Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Gugabe, Aug 19, 2018.
Noticed we didn't have one, and there's openers out for the full card's ML lines.
Liking Camacho, Stewart, Dodson and Sterling as dogs but not playing anything just yet.
Im surprised that Sterling is a slight dog, he is a bad match up for Cody.
People overplaying the Duquesnoy win a bit, IMO. I honestly think Caraway deserved the win there, and Sterling's been looking improved lately aside from being unconscious against #1 BW Moraes.
I took Camacho at +170, Dodson at +140 and stamann at @+100
Woodley I was on at -145. I’ll be adding if his line keeps dropping
Parlayed Andrade and Tatiana.
Might end up playing Montana at these odds. She could end up blanketing shevchenko. Would feel better about it if it was 3 rds.
till vs. woodley.
Valentina will win, better donate a dog shelter than lose money on Montano.
Sterling is a steal still at evens IMO.
I was about to make a case for Alhassan for having a killer chin and better grappling abilities than he sometimes looks. Then I saw him as a favorite vs Price... LOL.
Roberto Sanchez is another great play imo as a dog. Camacho should probably be closer to evens too. Some pretty great openers here
Is Craig White worth a fade? Haven't watched much tape, but seems to win most of his fights by sub... while having a ton of sub losses as well. Seems odd. Is his striking good enough to crack Diego? Not saying Diego's normally worth a bet but this seems like such a huge step down from anyone he's fought in a while.
we’re gonna get Woodley at evens, make my words
I was hoping to capitalize on what I thought would be an undervalued Suarez opener but it actually seems about right.
Yeah. I was considering that a little bit. Sanchez is done, but White isn't even a high-tier regional guy. It could be a Lauzon-Grutzemacher rerun, though.
Niko going to sleep early, he might try and wrestle fuck but not really his style nor his strength.
I don't see how Price isn't a better striker than Alhassan. Alhassan's strengths are that he throws hard and has a good chin. But his striking technique isn't very good and he doesn't put his judo base to good use enough. Price is a massive step up from a low tier TUF guy and one of Conor's shitty friends.
Was honestly expecting Alhassan to be a decent sized dog and I'd take him there. There's huge value on Price as a dog.
I think there's a good chance he will be better than evens at some point. till already down from 2.4ish opener. fight still a while out and till's line slowly shortening. his fanbase and the additional UK money should be favorable for ppl wanting to bet woodley.
Yeah. Till was on pace to close as a -130 or so fav against WB before the weight-cut forced him back out. IIRC he opened at 2.5, WB got pushed to dog odds like 48 hours before the fight and then the weight-miss happened and Till got pushed back to 2.3 before closing at 2.1~
UK public money can warp MMA lines pretty easily, IMO. Especially considering T-Wood isn't exactly popular.
His layoff hurts him in this respect too, less people will be willing to bet woodley compared to if he had fought in the last 8 months or so. also he didn't exactly impress too many ppl vs maia in what was one of the best stylistic match-ups i can remember for a champion which may put ppl off also. euro money can absolutely tilt lines a lot. however only till/connor/bisping command really significant amounts I think.
Kinda sucks because I really wanted to bet Till as a solid dog. I've been high on the dude since his debut, and had this assumption that the Wonderboy fight would improve his lines against top comp. Thought he should be at least +200 here.
Does Till really have that big of an influence with the Europeans? I'd have to imagine that the serious betters would start smashing the Woodley line. Maybe closer to fight week? I don't want to have to pass putting stake in a fight like this.
More specifically, mainly in the UK/ingerland. but the UK is the powerhouse of euro betting. hard to say exactly how much money he attracts but its definitely substantial and will impact the lines. he's one of the few fighters to have lines put up on major books and minor ones very soon after he gets a fight announced. a sure sign that bookies know ppl will want to bet his fights giving them more bets to make money of of. they dont do this for most other ufc fighters, but have a history of doing it for big UK names. ala bisping, conor. even dan hardy a little years ago too iirc.
Even obscure British and Aus fighters get juiced a bit, in my experience. If only since UFC prelim markets can be so small that just an extra bit of volume from UK/Aus bettors recognizing a name can cause line movement.
Separate names with a comma.