UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

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SBJJ said:
Had to hit TJ for 500 in case this is a blip.
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He’s definitely going to get bet back down.

I would definitely hit it now if I was planning on backing him
 
Im starting to like TJ. I wont bet him because I dont bet against undefeated fighters but he might have a shot
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Is there something I'm missing with Dillashaw?

--More well rounded
--More proven to beat a wider range of fighters
--Elite work ethic
--Smarter than Cody
--2" reach than Cody the T-Rex
--Not dealing with a back injury
--Didn't get drunk and wrestle with an injured back

I see why Cody is a threat. He has a big right hand and he's super quick and it's hard to escape it. And he has good wrestling so TJ prob can't give him the Lineker treatment.

But Cody is really dependent on boxing for a guy with short arms not a ton of kicking or grappling. And he's not smart and he's hanging his entire resume on his Cruz win, which was Cruz's 3rd fight in a year with plantar fascitis.

And it sounds like Dillashaw won sparring more often back at Team Alpha Male...Cody says he knocked him out once and TJ says he won around 70% of the time. I think if Cody was winning > 50% he wouldn't be bragging about one KO. And yes Cody was younger then, but TJ might be the harder worker-- he is an insane gymrat and has made huge leaps under Ludwig. And being smarter, TJ is more likely to draw a quality gameplan from that past experience together.

Sure Cody might catch him and end the fight, but I'm not certain that he is the better fighter. He has faced no quality competition outside of possibly damaged Cruz, and Dillashaw has run through Barao x2, Lineker, Soto, Assuncao...and his loss to Cruz wasn't bad by any stretch but it was his worst fight.

Factor in the back injury and I could see Cody showing up as a shell of the guy who fought against Cruz and TJ running through him. And worst case this is a close fight. I don't see Cody dominating too often.
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That Huffington artice you posted was a good read, thanks for that.

I've been on Cody since this fight was announced but the dedication factor is of interest to me here....

Let me preface this blip by saying all of the following could easily mean zero, but seeing Dillashaw transform his training environment yet again (assuming thats a positive like it has been) is intriguing because while DIllashaw has been able to stay injury-free and upgrade his sparring partners, Cody has had the back injury from his youth flare up again as we all know, and he's been off getting married, announcing his wife is pregnant, and traveling quite a bit if you follow him.

TJ looks like Rocky grinding in the mountains while Cody has spent a lot of time on stuff outside of training and dealing with one of the most frustrating injuries you can have. I have a hard time believing his back is actualy 100% -- this is an injury that originally happened to him in junior high/high school and gave him enough trouble recently to pull out of 213. That isn't something that goes away in a few months because you took a month off to fly to Germany for some stem cell shit. In fact, long flights probably pissed it off even more (any fellow back injury guys out there probably know what I mean).

Lastly on the injury front, a back injury is one of those things that can feel manageable in training, but suddenly at competition intensity everything goes to shit. It's a big question mark.

Also, there's a lot of talk about how Alpha Male knows TJ best since they helped build him, but the reverse is also true: TJ knows Cody very well and his team will too via study. TJ is a master of tailoring his gameplan to his opponent and seems to get better mentally with each fight as well.

I still favor Cody a bit due to the boxing advantage and wrestling canceling each other out on paper, but TJ does grab my attention here the more I think about it. It's an exploitable line if you have a strong lean one way or another.
 
Really surprised how much is coming in on Cody.

TJ by decision +275 is really nice here
 
Well it looks like Fury has bet JJ and Garbrandt.

Fury's overall profit was higher in April than it is now, so if you've paid for his service for the last six months you have made nothing.

He gets too much respect from sportsbooks, as soon as he makes a bet the odds change significantly, who knows how much money is actually getting bet and how many people are tailing his bets, IDK who would want to pay for a handicapping service that touts -500's regularly
 
On mainly dogs two weeks in a row. The dogs didn't bark as much as I'd have liked last week, but every fav that I played hit. I'm hoping to find some reliable favs in the undercard.
 
This Dillashaw line now at +155 is one of my favorite lines this year, I think.

He is the favorite in my opinion. He has more tools and more ways to win. Cody is fairly predictable. Counter-wrestler who throws his hands, good counter-puncher.

Tj has more weapons on the feet, way better kicks, better movement. He has better wrestling and some crazy GnP.

I'm sure this line has been "blessed" and that pushed it this high, and I'm glad.

I maintain that the Cruz that Cody beat was NOT the Cruz from years past. His movement was nowhere near what it has been. Bum foot, bum knee, whatever the reason.. that made Cody look better than he is. And he still took two rounds cause Cody stares a lot waiting to counter.
 
Masvidal wonderboy DEC -180. Like it.

O2.5 is up to -235.
 
No way I would play JJ now, -400 was the limit and Fury came in and ruined that. I never get to play any juiced favs cause he keeps destroying the odds.
 
GSP vs Bisping: There are some crazy odds on a draw , or Bisping by submission ...

What do you guys think are the chances of either of those outcomes?
 
EzFlyer said:
This Dillashaw line now at +155 is one of my favorite lines this year, I think.

He is the favorite in my opinion. He has more tools and more ways to win. Cody is fairly predictable. Counter-wrestler who throws his hands, good counter-puncher.

Tj has more weapons on the feet, way better kicks, better movement. He has better wrestling and some crazy GnP.

I'm sure this line has been "blessed" and that pushed it this high, and I'm glad.

I maintain that the Cruz that Cody beat was NOT the Cruz from years past. His movement was nowhere near what it has been. Bum foot, bum knee, whatever the reason.. that made Cody look better than he is. And he still took two rounds cause Cody stares a lot waiting to counter.
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I think they both beat Cruz, tbh. Dillashaw had Cruz figured out in the 4th/5th and would cruise to a 49-46 sort of a decision in a rematch IMO. Cruz isn't anywhere near as worthwhile as a win as he used to be. I think Rivera will beat him via a fairly clear decision as the MMA metagame has left Dom behind.

Part of why I'm on Dillashaw is the diversity of ways I could see him winning compared to Cody. I don't see Cody beating Dillashaw except by KO in one of the first 3 rounds, whilst I'd be unsurprised by just about any outcome in Dillashaw's favor.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Main card lines are completely wrong all the time. It is not a fact that Rose/JJ is accurately priced, not by a longshot.
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You've only been watching the sport for two months. Maybe you're not the right person to opine.
 
I go to all the schools to teach about perseverance, after the Maia fight, he wanted to fight me, but my knee was injured, the knee took a while to heal up, Weidman came out to train, (but he had hand surgery), Karl Reed my wrestling coach, big 205er, Im at 185, feeling strong, Masvidal will have his hands full, ready for 15 minute war

 
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