UFC 217 - Bisping vs GSP - NYC

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Looking for insight on choosing tickets to UFC 217

They just sent me an email saying you can get 25% off 'select seats' with code: MSGFIGHT

Might not apply to the seats you want but worth trying if you haven't booked.
 
Yeah true Colby was a great bet


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As awful as Hendricks has been looking lately, there has to be some concern that even a totally gassed Bamgbose was able to take Borra down, no?

No, not really, none whatsoever. I mean, like I said Hendricks is very small for a 185 pound fighter while Bamgbose is not only big, but he’s fast, awkward explosive and is able to generate a lot of velocity in his movements. All of this combined to help him land strikes on Borra as well as get a couple take downs. That said, if you remember Borra jumped right back up and was never controlled on the mat at all. That said, Johny has never been an exceptional top fighter where he could just take you down and control you for large portions of a fight. Just remember how many times that he was able to take Carlos Condit down and Carlos popped right back up.

What’s more, consider the fact that Johny struggled mightily to take Kos or Pierce down and was actually in a 50/50 clinch battle with them for a large swaths of the fight. Meanwhile, Rick Story actually was able to neutralize him to the point of picking up a victory. Having said that, Johny is an excellent wrestler — but again, he is a ghost of his former self. Like I said, he has lost 4 of 5 fights, and 6 of his last 9 bouts. Even against Hector he barely eked out a victory. And that was a post USADA Hector, who was back up at middleweight and is a husk of his former self as well.

If you take in consideration how much Johny struggled against the aforementioned 170 pound wrestle/boxers in Josh, Pierce and Story and then even more so against the 185 pound Boetsch, it doesn’t give me too much hope that he’s going to all the sudden be able to keep a monster like Borra down. Not long enough to win two of three rounds needed to get his hand raised in victory.

Instead, I believe Borra is going to stifle any TDs Johny throws at him while kicking the shit out of his midsection and land bombs over the top. I only expect Borra to look better than last. Incidentally, BoHo reminds me of a prime Hector Lombard but with a more nuanced striking skill set. Meanwhile, Johnny is a fucking husk of the 170 pounds force he once was.

As such, I totally expect the former Oklahoma State Cowboy to get torpedoed in the first by this Brazilian battleship
 
That Huffington artice you posted was a good read, thanks for that.

I've been on Cody since this fight was announced but the dedication factor is of interest to me here....

Let me preface this blip by saying all of the following could easily mean zero, but seeing Dillashaw transform his training environment yet again (assuming thats a positive like it has been) is intriguing because while DIllashaw has been able to stay injury-free and upgrade his sparring partners, Cody has had the back injury from his youth flare up again as we all know, and he's been off getting married, announcing his wife is pregnant, and traveling quite a bit if you follow him.

TJ looks like Rocky grinding in the mountains while Cody has spent a lot of time on stuff outside of training and dealing with one of the most frustrating injuries you can have. I have a hard time believing his back is actualy 100% -- this is an injury that originally happened to him in junior high/high school and gave him enough trouble recently to pull out of 213. That isn't something that goes away in a few months because you took a month off to fly to Germany for some stem cell shit. In fact, long flights probably pissed it off even more (any fellow back injury guys out there probably know what I mean).

Lastly on the injury front, a back injury is one of those things that can feel manageable in training, but suddenly at competition intensity everything goes to shit. It's a big question mark.

Also, there's a lot of talk about how Alpha Male knows TJ best since they helped build him, but the reverse is also true: TJ knows Cody very well and his team will too via study. TJ is a master of tailoring his gameplan to his opponent and seems to get better mentally with each fight as well.

I still favor Cody a bit due to the boxing advantage and wrestling canceling each other out on paper, but TJ does grab my attention here the more I think about it. It's an exploitable line if you have a strong lean one way or another.

That was I who posted it.

I met TJ and his group a few months back at a Chipolte in OC. Friendly group and talked for awhile. I guess his training is just off the charts.

The beating and PACE he put on Lineker was something to behold. +150 is off IMO
 
No, not really, none whatsoever. I mean, like I said Hendricks is very small for a 185 pound fighter while Bamgbose is not only big, but he’s fast, awkward explosive and is able to generate a lot of velocity in his movements. All of this combined to help him land strikes on Borra as well as get a couple take downs. That said, if you remember Borra jumped right back up and was never controlled on the mat at all. That said, Johny has never been an exceptional top fighter where he could just take you down and control you for large portions of a fight. Just remember how many times that he was able to take Carlos Condit down and Carlos popped right back up.

What’s more, consider the fact that Johny struggled mightily to take Kos or Pierce down and was actually in a 50/50 clinch battle with them for a large swaths of the fight. Meanwhile, Rick Story actually was able to neutralize him to the point of picking up a victory. Having said that, Johny is an excellent wrestler — but again, he is a ghost of his former self. Like I said, he has lost 4 of 5 fights, and 6 of his last 9 bouts. Even against Hector he barely eked out a victory. And that was a post USADA Hector, who was back up at middleweight and is a husk of his former self as well.

