UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

[Stunna77]

Yep good breakdown.

I think Aljo's grappling is somehow starting to be overlooked too given that he's been choosing solely to strike lately.

I think Aljo is going to be the one getting his shots off first and will bloody Cody up. Probably won't stop him, but I think he beats him up and wins pretty clearly.

It most certainly is, his sub line is +950. Had to throw a bit on that given his grappling ability.

 

[MT6ix]

Alex White is a great bet at -150. Had to throw 3u on him. Miller fades after the first round now and Alex has good cardio. I just don’t see Miller finishing white early and the longer this fight goes, the more advantage goes to white.

I took him last night for 1.5u at -147.

Miller looked exhausted in 3rd round against Trinaldo. I think Miller can grind White for 1 round at best but doesn't have the stamina to do it for 3 rounds.

Only way I see Miller winning is catching a submission early but the probability is low.

It's always a good bet, betting on guys near the end of their careers.

 

[Stunna77]

Need to rewatch Miller's last two, but he was game af against pettis and DP. Alex White is not very good. His striking is pretty decent and he has some pop, but unless Miller looks completely done in his last two I would tread lightly.

 

[NorthernLights]

Cody lacks a strong mentor to help him gameplan like Serra & Ray Longo will be doing for Aljo. But most importantly, the way Aljo fights with composure will be a huge difference maker. Since Cody has expressed his dislike for Aljo, I expect him to fight emotionally-charged with reckless abandon (similar to the way Cody G fights Dillashaw)

That's a pretty wild assumption to make just because he doesn't like Aljo.

 

[MT6ix]

Need to rewatch Miller's last two, but he was game af against pettis and DP. Alex White is not very good. His striking is pretty decent and he has some pop, but unless Miller looks completely done in his last two I would tread lightly.

I watched Miller's last few fights last night and he isn't shot like people think. He has heart and is still game but he looks like he is slowing down after round 1.

Also Miller should be fighting at 145, not 155. He is always at a size, height, length disadvantage against guys at 155 and if he can't get inside, he fighting at range with bigger, longer guys than him. White fits into that category.

Let me know what you think after you watch tape. Unless someone drops a bomb on Miller, I see White line getting higher closer to fight time.

 

[MT6ix]

Yep good breakdown.

I think Aljo's grappling is somehow starting to be overlooked too given that he's been choosing solely to strike lately.

I think Aljo is going to be the one getting his shots off first and will bloody Cody up. Probably won't stop him, but I think he beats him up and wins pretty clearly.

I'm on Aljo too.

I think people are overanalyzing him getting knocked out by Marlon.

No shame in getting knocked out by Marlon and that counter switch kick by Marlon knocks out anybody.

 

[mkess101]

I'm on Aljo too.

I think people are overanalyzing him getting knocked out by Marlon.

No shame in getting knocked out by Marlon and that counter switch kick by Marlon knocks out anybody.

If anything his last fight should show how he wasn't affected long-term by that KO by Magic. He implemented a good gameplan and had no issues with Johns. I think he makes it look similarly easy vs Cody.

 

[mkess101]

I watched Miller's last few fights last night and he isn't shot like people think. He has heart and is still game but he looks like he is slowing down after round 1.

Also Miller should be fighting at 145, not 155. He is always at a size, height, length disadvantage against guys at 155 and if he can't get inside, he fighting at range with bigger, longer guys than him. White fits into that category.

Let me know what you think after you watch tape. Unless someone drops a bomb on Miller, I see White line getting higher closer to fight time.

Yep I have 1u on White. Honestly it's pretty much a pure fade of Miller.

 

[Larthus]

That's a pretty wild assumption to make just because he doesn't like Aljo.

Just a feeling, nothing more

 

[Larthus]

How are people viewing Niko Price? I'm in on him, but didn't throw that much down

 

[BatBoyJG]

I’m all for fading Miller but can’t pay -150 for someone like White.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Instead of joing the circle jerk, I'm going to play D'Evils advocate. In the standup Sterling is all about movement, distance management, leg, body and head kicks. He'll use front kicks to help manage distance. As far as punches, he doesnt like them, he'll have a guy trapped against the cage and still throw kicks lol. he has a weak jab, weak cross and a weak hook. Now on to the grappling aspect, his wrestling is more opportunistic than all round technique. He looks for takedowns off kicks, timing or against the cage. He went 0/3 against Assuncao but otherwise took down every opponent at least once. He likes to try trips and bodylocks. Defensively hes unorthodox, his best defense is distance, angling and his JJ technique. Johns took him down twice n rd 1 pretty easy, Barao took him down twice(once in rd3) and Caraway took him down 3 times(went 1/23 against Stamann). As far as subs go, Sterling has 2 sub victories n the UFC though only 1 was impressive, Johny Eduardo and Mizugaki. Stamanns body type will give him a wrestling adv(center of gravity/strength/explosion on top of technique). Stamann should have a distinct wrestling adv both offensively and defensively, so I think Sterlings most success wll come if he can get Stamanns back or smply keep Stamann at distance and kick him the whole fght without Stamann catching them.



In the interview Stamann is talking about how he prepares for his fghts and I like that he starts his camp by puttng himself n all the worse position he could potential get into on fight night. Training with guys that fight Sterlings type of fight better than he does. Best believe he knows Sterling is coming with a kick game and he needs to avoid getting his back taken and if he does get taken he has a plan. Says he didnt rly want Sterling, he wanted Lineker or Dodson and I'd say thats pretty fuckn bold.

