UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[Sham5916910]

Having a hard time getting aboard Andrade. She lost to some rather mediocre fighters that JJ would smash.

If this ends up being 5 rounds of striking i think JJ runs away with it.

Even Andrades last 3 wins are against meh fighters. Hill is ok but beating Calderwood and Penne isnt saying much.

If the best ever much improved version of Andrade shows up and JJ is a bit off then perhaps we could see an upset. Counting on an Andrade KO at this weight class v JJ seems unwise.

I am pretty sure JJ will just go 5 and edge the decision. -170 holds a bit of value but its about right.

Andrade lost to fighters 20lbs above where she should have been fighting. While mw to lhw for example isnt so extreme at the lighter classes 20lbs is massive. Calderwood is a solid fighter and so is hill. Its not so much about who andrade has beaten at sw but how she beat them. She friggin destroyed every one of them.

 

[edole]

Andrade lost to fighters 20lbs above where she should have been fighting. While mw to lhw for example isnt so extreme at the lighter classes 20lbs is massive. Calderwood is a solid fighter and so is hill. Its not so much about who andrade has beaten at sw but how she beat them. She friggin destroyed every one of them.

She got dropped by hill

 

[Joseph Budden]

Right now Andrade dec +450 seems like the line with the best value. Livebet bet all the way though. If only JJ had takedowns in her game, cause Andrade seems like female Lineker to me but its a tough style for JJ

 

[Joseph Budden]

if this luca guy sucks so much where does he get the cash to throw such high wagers?

Look a few posts above this one to see he made fucking $40k just from his tout service lol jesus

Oh god you're on Yair? WHY? I was thinking of going heavy on Frankie

edit: I'm gonna be on DP too so you might as well give me your thoughts on that fight, too

Can see Frankie scoring tds and holding top position, but i'm on board Yair being the best prospect in the entire sport. Think he can kick the shit out of Frankie from range, just need him to scramble back to his feet when Frankie goes for those tds

 

[Antagonist88]

if this luca guy sucks so much where does he get the cash to throw such high wagers?

Pretty sure he uses $10 units even, so numbers have to be made up with extra 0s added.

Right now Andrade dec +450 seems like the line with the best value. Livebet bet all the way though. If only JJ had takedowns in her game, cause Andrade seems like female Lineker to me but its a tough style for JJ

Agree completely about the female Lineker comparison. Feel like this is the WMMA equivalent of Linker vs Dodson, but this time the Dodson has a reach advantage.

Personally I'm going to be all over JJ DEC and probably live bet

 

[Sham5916910]

She got dropped by hill

Jj got hurt by claudia and kk. Andrade wasnt hurt jj was hurt pretty bad by kk. Your point...

 

[Sham5916910]

Pretty sure he uses $10 units even, so numbers have to be made up with extra 0s added.

Agree completely about the female Lineker comparison. Feel like this is the WMMA equivalent of Linker vs Dodson, but this time the Dodson has a reach advantage.

Personally I'm going to be all over JJ DEC and probably live bet

Jj been hurt last two fights. She doesnt have dodsons insane chin

 

[edole]

Jj got hurt by claudia and kk. Andrade wasnt hurt jj was hurt pretty bad by kk. Your point...

That was in response to your suggestion that Andrade dominated hill. Hill certainly lost a clear decision but it seems disingenuous to claim she was "dominated". She certainly had her moments in that fight and was never in any real danger of being finished.

 

[Monster Meat]

couple value plays i really like
cejudo by decision -117 and jj by dec +153

im suprised to see so many on andrade. If she doesnt get the early knockout i cant see how she keeps pace with jj and wins a decision. Not saying i would be shocked if jj gets caught although shes been rocked she still hasnt been put away. The over 3.5 at -170 is another i really like.

also love the overs on yair edgar and cejudo pettis.

 

[DarkneT]

UHHHHH this cards gunna cost me a fortune or make me a millionaire I like all the dogs in this one including Andrade and Jorge

 

[Jamah]

guys, get ready for line movement

 

[piglord]

UHHHHH this cards gunna cost me a fortune or make me a millionaire I like all the dogs in this one including Andrade and Jorge

yeah this is probably going to be the most dogs i've ever played in one card.

 

[mkess101]

Wow those are some serious value lines, where did you get them?

