UFC 228 - Till V Woodley
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Aljo at evens was a great line to catch. Even the current -115 is EV+ imo. Aljo generally is a bit disrespected in the betting lines I feel like, iirc I had him +105 vs. Johns in a fight he easily could have been a -150 favorite in.
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You see value on Till as that small of a dog? Woodley at -120 right now is the EV side imo, I’d cap Woodley -200 or close to it in reality
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Personally had him at like a -300 favorite, but Sterling over Johns is my biggest pick of the year thusfar.
piglord
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yeah i'm confident in till.
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Your breakdown link wasn’t working yesterday.
Why do you think till has what it takes to beat woodley when wonderboy couldn’t?
Essentially wonderboy is a better version of till.
Woodley is underrated imo.
Agree that Woodley's underrated but his inactivity in fights will come back to bite him eventually. Till's performance against Wonderboy is as much as a rarity as Woodley getting aggressive and knocking out Lawler. Personally I see Till as a version of Wonderboy with stronger wrestling. As in literally being the physically stronger guy.
On paper he should be the better striker and has strong TDD. Of course you could say the same in Wonderboy's fights with Woodley, I just think it's hard to assume Woodley will keep seeing the same results with his gameplan.
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i also feel till is vastly more aggressive (when he wants to be, obviously he had to change his approach against wb).
here is the article: https://winnersandwhiners.com/news/...ll-vs-tyron-woodley-betting-prediction-63827/
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I think the biggest problem with Woodley aside from his inactivity (maybe he is conserving energy/cardio) is he has a bad habit of letting himself get backed up against the cage. He tries to explode forward at times but having your back against the cage makes you really vulnerable to getting tagged. You can only go either right or left or come forward but you risk walking into Till's straight left and if he goes right, Till can land a left head kick. You will see a big height difference, no way Woodley is 5'9" and Till is taller than 6 foot. He was a few inches taller than Wonderboy who is 6 foot tall. Easier to land head kicks on shorter guys.
I just wish Till was a bigger dog.
I really think Roberto Sanchez is potentially a great dog pick here, but I'm not sure which way the line's gonna go. He has very aggressive grappling, and that's something Benoit's struggled with before. Sanchez did have his chin cracked against Joseph Morales, and Benoit can be pretty scrappy. But Benoit doesn't always make the best decisions in those scrappy exchanges, and if he gets a knockdown like in that fight he could definitely get his leg caught or get taken down.
I can easily see Sanchez grinding out a decision or getting a sub here. Benoit likely has to catch him hard for him to win
I can easily see Sanchez grinding out a decision or getting a sub here. Benoit likely has to catch him hard for him to win
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Am I the only one that is surprised that Niko Price is a dog to Alhassan?
Alhassan isn't good. He struggled with Homasi before landing a bomb, he lost to Akhmdeov, and he's 33 years old and doesn't do much other than wing power shots.
Niko tends to make it harder than it needs to be to win, but he has crazy KO power and probably more ground game than Alhassan. He also has longer reach and is 5 years younger. Seems like pretty much an equal to slightly better version of the same thing.
Alhassan isn't good. He struggled with Homasi before landing a bomb, he lost to Akhmdeov, and he's 33 years old and doesn't do much other than wing power shots.
Niko tends to make it harder than it needs to be to win, but he has crazy KO power and probably more ground game than Alhassan. He also has longer reach and is 5 years younger. Seems like pretty much an equal to slightly better version of the same thing.
When I saw the matchup I got excited to make a degen bet on Alhassan. Then I saw him open as a decent favorite and laughed. Probably going to lay some decent juice on Price if I profit this weekend, even if it shifts a little bit before then.
Only thing that gets me is Price struggling in the Brown fight before the crazy KO. But his experience is leagues above Alhassan's, and Alhassan had struggles with far lesser opponents. Also, Alhassan's chin is probably his most underrated factor. He took some hard shots from both Hamasi and Akhmedov with seemingly no problem.
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I'm probably alone here with this opinion but I think Zabit is overrated. I saw few holes in his game against Bochiank. He wasn't far from losing this fight. I think this fight should be a pickem.
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Fair enough if you think he has flaws but to say he wasnt that far away from losing the fight is a major stretch.
And to say it should be a pickem is a big steetch too considering yairs ground game or lack of it. And we know zabits grappling is legit, while also training with frankie who murked yair. Yair will struggle to make zabit gas, hes not a pressure fighter like bochniak. And i think zabit is clever enough not to get hit by yairs flashy strikes. Oh and thats before we remember that yair just recently got fired for refusing to fight zabit..
Till is stylistically much closer to McGregor than WB. Both likes to pressure their opponents against cage & manage distance on same way.
WB loves to fight from outside & he isn't really good going forward. Till is opposite & has been able to control range against every single opponent. Stylistically it could be terrible match-up for Woodley.
I'll agree on this one. Yair has experience against good competition while Zabit has been beating guys without wikipedia page. Anything can happen, but Yair has proved much more.
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I feel like people are forgetting that Woodley was a D1 wrestler while Till couldn’t wrestle his way out of a paper bag. I know Woodley hasn’t elected to wrestle in a while, but what Woodley does is choose the path of least resistance for exploiting a particular opponent — that’s what he does well. And with Till, that path is wrestling.
I see a lot of people saying it’s a bad matchup for Woodley but if Woodley shows up with an intelligent game plan (which, say what you want about him, he always does) I think it’s a nightmare for Till.
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I think Zabit is overrated too, but he still isn't going to be that easy for most guys to beat and Yair is probably getting grapplefucked.
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I think Wonderboy has what it takes to beat Woodley, he kept Woodleys back to the cage the whole time, except that he was too scared to be the one to lead the dance and commit to a strike. I don't think Till will be as timid
Woodley will probably be the underdog come fight night
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But Woodley has barely used his wrestling in the UFC. The last time he landed more than 1 takedown in a fight was all the way back in 2014 against Condit. And even if he does decide to go that route here, how does his cardio hold up?
What are you basing this on? Wonderboy shooting an unexpected round 5 takedown from which Till immediately got up? The only time I've seen Till struggle in grappling exchanges was after getting injured vs Dalby. Otherwise he's shown great TDD and great offensive wrestling.
