 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, she really has been a let down so far and crumbled so easy under Smiths pressure

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Jim Miller the wrestler better be showing up against Alex White or he's gonna get starched again.

 

[rev0lver]

The way I see Abdul is that he's still unproven. He KO'd a low tier TUF guy (who got absolutely mauled by Means before that) and had some trouble doing so. He KO'd one of Conor's friends who only got a fight for being Conor's friend. Other than that he dropped a decision to a mid-tier Russian dude.

He has an excellent judo base but doesn't use it. Grappling didn't seem great against Akhmedov. Only advantage he might have with Price is that he seems to have a pretty solid chin, but I'd never want to depend on that.

 

[zeckdo]

Awesome to have full props 2 weeks before though.

Passes:
Aldana vs Pudilova, both aren't very good. can't trust money on either. over's gonna be -500.

Sanchez vs White, both don't deserve to be in the UFC, Diego is well done White is raw. Craig shouldn't be -250, but I really couldn't trust a dime on Sanchez at this point.

Rivera vs Dodson, Rivera just got KO'd, taking this fight way too soon. Dodson has no power at 135, low output, due for a boring split decision. Dodson +3.5 will be a good play.

Price vs Alhassan, two wild brawlers, Price is pretty hittable, Alhassan should win, can't find value on anything currently, maybe u1.5 when the line comes out.

Plays:

Stamman, hit him at openers at +100, should have waited. Stamman fights very smart, great pressure, great wrestling, don't think Aljo's kicking game will be enough to keep Stamman off him.

Alex White, total Miller fade, -145 seems gracious. White isn't incredible or anything, but he hits pretty hard, good cardio, only hole I see is ground game, Krause beat White on the ground, and Miller has better BJJ than Krause, I just don't think Miller has the stamina and capability to win a grinding fight anymore.

Byrd sub +140, don't have to explain.

FDGTD Esparza/Suarez +145, Suarez sub is most likely, however with the way Esparza rocked Gadelha... not impossible to happen again, considering Gadelha's stand up is better than Suarez.

Andrade will win a decision. -104 is a great price, however -3.5 might be even better, going to wait a little while to lock in my bet.

Shev ITD -110 seems gracious. Can't see Nicco surviving. Expect a beatdown similar to the last poor girl they threw in there with Valentina.

Value seems to be on Camacho at +160. Neal is too unproven. Could first round finishes over semi-decent competition doesn't warrant his current odds. Camacho +3.5 seems like a good play once the line comes out.

Benoit's ground game is pretty weak, Sanchez's is pretty great. Sanchez sub +220 seems like a great price.

 

[t6p]

Awesome to have full props 2 weeks before though.

Passes:
Aldana vs Pudilova, both aren't very good. can't trust money on either. over's gonna be -500.

Sanchez vs White, both don't deserve to be in the UFC, Diego is well done White is raw. Craig shouldn't be -250, but I really couldn't trust a dime on Sanchez at this point.

Rivera vs Dodson, Rivera just got KO'd, taking this fight way too soon. Dodson has no power at 135, low output, due for a boring split decision. Dodson +3.5 will be a good play.

Price vs Alhassan, two wild brawlers, Price is pretty hittable, Alhassan should win, can't find value on anything currently, maybe u1.5 when the line comes out.

Plays:

Stamman, hit him at openers at +100, should have waited. Stamman fights very smart, great pressure, great wrestling, don't think Aljo's kicking game will be enough to keep Stamman off him.

Alex White, total Miller fade, -145 seems gracious. White isn't incredible or anything, but he hits pretty hard, good cardio, only hole I see is ground game, Krause beat White on the ground, and Miller has better BJJ than Krause, I just don't think Miller has the stamina and capability to win a grinding fight anymore.

Byrd sub +140, don't have to explain.

FDGTD Esparza/Suarez +145, Suarez sub is most likely, however with the way Esparza rocked Gadelha... not impossible to happen again, considering Gadelha's stand up is better than Suarez.

Andrade will win a decision. -104 is a great price, however -3.5 might be even better, going to wait a little while to lock in my bet.

Shev ITD -110 seems gracious. Can't see Nicco surviving. Expect a beatdown similar to the last poor girl they threw in there with Valentina.

Value seems to be on Camacho at +160. Neal is too unproven. Could first round finishes over semi-decent competition doesn't warrant his current odds. Camacho +3.5 seems like a good play once the line comes out.

Benoit's ground game is pretty weak, Sanchez's is pretty great. Sanchez sub +220 seems like a great price.

A couple thoughts....

Dodson +3.5 is going to be very juiced (if he doesn’t go favorite by the time the line is released and end up -3.5).

Andrade is likely going to grapple here. She also probably has the best guillotine in WMMA. After KK’s performance vs Claudia I personally wouldn’t touch Andrade decision at that price.

Please don’t bet Shev ITD at -110 when FDGTD is -125.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Here are my picks for this event

Neal-KO2
Benoit-KO1
Aldana-Dec
Miller-Dec
White-KO2
Byrd-Sub2
Riveria-Dec
Stamman-Dec
Suarez-Dec
Price-KO2
Andrade-Dec
Schevenko-Dec
Woodley-Dec

 

[mkess101]

Jim Miller the wrestler better be showing up against Alex White or he's gonna get starched again.

