UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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mkess101 said:
If you are big on Maia the Mas KO prop seems like the perfect hedge (if you ever do hedge). With odds where they are, I actually think a big Maia ML bet paired with Mas KO as a hedge is a great play.
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Maia ML hedged with Masvidal KO bit risky imo

With the new rules scoring I like the Draw for a small bet, I can see Maia winning 2 rounds and lose the third by 10-8 or Masvidal could win by DEC imo with this fight being as the McDonald-Maia fight. Masvidal looks better than ever and clearly more dangerous than years ago but has had many fighters against the ropes and sometimes has not been able to finish them.
 
Polarize said:
Maia ML hedged with Masvidal KO bit risky imo

With the new rules scoring I like the Draw for a small bet, I can see Maia wining 2 rounds and lose the third by 10-8 or Masvidal could win by DEC imo with this fight being as the McDonald-Maia fight. Masvidal looks better than ever and clearly more dangerous than years ago but has had many fighters against the ropes and sometimes has not been able to finish them.
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He's become way more aggressive now, I think his confidence probably the main reason. When he lands, he seems to be stalking more, throwing combos, looking for the kill. Rory had a great jab but was never the combination power-puncher that Mas is.

Obviously there's risk in everything, but I still like the KO prop as a hedge for those who bet Maia. That said, your point about the new scoring is valid for sure. I just don't think we'd see Mas hurt Maia badly enough to earn a 10-8 without finishing. He's not gonna follow Maia to the mat to try to finish if he hurts him, ending up tied up in Maia's guard. He'll immediately make Maia stand, where the fight is as much a mismatch in Mas' favor as it is in Maia's when it's on the ground.
 
piglord said:
i'm normally a parlay guy but i like a lot of dogs on this card. wondering how i should allocate my money because i hardly ever use straight bets as my main plays.

i'm doing some combination of pettis, andrade, masvidal, yair.
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If you're betting mostly dogs making straight bets is generally what most of us think is the way to go. If you really like parlays, I'd do this:

Take whatever amount you plan to bet and split it up. Maybe 60% toward straight bets and 40% toward parlays? Or 50/50 if you want to be more aggressive? Whatever. Play your dogs straight, then RR them with the amount you allotted for parlays. With the RR you get the benefit of the bigger payout if you are hitting a lot of them but also make $ if you aren't perfect. (I like 4 and 5 leg RR parlays with dogs or props with +odds. I play them very small, mostly for fun, but if you hit 3 or 4 you make a lot of $).
 
One more prop I like on this card:

Yair dec +345

Frankie has only lost to Aldo (x2) over the last however many years. But it looked pretty evident vs Stephens that he might be slowing down, at least a little. Yair is a good young fighter, very athletic and dynamic, and uses distance well. I think he has at least a decent chance of outworking Edgar standing, landing some good shots (Frankie can be hit) and walking away with the decision. I don't think we see a finish here either way. Edgar is still tough and Yair seems to have a solid chin. I think we'll see Frankie's typical standup, lots of bobbing and weaving and lateral movement. While Yair will do what he does and mix in a lot of flashy striking with his normal kickboxing. I think his use of distance can keep him off the mat for the most part. Frankie may get a TD or two if he tries but I think Yair is good enough to get back to his feet.

Gun to my head you tell me this is for sure hitting the cards I suppose I still pick Frankie. Like I said he's only lost to Aldo in like a 5 year span. But his dec prop at +115 doesn't justify a play, while Yair at +345 absolutely does imo.
 
mkess101 said:
He's become way more aggressive now, I think his confidence probably the main reason. When he lands, he seems to be stalking more, throwing combos, looking for the kill. Rory had a great jab but was never the combination power-puncher that Mas is.

Obviously there's risk in everything, but I still like the KO prop as a hedge for those who bet Maia. That said, your point about the new scoring is valid for sure. I just don't think we'd see Mas hurt Maia badly enough to earn a 10-8 without finishing. He's not gonna follow Maia to the mat to try to finish if he hurts him, ending up tied up in Maia's guard. He'll immediately make Maia stand, where the fight is as much a mismatch in Mas' favor as it is in Maia's when it's on the ground.
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I agree. Masvidal is a bigger threat to finish Maia than McDonald was and Maia is older, so is Masvidal wins I favour the KO but I don't know, Maia in my eyes is tough dude to finish even if he is outclassed on the feet and he should be bigger fight day
 
I love Frankie but I will probably look to play yair nsc
 
Andrade is good but i think she's a bit of a poor man's gadhela.