Sorry just saw this. 5dimes

 

[piglord]

i think cejudo is going to have trouble overcoming the 2 inch height advantage and 5 inch reach advantage of pettis. pettis has a good jab and manages range well.

cejudo is obviously the better wrestler but pettis is working on that aspect of his game. i think this fight shoudl be a pick 'em at worse, i actually slightly favour pettis.

 

[mkess101]

Oh god you're on Yair? WHY? I was thinking of going heavy on Frankie

edit: I'm gonna be on DP too so you might as well give me your thoughts on that fight, too

Do you agree that a finish is pretty unlikely in Frankie/Yair? I mean, seems kinda obvious but maybe you see it differently. But if you do agree than it's just a matter of odds. Frankie dec is +115, Yair dec is +345. Do I slightly favor Frankie? Yeah. But in a fight I think sees the cards an overwhelming majority of the time, I'll take the guy I think has a 40-45% chance of getting the nod at +345 for sure. No brainer.

With you on DP though. Eddie has been so hittable for so long. I broke it down in an earlier fight of his. His offensive boxing is good, no doubt. But if you watch him (and he did it again vs Conor who is probably the absolute WORST guy to do it against) he throws a combo and then waits a beat before he resets. He gets tagged SO often once his opponents realize he's still gonna be there for a tick after he throws. Cerrone caught him multiple times because of it. It **seems** correctable, but he's done it since Pride honestly, so I don't see it changing. DP is the kind of guy that can take advantage. That's why I'm on the DP by KO prop at over +400. I think DP starches Eddie at some point.

 

[iGnP]

Do you agree that a finish is pretty unlikely in Frankie/Yair? I mean, seems kinda obvious but maybe you see it differently. But if you do agree than it's just a matter of odds. Frankie dec is +115, Yair dec is +345. Do I slightly favor Frankie? Yeah. But in a fight I think sees the cards an overwhelming majority of the time, I'll take the guy I think has a 40-45% chance of getting the nod at +345 for sure. No brainer.

With you on DP though. Eddie has been so hittable for so long. I broke it down in an earlier fight of his. His offensive boxing is good, no doubt. But if you watch him (and he did it again vs Conor who is probably the absolute WORST guy to do it against) he throws a combo and then waits a beat before he resets. He gets tagged SO often once his opponents realize he's still gonna be there for a tick after he throws. Cerrone caught him multiple times because of it. It **seems** correctable, but he's done it since Pride honestly, so I don't see it changing. DP is the kind of guy that can take advantage. That's why I'm on the DP by KO prop at over +400. I think DP starches Eddie at some point.

Idk I think I can see a Frankie sub or a Yair TKO. Would not feel comfortable with Yair decision against the wrestling and cardio advantage that Frankie's gonna have.

 

[SBJJ]

Idk I think I can see a Frankie sub or a Yair TKO. Would not feel comfortable with Yair decision against the wrestling and cardio advantage that Frankie's gonna have.

Cardio advantage?? U serious. I'm not saying Yair has better cardio. But he has DAMN good cardio. He might have the best damn cardio in the UFC

 

[iGnP]

Cardio advantage?? U serious. I'm not saying Yair has better cardio. But he has DAMN good cardio. He might have the best damn cardio in the UFC

Not sure how you can say when he was considerably slower in the second half of the second round and third round against Rosa. Sure enough, that was a fight that was very grappling heavy

 

[mkess101]

Idk I think I can see a Frankie sub or a Yair TKO. Would not feel comfortable with Yair decision against the wrestling and cardio advantage that Frankie's gonna have.

There's a wrestling edge for sure. Probably a cardio edge too, but in a 3 round fight I don't think it will matter. Yair's style uses a lot of energy (throwing all those flashy kicks, etc.) and he was fresh all the way through 25 minutes vs Caceras. I don't think cardio will play a role at all.

I'm not saying a finish is impossible, just unlikely. And with the new scoring, I really think Yair has a reasonable chance to win a decision. Less than 50% obviously, but at +345 there's value. I'd say my breakdown in terms of likelihood of outcome is:

Frankie Dec 35-40%
Yair Dec 30-35%
Yair itd 10-15%
Frankie itd 10-15%

I'm not gonna go nuts on it or anything, but I do like the value.

 

[mkess101]

Cardio advantage?? U serious. I'm not saying Yair has better cardio. But he has DAMN good cardio. He might have the best damn cardio in the UFC

25 minutes at Mexico City elevation pushing an absolutely ridiculous pace even in rds 4 and 5. Best cardio in the UFC...