If you take in consideration how much Johny struggled against the aforementioned 170 pound wrestle/boxers in Josh, Pierce and Story and then even more so against the 185 pound Boetsch, it doesn’t give me too much hope that he’s going to all the sudden be able to keep a monster like Borra down. Not long enough to win two of three rounds needed to get his hand raised in victory.

Instead, I believe Borra is going to stifle any TDs Johny throws at him while kicking the shit out of his midsection and land bombs over the top. I only expect Borra to look better than last. Incidentally, BoHo reminds me of a prime Hector Lombard but with a more nuanced striking skill set. Meanwhile, Johnny is a fucking husk of the 170 pounds force he once was.

As such, I totally expect the former Oklahoma State Cowboy to get torpedoed in the first by this Brazilian battleship

BangBros might have #Eliteworst wrestling

Like really bad
 
My hot take for this card is Bisping is bad and washed up and GSP will win

3 years ago GSP would have been like -800 vs Bisping, and Bisping hasnt improved with age so much as he has been massively lucky. Why so much confidence he has surpassed the GOAT? He is 2 years older and looked awful vs Hendo.

Also this is going to decision a ton, and the crowd will favor GSP and the judges may as well since UFC can make another big $$$ fight with GSP win. Cant do shit with Bisping W
 
GSP/Bisping GTD is 1.72 and it is the best play for this fight, i think. Already puted 2u on O4.5 @1.80 and thinking to add some more. I cant see arguments against this. GSP doesn`t have the power to KO Bisping and he has a great chin by himself. Maybe catching Bisping with some GnP shot, but it doesnt look very possible to me.
Too many question marks for GSP and Bisping did nothing impressive in his last fights. Maybe will put a unit on GSP because of the good old times...
 
They just sent me an email saying you can get 25% off 'select seats' with code: MSGFIGHT

Might not apply to the seats you want but worth trying if you haven't booked.

I’m surprised 217 sales are bombing so hard. I guess the first time in ny factor wore off and people are balking at the prices

I had to pay $1500 a pop last year, but mystic mac was on the card and all of Ireland flew to ny to see him
 
After research I have reconsidered my position on Masvidal vs Thompson

Jorge Masvidal is my guy and I've bet him in his last few fights, it was hard to watch him get backpacked by Maia and lose another split. Everytime Masvidal loses it's a close fight which is why his last 4 losses are all splits. He's a tough fight for anyone in the division. I honestly thought Masvidal would beat Maia and go on to beat Woodley.

Masvidal is only 32 and he's in his prime right now, he has become a more aggressive fighter and he has polished his game up over a long career with a lot of experience. The Cerrone fight was his best performance yet, Masvidal broke Cerrone before Cerrone was broke.

Thompson who is 34 had his shot, he had two, he failed, he fought scared. Thompson has a solid resume but he fought a lot of guys when they weren't at there best, all his big wins are tainted, he just fought a lot of guys at the right time. Whittaker at 170, declining Hendricks, Broken McDonald, none of those guys were even close to their best when they fought Thompson.

Masvidal will be the best striker Thompson has fought in the UFC, no doubt about it. I think Masvidal is definitely capable of out striking Thompson. Masvidal's boxing is some of the best in MMA and it's going to give Thompson problems. Thompson has his hands down and chin up, Masvidal is going to touch him.

Hearing Masvidal's interviews builds my confidence in him. I favour Masvidal to beat almost every welterweight in the UFC but I do think Thompson is one of the tougher fights stylistically, I do favour Masvidal to win though. +145 hard to pass up, Masvidal is being underestimated. Masvidal wanted this fight.

Masvidal + Covington = Easy Money Campaign, I gotta stay loyal to that, ride that money train
 
My hot take for this card is Bisping is bad and washed up and GSP will win

3 years ago GSP would have been like -800 vs Bisping, and Bisping hasnt improved with age so much as he has been massively lucky. Why so much confidence he has surpassed the GOAT? He is 2 years older and looked awful vs Hendo.

Also this is going to decision a ton, and the crowd will favor GSP and the judges may as well since UFC can make another big $$$ fight with GSP win. Cant do shit with Bisping W

36 years old hasn’t fought in 4 years moving up in weight to fight for the title?

These fairy tale stories usually don’t work out well

If gsp can’t take down bisping, he will get walked down and beaten up badly.

He took beatings in his last few fights but managed to get the takedowns and ended up getting some decisions he probably wouldn’t get now with the judging criteria changes

If you’re betting on gsp you’re just not #elite

He’s got Major red flags. He’s not even an underdog. Out of all the fighters on the card why would you pick gsp? It’s like betting machida in the last event.
 
Fellow Canadians and anyone with access to Ohmbet. They have a promotion offering GSP at +400. Small limits but you can continue to max it over the week. Also if you weren't aware they offer LB for all fights including FP prelims, even had DWCS livebet for the first episode.
 
