I don't put much stock in Byrd's last win, but I don't think you should for Stewart either. He made Spiceboy look like a competent striker till he ran into a jab. Arguably dropped the first in a mostly kickboxing battle while displaying some weird cockiness. Byrd's been coming up himself and I'd never even stab a Stewart line unless he's fighting a total bum.
UFC 228 - Till V Woodley
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I don't put much stock in Byrd's last win, but I don't think you should for Stewart either. He made Spiceboy look like a competent striker till he ran into a jab. Arguably dropped the first in a mostly kickboxing battle while displaying some weird cockiness. Byrd's been coming up himself and I'd never even stab a Stewart line unless he's fighting a total bum.
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Not "arguably" imo. Eric Spicely of all people was CLEARLY getting the better of him standing. Coukd have just been one of those weird rounds that ends up meaning little. But Spicely absolutely was outstriking Stewart, which was bizarre to see.
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Spicely just got cut from UFC
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On a rewatch I think the striking was pretty even. Tbh I was just going off a fuzzy recollection at seeing it live at like 4 AM, but even then I think that Byrd shouldn't be priced so highly. Neither is a reliable, good fighter.
Yeah I wouldn't say Stewart was getting destroyed on the feet, but the fact that Spicely was doing so well there is a statement against him. Spicely is purely a ground fighter and his standup's kinda a joke. Striking is supposed to be Stewart's specialty.
What did look good for Stewart in that fight was his TDD, but that's failed him before and I wouldn't want to bank on that just because he defended one good TD attempt. Byrd is a tough guy who can probably outstrike him, and almost definitely has a ground advantage. Wouldn't play Byrd as a favorite against most people but I think he's worth paying for here.
Based on what?
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I took Yair at +430. Ridiculous. I think he should be +200 or so.
BTW.. I dont know how you guys trust Dodson. He might have some advantages against Rivera but he has been to tentative in his last 4 fights at least.
The guy has the power/speed to finish fights but he does not want to take any risks and ends up being in close fights. Maybe he is chinny and we dont know. IDK.. its weird.
I hate betting on guys that I feel dont fight for my money.
Have 1u at Aljo at evens. I dont like the guy but I feel he should be favored here.
Also I think Till beats Woodley but staying away from that one. I want to enjoy the fight.
Not a WMMA follower but Sparza is at +410. Last time I remember her taking Gadelha to a SD which is more than Tatiana Suarez has done (on paper) in his whole career. Can someone explain me why the juice?
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Yes ofc guys I know how good Zabit is too and I am favoring him to win perhaps but the odds are ridiculous. Yair is the highest profile guy in Zabit's career. Who the fuck pays 1.17 for Zabit. Crazy crazy odds. Both are flashy and able to land on each other and who the fuck knows how judges judge this.
His fights? Idk why you'd think otherwise lol. He pretty much Khabib'd Moraes in that fight. And that's exactly what Edgar did to Yair. The only real criticism for it is that he doesn't work subs aggressively enough but rather favors dominance.
Suarez is pretty much a better version of Esparza. She was one of the best female wrestlers in the country, only missing the olympics due to an injury. She has very aggressive grappling. Yeah Esparza will be her biggest name she's fought but she's fought decent competition already. It's not a massive step up and she's dominated her opponents thus far.
Personally I thought the Esparza-Gadelha fight was clear cut for Gadelha. -500 might be a little steep, but I don't see Esparza outgrappling her, and Esparza is not aggressive enough herself to pull something out (unless we're totally wrong about the grappling comparison)
I don't think otherwise. It could be true, but he has to prove his grappling skills against someone decent to get me on train. Pretty much 50/50 fight for me.
He's been training with Edgar and he's been super high on Zabit's skills for a while, saying he's a beast everywhere. It looks that way in his fights so far. Obviously the Edgar thing is coming from training camps and it could be biased. But Edgar is the guy who made Yair's life hell. All signs point to Zabit having a big advantage in that department.
50/50 on the feet is fair but it's a pretty wild prediction to say the grappling is a tossup. Yair has yet to prove his grappling is better than Zabit's opponents by any significant amount and got totally exposed there his last fight.
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Mark Henry has pretty much said that Zabit takes down everyone in their gym, and that inclues some damn good wrestlers. And I would say Sheymon Moraes has a better ground game than Yair, at least from what he showed us a year ago
Go big on Yair if you think it's 50/50, you will get over +500 for his moneyline
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Naah man, Zabit will win.
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Dodson has that "class clown" personality type which gets in the way of him hurting people the more he thinks about it, which tends to be why he doesn't finish people unless it happens quickly after stunning or dropping them and why he admitted to carrying Makovsky to a decision because he would have felt bad knocking him out.
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I’m going to wait a little while longer to pull the trigger on Jimmy based on the way the line has been moving, but I wouldn’t balk at the current -135. That seems undervalued to me. Dodson has a ton of miles on him and (imo) is no longer a top-tier bantamweight. I bet Moraes over Jimmy, but I don’t think the way that fight turned out is indicative of anything major on Jimmy’s part. That kick flatlines any BW and I think Jimmy is still the best BW outside of the power-cluster of TJ, Cody, Moraes, Dom, and Assuncao.
I’d play Dodson as a bigger dog, but at current prices I don’t think he’s on the EV+ side. He lacks urgency (especially as of late) and I almost get the impression that he’s afraid to take any significant chances.
If this is a typical recent Dodson fight (close, tough to score) I definitely favor Jimmy pulling it out.
I’d play Dodson as a bigger dog, but at current prices I don’t think he’s on the EV+ side. He lacks urgency (especially as of late) and I almost get the impression that he’s afraid to take any significant chances.
If this is a typical recent Dodson fight (close, tough to score) I definitely favor Jimmy pulling it out.
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Nicco’s at +700 I had to hit that on general principle. Why exactly are we so sure that she can’t steal 3 rounds? Other than “cuz Shev’s a beast bro!!”
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Eh, I don’t think this the typical “oh, it’s wmma with a -1000 favorite, I’ll take a stab at the dog” scenario. Shev has already shown what she’ll do to a lesser opponent, it’s not like she’s unproven. To be frank, I literally give Nico a 5% or less chance of winning, and I’m not even exaggerating.
I don't think Nicco is a bad fighter at all and she'll probably have a decent future, but yeah she's totally outmatched here. Her being champion is just TUF making a season gimmick, knowing that stronger fighters will switch weight classes afterward. Still throwing $5 at the fluke tho.