Miller's explosion is gone, I wouldn't trust his ability to get it to the mat at all. He was never a great wrestler (he was adequate but his bjj/sub game was always better than his wrestling) but at this point in his career I don't think he can implement a takedown-heavy gameplan at all. And that's not even mentioning that his gas tank is probably not what it once was either.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Miller's explosion is gone, I wouldn't trust his ability to get it to the mat at all. He was never a great wrestler (he was adequate but his bjj/sub game was always better than his wrestling) but at this point in his career I don't think he can implement a takedown-heavy gameplan at all. And that's not even mentioning that his gas tank is probably not what it once was either.

Miller is pretty done. Remember between rounds of the Trinaldo fight? "I dont think I have it anymore" then Hangman Hooker knees him into another dimension.

Odds aren't wide enough to dictate a play on Miller. -110 white is a no brainer. Didnt get it though and an seriously considering -150 unless theres an argument for Miller i'm not seeing.

 

[piglord]

Miller is pretty done. Remember between rounds of the Trinaldo fight? "I dont think I have it anymore" then Hangman Hooker knees him into another dimension.

Odds aren't wide enough to dictate a play on Miller. -110 white is a no brainer. Didnt get it though and an seriously considering -150 unless theres an argument for Miller i'm not seeing.

agreed i hit white at -137 for 1.5 units and feel good about it.

 

[zeckdo]

A couple thoughts....

Dodson +3.5 is going to be very juiced (if he doesn’t go favorite by the time the line is released and end up -3.5).

Andrade is likely going to grapple here. She also probably has the best guillotine in WMMA. After KK’s performance vs Claudia I personally wouldn’t touch Andrade decision at that price.

Please don’t bet Shev ITD at -110 when FDGTD is -125.

Thanks for the advice. I bet 1.1u to win 1 on Shev ITD (before you told me not to) and .079u on Montano ITD to hedge.

You think Andrade is gonna submit KK? I think her MMA BJJ is better than average, but I think she will bully KK on the feet, don’t think she’ll be the one to iniate the grappling.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

You think Andrade is gonna submit KK? I think her MMA BJJ is better than average, but I think she will bully KK on the feet, don’t think she’ll be the one to iniate the grappling.

Why not? She does it in all of her fights pretty much doesn't she?

 

[rev0lver]

Watching the Trinaldo fight again, Miller still looked pretty game. He's definitely not an easy KO either despite him being in his 10th year at this level. White's only really beaten the bottom of the barrel in the division too.

Biggest criticism I'd give to Miller's recent fights though is that his attack gets kinda repetitive the further the fight goes on. It's like he can have a decent first round, then go on autopilot with his striking no matter how effective he's being.

Personally I'm hoping for some line movement so I can stab Miller closer to +200, or just go for his dec line

 

[Gugabe]

Diego Sanchez shouldn't be this big a dog. Craig White, frankly, isn't UFC-caliber competition and has terrible TDD. Sanchez has been getting stopped, but it's been by serious hitters. That Elbow Brown stopped him with was insane, and even Iaquinta caught him hard to initially rock him. Main concern is White's size, but I've definitely got the feeling Sanchez grinds him out pretty easily.

 

[MT6ix]

agreed i hit white at -137 for 1.5 units and feel good about it.

I just finished watching tape on White/Miller and joining you and hitting White too for 1.5 units but at -147 unfortunately.

Miller is pretty done. Remember between rounds of the Trinaldo fight? "I dont think I have it anymore" then Hangman Hooker knees him into another dimension.

Odds aren't wide enough to dictate a play on Miller. -110 white is a no brainer. Didnt get it though and an seriously considering -150 unless theres an argument for Miller i'm not seeing.

I'm with piglord, I just hit White for 1.5 units but at -147.

I think Miller has some fight left in him and is still tough as nails but near the end of his career.

Alex White is a southpaw and watching the Francisco Trinaldo fight who is also a southpaw for reference, Miller was getting tagged by Trinaldo's straight left from the southpaw stance and I really see White tagging Miller with his lead right hook and straight left (White strikes really long) and if they tie up, White landing elbows from in close. I don't know if he knocks out Miller because Miller is still pretty durable and has a lot of heart but he will definitely be winning the standup exchanges and it will be clear to the judges. The problem is Miller should be fighting at featherweight and not lightweight, guys are just too tall, big and long for him at lightweight. It's problematic because Miller has to get inside against his taller and longer opponents and when he stays at range with them, he gets tagged like in the Pettis and Hooker fight.

Miller will try and strike first to set up takedowns but he doesn't have the stamina anymore to do this over three rounds without tiring out. He looked exhausted in the 3rd round against Trinaldo.

I think around -150 ML is a fair price, I see money coming in on White and closing around the -170 to -180 range closer to fight time.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Need to do some tape watching but liking Sterling here.

Also I think I am backing Price & Aldana at their current prices. The Price line is particularly confusing. His grappling will won him the fight here I would peg him as the favorite

 

[Danis_champ]

Aldana vs. Pudilova

Both are very similar in style. Very even match up and odds reflect that however I think Pudilova is tougher has little bit more volume and is younger (24)which means she probably improves much more in between fights. On the other side Aldana seems to be more athletic and more composed striker. Less sloppy too. Very difficult fight to predict. Split decision written over it. Both going to land similar amount of strikes but I think Aldanas forward pressure and slightly better cardio makes the difference. Pick: Aldana

Need to do some tape watching but liking Sterling here.

Also I think I am backing Price & Aldana at their current prices. The Price line is particularly confusing. His grappling will won him the fight here I would peg him as the favorite

I like Sterling too. Stamman been lucky he got the split decisions. Thought he beat Tom but lost to Caraway. Think Sterling is on another level at this point compared to Caraway