UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

ClipYourDirtyWings said:
I’m going to wait a little while longer to pull the trigger on Jimmy based on the way the line has been moving, but I wouldn’t balk at the current -135. That seems undervalued to me. Dodson has a ton of miles on him and (imo) is no longer a top-tier bantamweight. I bet Moraes over Jimmy, but I don’t think the way that fight turned out is indicative of anything major on Jimmy’s part. That kick flatlines any BW and I think Jimmy is still the best BW outside of the power-cluster of TJ, Cody, Moraes, Dom, and Assuncao.

I’d play Dodson as a bigger dog, but at current prices I don’t think he’s on the EV+ side. He lacks urgency (especially as of late) and I almost get the impression that he’s afraid to take any significant chances.

If this is a typical recent Dodson fight (close, tough to score) I definitely favor Jimmy pulling it out.
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Dodson's "mileage" is about as easy as it gets though outside the 2 DJ fights and maybe parts of the Lineker fight. Even in his losses it's sort of like you said-he just doesn't do enough to win even though he looks like the faster, better striker.

Everything else I agree with. Can't trust Dodson to not flake just enough to lose a close decision. It's his M.O.
 
mkess101 said:
Dodson's "mileage" is about as easy as it gets though outside the 2 DJ fights and maybe parts of the Lineker fight. Even in his losses it's sort of like you said-he just doesn't do enough to win even though he looks like the faster, better striker.

Everything else I agree with. Can't trust Dodson to not flake just enough to lose a close decision. It's his M.O.
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I just see Rivera getting sufficiently in Dodson's face to make him swing back, and also not having the chin to take an errant knockdown or two like most people suffer against Dodson.
 
Gugabe said:
I just see Rivera getting sufficiently in Dodson's face to make him swing back, and also not having the chin to take an errant knockdown or two like most people suffer against Dodson.
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IDK. Rivera has shown he's patient and content to strike on the outside and not force things. The Faber fight iirc I think he mostly did.

Dodson just doesn't stay busy enough. Its maddening when you bet on him.
 
MacPherson911 said:
Nicco’s at +700 I had to hit that on general principle. Why exactly are we so sure that she can’t steal 3 rounds? Other than “cuz Shev’s a beast bro!!”
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wishful thinking bro

unless shev breaks her leg Silva style Montano has no chance.
 
I'm almost relieved that Zabit/Yair is off, such a dumb fight to book for 2 prospects. But I guess UFC only thought spinning shit vs spinning shit, how cool.
Too bad they will probably cut Yair to punish him though
 
Karolina, Carla and Nicco all have great odds.

I can understand Nicco but Karolina is a solid top 5 girl with a win over the champ.

Feels like losing to Claudia means you are shit and it shouldn't.
 
Rivera is chinny as hell and just coming off a bad KO. How good is he? I don't think he would beat Munhoz for example. I think he's overhyped and I'm with Dodson
 
GrantSorenson said:
Rivera is chinny as hell and just coming off a bad KO. How good is he? I don't think he would beat Munhoz for example. I think he's overhyped and I'm with Dodson
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I think Rivera's decent, but Dodson's a bad matchup if he can rediscover his power. Good TDD + Good power should give him a fair advantage in this one. Only way I see Rivera winning this is a volume-based split decision.
 
Sauna said:
Karolina, Carla and Nicco all have great odds.

I can understand Nicco but Karolina is a solid top 5 girl with a win over the champ.

Feels like losing to Claudia means you are shit and it shouldn't.
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I just think Andrade is a really bad matchup for KK and the odds are based on that. Andrade is going to come forward hard and even if she might be losing the standup, she will close the distance and take KK down and secure the rounds that way. Don't think KK has anything against the strength and TD's of Andrade and when it hits the ground she's in a lot of trouble and I don't see her getting up easy. To be honest Andrade could also win standing if this plays out in the pocket. For KK to win she needs to stay at distance and try to make this a kickboxing match and use her reach to just stay out of Andrades way and keep this standing and at distance. I just don't see that happening with the relentless pressure of Andrade, she'll close the distance and fuck her up up close against the cage and otherwise pick her up and slam her down at ease.

Next to Rose KK is one of my favourite female fighters and as much as I would like to see her win, I would be really surprised if she beats Andrade.
 
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Karmello said:
I just think Andrade is a really bad matchup for KK and the odds are based on that. Andrade is going to come forward hard and even if she might be losing the standup, she will close the distance and take KK down and secure the rounds that way. Don't think KK has anything against the strength and TD's of Andrade and when it hits the ground she's in a lot of trouble and I don't see her getting up easy. To be honest Andrade could also win standing if this plays out in the pocket. For KK to win she needs to stay at distance and try to make this a kickboxing match and use her reach to just stay out of Andrades way and keep this standing and at distance. I just don't see that happening with the relentless pressure of Andrade, she'll close the distance and fuck her up up close against the cage and otherwise pick her up and slam her down at ease.

Next to Rose KK is one of my favourite female fighters and as much as I would like to see her win, I would be really surprised if she beats Andrade.
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Yep. KK has almost no chance of stopping the TD. I can't even see Andrade bothering with the standup very long honestly.
 
I really like Andrade here, but at th we odds I’ll take a small stab at KK.

I really have no feel for the ME, maybe the over 3.5 or so is the best play?

I have ZERO confidence in Dodson, when was the last time he looked good? Vs Lineker 2016? I’ll likely play Rivera DEC if the odds are good enough.
 
Shoulder said:
I really like Andrade here, but at th we odds I’ll take a small stab at KK.

I really have no feel for the ME, maybe the over 3.5 or so is the best play?

I have ZERO confidence in Dodson, when was the last time he looked good? Vs Lineker 2016? I’ll likely play Rivera DEC if the odds are good enough.
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Andrade is gonna ragdoll KK, but odds reflect that yeah. ME at first glance is gonna be tough to cap. I guess I should have played Till when he had a + next to him, now at -105...meh. I think for a ppv this is gonna be my smallest action in a LONG time. The only play I have right now is Camacho at +155.

This card has 3 WMMA fights on the main card where the favorites are too juiced to play, but will almost surely steamroll their opponents. Shit, I might pass on watching this card live completely. The ME is compelling and there's a few other solid fights, but overall...ugh.
 
Sauna said:
Karolina, Carla and Nicco all have great odds.

I can understand Nicco but Karolina is a solid top 5 girl with a win over the champ.

Feels like losing to Claudia means you are shit and it shouldn't.
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Only Karolina has a chance to win, the rest will lose
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Only Karolina has a chance to win, the rest will lose
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KK is gonna get ragdolled by Andrade. Doesn't mean anyone should bet Andrade at these crazy odds though. Hard pass on all the main card WMMA fights. Crazy juice, but justified. No point betting any of the 3 fights at all.
 
I will play for sure this parlay
Irene Aldana
Abdul Razak
What do you think about Aldana and Abdul ?
 
man this isn't a bad stylistic match-up for diego sanchez at all. am i crazy to take a stab at +200?
 
piglord said:
man this isn't a bad stylistic match-up for diego sanchez at all. am i crazy to take a stab at +200?
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Not at all. Craig White isn't a UFC-level fighter and barely cut it on the regional scene before finding a small winstreak. He's mostly a grappler, and not an elite one at that, which Diego can absolutely still handle
 
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