UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[Sapp]

I'll give you half my winnings if you insure me against loss.

 

[Sano]

What random picks.

 

[cheat toes]

im in

 

[RozHammil]

Cejudo over Pettis would be the only pick I'd have confidence in making.

 

[hyperLem]

IN. just waiting for my loan to come in (needed it after i lost my house on BJ and savings on Lobov), will post £50k slip for this parlay after i get it.

 

[BIKES!]

White belt gonna white belt

 

[Herwald]

Seems about right, except I'm not sold on Masvidal. Good luck to him - he's an interesting dude - but he's a failed 155er on a lucky & unimpressive 3 fight win streak (over-the-hill Ross Pearson, technicality against Ellenberger and a tired Cowboy). Maia should be able to beat him.

But I'm fine with being proven wrong.

 

[Melas Chasma]

And no, I'm not picking all of the favourites. I looked at the odds and 3/7 of my picks are underdogs.

So, you first made the picks and only checked the odds afterwards. Lol. Epic fail, noob amateur - EV bettor detected.

 

[Iroh]

Frankie will beat Yair

 

[Bitchka]

I don't even think Masvidal is going to make it past the 2nd. He'll get submitted

 

[Shoulder]

I'll be looking to play Andrade, she is 2.50 but should rise a bit. I don't think Joanna has the power to stop her form coming forward, and she's been in so many five rounders and taking a bit of damage in all of them? KK dropped her, and Andrade hits like a truck.

 

[mkess101]

I'll be looking to play Andrade, she is 2.50 but should rise a bit. I don't think Joanna has the power to stop her form coming forward, and she's been in so many five rounders and taking a bit of damage in all of them? KK dropped her, and Andrade hits like a truck.

There's some KO props that I really like.

Andrade KO +430
JDS KO +337
Masvidal KO +275
Poirier KO +405 (this probably my favorite)

I agree on Andrade, although JJ hasn't taken damage in all those fights. The 2 with Claudia she got taken down a decent amount but didn't absorb a ton of damage. KK did rock her though, and Andrade is a beast.

I can't see JDS/Stipe going the distance again. It's possible, but Stipe seems to take more chances now than he used to. Overeem had him hurt badly. JDS looks to have regained his quickness and power. I actually thought Stipe won the first fight, but I like this JDS KO prop.

If Masvidal wins, I can't see it any other way than him doing what Whittaker did to Jacare. Maia can't hang on the feet with Jorge, so it's very likely Maia grapplefucks him or Mas puts Maia away standing pretty easily.

And finally DP. I know a lot of people like Eddie here, but I think DP can find Eddie's chin and put him away. Eddie has been through a ton of wars. He has always been a guy with a good chin that gets hit a lot. Good offensive boxing, but not great defense. Getting blasted by Conor in his last fight isn't gonna help. DP got caught by MJ, no shame in that really, MJ has great hands. I just think DP is less shopworn than Eddie and does have the power to finish. And +405 is such a great line compared to his itd line (+275). Does anyone think DP will sub Eddie LOL?

I'm putting in some small bets on all of these right now and a little RR with them too.

 

[EzFlyer]

There's some KO props that I really like.

Andrade KO +430
JDS KO +337
Masvidal KO +275
Poirier KO +405 (this probably my favorite)

I agree on Andrade, although JJ hasn't taken damage in all those fights. The 2 with Claudia she got taken down a decent amount but didn't absorb a ton of damage. KK did rock her though, and Andrade is a beast.

I can't see JDS/Stipe going the distance again. It's possible, but Stipe seems to take more chances now than he used to. Overeem had him hurt badly. JDS looks to have regained his quickness and power. I actually thought Stipe won the first fight, but I like this JDS KO prop.

If Masvidal wins, I can't see it any other way than him doing what Whittaker did to Jacare. Maia can't hang on the feet with Jorge, so it's very likely Maia grapplefucks him or Mas puts Maia away standing pretty easily.

And finally DP. I know a lot of people like Eddie here, but I think DP can find Eddie's chin and put him away. Eddie has been through a ton of wars. He has always been a guy with a good chin that gets hit a lot. Good offensive boxing, but not great defense. Getting blasted by Conor in his last fight isn't gonna help. DP got caught by MJ, no shame in that really, MJ has great hands. I just think DP is less shopworn than Eddie and does have the power to finish. And +405 is such a great line compared to his itd line (+275). Does anyone think DP will sub Eddie LOL?

I'm putting in some small bets on all of these right now and a little RR with them too.

I agree with the Andrade bits, but not sure on jds-stipe.. I could see it going deep again...

Dp actually was more of a sub guy than a ko guy for a while.. but yea, in this matchup, dp ko > dp sub. But I'm on Eddie and Eddie Dec early on.