He’s got Major red flags. He’s not even an underdog. Out of all the fighters on the card why would you pick gsp? It’s like betting machida in the last event.

I was heavy on Brunson and don't think this is comparable at all.

Machida is 39, had PED suspensions, and was savagely finished 2 fights in a row. GSP still went out on a winning streak before he was truly washed up, even after this time off he is only 36. And he's had plenty of time to add bulk to work at 185.

No doubt GSP is a risk, but he isn't an obvious shell like Machida. He seems like the type of guy who can intelligently train himself back to a pretty good fighter. I wouldn't give him a chance vs Woodley, Whittaker, Rockhold, etc...but Bisping isn't good at all, which is why he took the fight.

I don't think this is a premium bet. It's my weakest lean on main card. Of course there are risks, but I have a lot of faith in Bisping sucking and I don't believe GSP should be expected to be total ass.
 
Bisping is a gift at evens! I capped him at -250. I don’t see any path to victory for GSP. Moving up to middle weight, 4 year layoff, fighting a huge opponent in Bisping, etc. Bet the house on Bisping, these opportunities don’t come along often.

I also like Masvidal and Garbrant to win, not putting any $ on those though.
 

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Gotta agree with you guys on Dillashaw, +150 is off, I think the Cruz looked bad in the Garbrandt fight and maybe Garbrandt is a little overrated right now. Garbrandt's back injury also raises questions.

Dillashaw has the overall better game, he has a more diverse skillset and I don't think he's outmatched anywhere. This will most likely be a very competitive fight but I do give a very slight lean to Dillashaw.
 
I was heavy on Brunson and don't think this is comparable at all.

Machida is 39, had PED suspensions, and was savagely finished 2 fights in a row. GSP still went out on a winning streak before he was truly washed up, even after this time off he is only 36. And he's had plenty of time to add bulk to work at 185.

No doubt GSP is a risk, but he isn't an obvious shell like Machida. He seems like the type of guy who can intelligently train himself back to a pretty good fighter. I wouldn't give him a chance vs Woodley, Whittaker, Rockhold, etc...but Bisping isn't good at all, which is why he took the fight.

I don't think this is a premium bet. It's my weakest lean on main card. Of course there are risks, but I have a lot of faith in Bisping sucking and I don't believe GSP should be expected to be total ass.

GSP was already on his way out when he retired. Tons of injuries and personal issues. Not to mention blaming time loss from CTE on aliens.

Bisping gonna get an easy W over another GOAT. Trust me on this. If you don't have 5 units on Bisping you can't be taken seriously as a bettor IMO.
 
GSP was already on his way out when he retired. Tons of injuries and personal issues. Not to mention blaming time loss from CTE on aliens.

Bisping gonna get an easy W over another GOAT. Trust me on this. If you don't have 5 units on Bisping you can't be taken seriously as a bettor IMO.

Another easy W? Hendo was 10 years older than GSP is now and wasn't as GOAT and Bisping deserved to lose.

Silva kicked his ass but wasn't playing to win rounds and lost a borderline decision. Leites could have gone either way.

Bisping's career is defining by one punch vs Rockhold. He can't beat any decent fighter comfortably in decision. Lost to 35 y/o Tim Kennedy and 34 y/o Sonnen He can be outwrestled by non-elite fighters.

He is extremely lucky that he landed on Rockhold and his last 3 close decisions were all in England or Scotland. Now he's fighting in NYC and the judges won't favor him in a close fight this time.

I understand the limited confidence in GSP, but everybody who is confident in 38 year old Bisping is crazy.
 
Another easy W? Hendo was 10 years older than GSP is now and wasn't as GOAT and Bisping deserved to lose.

Silva kicked his ass but wasn't playing to win rounds and lost a borderline decision. Leites could have gone either way.

Bisping's career is defining by one punch vs Rockhold. He can't beat any decent fighter comfortably in decision. Lost to 35 y/o Tim Kennedy and 34 y/o Sonnen He can be outwrestled by non-elite fighters.

He is extremely lucky that he landed on Rockhold and his last 3 close decisions were all in England or Scotland. Now he's fighting in NYC and the judges won't favor him in a close fight this time.

I understand the limited confidence in GSP, but everybody who is confident in 38 year old Bisping is crazy.
Hendo has one punch KO power. GSP doesn't.

Silva has arguably the best striking ever and Bisping beat his ass besides the cheap shot knee.

Kennedy and Chael were on anabolic steroids. Post USADA they get whooped by Bisping, as do every one of the known cheaters who beat Bisping pre USADA.

I understand you've only watched MMA for a couple months but you can't just use records in your analysis without context.

Bisping has proven TDD and will be a very tough fight for GSP with the size advantage he'll have as well as his endless cardio and volume.

At the end of the day, there's countless red flags surrounding GSP and when has anyone ever looked good off such a long layoff?

Bisping is easy money at these odds, no doubt about it.
 
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