I like jj by decision
 
edole said:
Andrade is good but i think she's a bit of a poor man's gadhela.

I like jj by decision
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I think Claudia has better TD's but a worse gas tank. And Andrade has crisper boxing and hits harder.
 
mkess101 said:
If you're betting mostly dogs making straight bets is generally what most of us think is the way to go. If you really like parlays, I'd do this:

Take whatever amount you plan to bet and split it up. Maybe 60% toward straight bets and 40% toward parlays? Or 50/50 if you want to be more aggressive? Whatever. Play your dogs straight, then RR them with the amount you allotted for parlays. With the RR you get the benefit of the bigger payout if you are hitting a lot of them but also make $ if you aren't perfect. (I like 4 and 5 leg RR parlays with dogs or props with +odds. I play them very small, mostly for fun, but if you hit 3 or 4 you make a lot of $).
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good tips. i think i might do £250 on the round robin. i think there's a good chance 3 or 4 hit but i'll feel like a real idiot if 2 hit and i make a loss.

then £100 or so on each individual play.
 
spent all night watching fights, now about to spend all day watching tape for the next event.

i used to have a social life involving actual females, now i am a creature of the internet, glued to my laptop until the apocalypse.
 
mkess101 said:
There's some KO props that I really like.

Andrade KO +430
JDS KO +337
Masvidal KO +275
Poirier KO +405 (this probably my favorite)

I agree on Andrade, although JJ hasn't taken damage in all those fights. The 2 with Claudia she got taken down a decent amount but didn't absorb a ton of damage. KK did rock her though, and Andrade is a beast.

I can't see JDS/Stipe going the distance again. It's possible, but Stipe seems to take more chances now than he used to. Overeem had him hurt badly. JDS looks to have regained his quickness and power. I actually thought Stipe won the first fight, but I like this JDS KO prop.

If Masvidal wins, I can't see it any other way than him doing what Whittaker did to Jacare. Maia can't hang on the feet with Jorge, so it's very likely Maia grapplefucks him or Mas puts Maia away standing pretty easily.

And finally DP. I know a lot of people like Eddie here, but I think DP can find Eddie's chin and put him away. Eddie has been through a ton of wars. He has always been a guy with a good chin that gets hit a lot. Good offensive boxing, but not great defense. Getting blasted by Conor in his last fight isn't gonna help. DP got caught by MJ, no shame in that really, MJ has great hands. I just think DP is less shopworn than Eddie and does have the power to finish. And +405 is such a great line compared to his itd line (+275). Does anyone think DP will sub Eddie LOL?

I'm putting in some small bets on all of these right now and a little RR with them too.
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Wow those are some serious value lines, where did you get them?
 
JDS decisions Stipe
Andrade TKO's Joanna
Maia submits Masvidal
Frankie decisions Yair
Cejudo decisions Pettis
Alvarez decisions Poirier
 
lol @ everybody acting like they KNOW Andrade has a 5 round gas tank.
She carries a lot of muscle for the SW division.
 
My super ultra #elite plays right now are Yair dec, Eddie dec and Eddie/DP goes distance

Some very strong undercard leans
 
Joseph Budden said:
My super ultra #elite plays right now are Yair dec, Eddie dec and Eddie/DP goes distance

Some very strong undercard leans
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Wow, I think I'm in the opposite of those. Can Eddie take the DP punishment for 15 minutes? Maybe if he comes to wrestle, but will he?

Can Yair stop Frankie's takedowns?
 
Joseph Budden said:
My super ultra #elite plays right now are Yair dec, Eddie dec and Eddie/DP goes distance

Some very strong undercard leans
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Oh god you're on Yair? WHY? I was thinking of going heavy on Frankie

edit: I'm gonna be on DP too so you might as well give me your thoughts on that fight, too ;)
 
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