Agreed, Maia either gets his tds or loses

 

[Shoulder]

There's some KO props that I really like.

Andrade KO +430
JDS KO +337
Masvidal KO +275
Poirier KO +405 (this probably my favorite)

I agree on Andrade, although JJ hasn't taken damage in all those fights. The 2 with Claudia she got taken down a decent amount but didn't absorb a ton of damage. KK did rock her though, and Andrade is a beast.

I can't see JDS/Stipe going the distance again. It's possible, but Stipe seems to take more chances now than he used to. Overeem had him hurt badly. JDS looks to have regained his quickness and power. I actually thought Stipe won the first fight, but I like this JDS KO prop.

If Masvidal wins, I can't see it any other way than him doing what Whittaker did to Jacare. Maia can't hang on the feet with Jorge, so it's very likely Maia grapplefucks him or Mas puts Maia away standing pretty easily.

And finally DP. I know a lot of people like Eddie here, but I think DP can find Eddie's chin and put him away. Eddie has been through a ton of wars. He has always been a guy with a good chin that gets hit a lot. Good offensive boxing, but not great defense. Getting blasted by Conor in his last fight isn't gonna help. DP got caught by MJ, no shame in that really, MJ has great hands. I just think DP is less shopworn than Eddie and does have the power to finish. And +405 is such a great line compared to his itd line (+275). Does anyone think DP will sub Eddie LOL?

I'm putting in some small bets on all of these right now and a little RR with them too.

I love those as well. I'm not quite sure how Eddie is doing, he took son much damage vs Connor and he always gets rocked. Poirer is such a good offensive fighter I'm sure he will hurt Alvarez ones. Might play the ends in Ko just to play it safe.

No, she hasn't taken super much, I just think all these 5 rounders takes it toll. Does she have the foot work to keep Andrade off her?

I'm pretty big on Maia, I just think it will eventually end up in the clinch and even if Mas is really good there so is Maia such a beast ones he gets a hold of you. If he can't get Mas down, he will most def lose.

 

[Polarize]

JJ-Andrade o3.5(-170)&Pettis-Cejudo o2.5 (-250) +122.

I have to watch tape but I like this.

 

[mkess101]

I love those as well. I'm not quite sure how Eddie is doing, he took son much damage vs Connor and he always gets rocked. Poirer is such a good offensive fighter I'm sure he will hurt Alvarez ones. Might play the ends in Ko just to play it safe.

No, she hasn't taken super much, I just think all these 5 rounders takes it toll. Does she have the foot work to keep Andrade off her?

I'm pretty big on Maia, I just think it will eventually end up in the clinch and even if Mas is really good there so is Maia such a beast ones he gets a hold of you. If he can't get Mas down, he will most def lose.

If you are big on Maia the Mas KO prop seems like the perfect hedge (if you ever do hedge). With odds where they are, I actually think a big Maia ML bet paired with Mas KO as a hedge is a great play.

 

[Shoulder]

If you are big on Maia the Mas KO prop seems like the perfect hedge (if you ever do hedge). With odds where they are, I actually think a big Maia ML bet paired with Mas KO as a hedge is a great play.

That's great advice, I'll look into that!

Regarding JDS Stiepe I really don't know, I guess the under will be a good play.

 

[mkess101]

That's great advice, I'll look into that!

Regarding JDS Stiepe I really don't know, I guess the under will be a good play.

They slugged it out for 5 rounds once, I don't see that happening again but man IDK about u1.5. I think I'd rather just play JDS by KO at these juicy odds. For reference, 5d has these lines right now:

JDS +145
Miocic -165

JDS KO/TKO +337
Miocic KO/TKO +101

I mean, what?? If you think it ends itd (which for a HW fight schedule for 5 rounds with two guys that obviously have power like most HW's do seems logical) then you of course think it's gonna be a KO/TKO right? Sub seems very unlikely. So you have a slight to moderate -165 favorite with his prop at +101 only but the slight to moderate dog's KO prop is at +337?? Makes no sense, all the value is on JDS KO imo. It's not like Stipe hasn't been put away before, Struve KO'd him. So we aren't talking about a guy who's chin has never been cracked.

 

[piglord]

i'm normally a parlay guy but i like a lot of dogs on this card. wondering how i should allocate my money because i hardly ever use straight bets as my main plays.

i'm doing some combination of pettis, andrade, masvidal, yair.

 

[Yotsuya]

I can't see JDS/Stipe going the distance again. It's possible, but Stipe seems to take more chances now than he used to. Overeem had him hurt badly.

Could have been partially to please the home crowd as Stipe is really big celeb in Cleveland and seems to enjoy it a great deal. I see him fighting way more consevatively this time, but of course it's possible, that getting the belt has made him overconfident. This is definetly an aspect I try to keep my eyes on.