Just a feeling, nothing more

In the above nterview Stamann also says hes looking for a knockout, he has been boxng for a while and he may get stubborn, chase sterling around the cage but not land effective punches.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

I wish the price for Andrade sub was better, I really like that as a possible outcome but I’m not wild about +350

 

[rev0lver]

Instead of joing the circle jerk, I'm going to play D'Evils advocate. In the standup Sterling is all about movement, distance management, leg, body and head kicks. He'll use front kicks to help manage distance. As far as punches, he doesnt like them, he'll have a guy trapped against the cage and still throw kicks lol. he has a weak jab, weak cross and a weak hook. Now on to the grappling aspect, his wrestling is more opportunistic than all round technique. He looks for takedowns off kicks, timing or against the cage. He went 0/3 against Assuncao but otherwise took down every opponent at least once. He likes to try trips and bodylocks. Defensively hes unorthodox, his best defense is distance, angling and his JJ technique. Johns took him down twice n rd 1 pretty easy, Barao took him down twice(once in rd3) and Caraway took him down 3 times(went 1/23 against Stamann). As far as subs go, Sterling has 2 sub victories n the UFC though only 1 was impressive, Johny Eduardo and Mizugaki. Stamanns body type will give him a wrestling adv(center of gravity/strength/explosion on top of technique). Stamann should have a distinct wrestling adv both offensively and defensively, so I think Sterlings most success wll come if he can get Stamanns back or smply keep Stamann at distance and kick him the whole fght without Stamann catching them.

I don't think your analysis of the grappling is looking at the whole picture.

Johns' first takedown was a failed trip by Aljo, which Aljo immediately reversed to a dominant position. The second was defended (though still a takedown) to ride out the round. Aljo otherwise dominated the grappling aspect of that match.

Aljo dominated and nearly finished Caraway on the ground rd 1 of their fight. Arguably tired after that, though Caraway had the better of him in wrestling in 2&3

Barao's first "takedown" was a slip from Aljo that he transitioned to a leglock attempt. He had Barao defending sub attempts pretty much the whole match.

Aljo has a very active guard from the bottom and has better BJJ than Stamann. Whether or not you find his sub finishes "impressive" he's a submission artist by nature with a strong wrestling base. If Stamann can land takedowns at all, I see Aljo easily reversing him or putting him in trouble with sub attempts.

 

[mkess101]

I don't think your analysis of the grappling is looking at the whole picture.

Johns' first takedown was a failed trip by Aljo, which Aljo immediately reversed to a dominant position. The second was defended (though still a takedown) to ride out the round. Aljo otherwise dominated the grappling aspect of that match.

Aljo dominated and nearly finished Caraway on the ground rd 1 of their fight. Arguably tired after that, though Caraway had the better of him in wrestling in 2&3

Barao's first "takedown" was a slip from Aljo that he transitioned to a leglock attempt. He had Barao defending sub attempts pretty much the whole match.

Aljo has a very active guard from the bottom and has better BJJ than Stamann. Whether or not you find his sub finishes "impressive" he's a submission artist by nature with a strong wrestling base. If Stamann can land takedowns at all, I see Aljo easily reversing him or putting him in trouble with sub attempts.

To add to this, I would object to the thinking that Cody has better strength and explosion that Aljo.

 

[DevilsPt2]

I don't think your analysis of the grappling is looking at the whole picture.

Johns' first takedown was a failed trip by Aljo, which Aljo immediately reversed to a dominant position. The second was defended (though still a takedown) to ride out the round. Aljo otherwise dominated the grappling aspect of that match.

Aljo dominated and nearly finished Caraway on the ground rd 1 of their fight. Arguably tired after that, though Caraway had the better of him in wrestling in 2&3

Barao's first "takedown" was a slip from Aljo that he transitioned to a leglock attempt. He had Barao defending sub attempts pretty much the whole match.

Aljo has a very active guard from the bottom and has better BJJ than Stamann. Whether or not you find his sub finishes "impressive" he's a submission artist by nature with a strong wrestling base. If Stamann can land takedowns at all, I see Aljo easily reversing him or putting him in trouble with sub attempts.

I wont argue with any of that, you're mostly rght, his BJJ is stellar. I believe I even said in the post you quoted that his tdd is all about distance management, angling and of course his JJ. I was referring to the 3rd in the Barao fight when he got the takedown using Sterlings technique, trapped him against the cage, press a dbl, hook the leg to get around to the back, bodylock, slam. take the back.

 

[Larthus]

Circle Jerk Gods are going to punish our love for Aljo with a complete striking master class by Cody ;_;

 

[Lightbringer]

Stamann / Aljo looks simply like a close fight. I don't know why anyone is hard on either guy. I will pass and be ready for live bets.

 

[matthew55]

I know I'll probably get shit for it, but is anyone else tired of the term "value?" Seems like people started using it a few years ago and now its 'value' this and 'value' that...by the way no offense to those who use it lol

 

[rev0lver]

I know I'll probably get shit for it, but is anyone else tired of the term "value?" Seems like people started using it a few years ago and now its 'value' this and 'value' that...by the way no offense to those who use it lol

Eh it's just a good term to describe things. If a price for a line is lower than its likelihood of hitting, it's literally a value