UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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Xenophon Hendrix said:
Thanks. So that's not an example of a trap line, then.
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no. Basically, each bookie adjusts their own line according to much money they personally got on each side. Now, if arbitrage opportunities exist across bookies, people take them until lines everywhere are effectively equal. Dont worry young padawan, myself and my elite Jedi betting knights will train you.

Arb opportunities are just a product of MMA betting being relatively small and niche. If this was the stock market, these types of marginal free profit spots would be instantly taken advantage of by computers and programs, and whoever had the fastest internet connection would win.

Some trading company in NYC paid a shit ton of money to get a perfectly straight internet cable routed from the ISP to their office underground, to give them nanosecond edges over their rivals. theres a book about it, cant remember the deets right now.
 
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KeystoneKannon said:
I wanted to point this out because I haven't seen it brought up yet. Frankie was pretty badly injured going into UFC 205. Apparently he knowingly fought that fight with a torn MCL and also had issues with his back. Based on that I think it is foolish to take that performance as evidence of him slowing down.

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/...eveals-ufc-205-camp-was-total-disaster-112316
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I don't think he's looked that great for awhile now. I just think this is gonna be tough for him
 
mkess101 said:
Nah @SBJJ is 100% right. Even if it wasn't something he had designs on doing at first, once he realized he had the ability to move lines (once his subscribers starting hammering his picks) it would be pretty difficult to NOT see how easy some guaranteed profit would be on every event.
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Exactly. I don't think he set out doing it. But I think he's for sure the type to do it now.

Everyone has seen me post large bet slips. Imagine if I played both sides large and only made public my winning bets. Of course I'd lose some decent scratch playing both sides. But my ability to sucker in large packs into shifting lines in the future would make it all worth it
 
SBJJ said:
Exactly. I don't think he set out doing it. But I think he's for sure the type to do it now.

Everyone has seen me post large bet slips. Imagine if I played both sides large and only made public my winning bets. Of course I'd lose some decent scratch playing both sides. But my ability to sucker in large packs into shifting lines in the future would make it all worth it
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what about the roadblock of getting limited though.
 
SBJJ said:
I don't think he's looked that great for awhile now. I just think this is gonna be tough for him
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You may be right, but I am seeing a lot of posters saying Frankie looked slow in his last fight. He apparently fought it on one leg and still won convincingly.
 
KeystoneKannon said:
You may be right, but I am seeing a lot of posters saying Frankie looked slow in his last fight. He apparently fought it on one leg and still won convincingly.
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I think I had Frankie decision and was sweating bullets. He was getting hit with shots he should have never been getting hit with
 
While I love Yari, I think people are overrating him here a little bit. Who is his best win? Andre Fili?

People love to remember a fighters last fight the most, Yari by domination of B.J. and Frankie barley getting by Stephens while getting dropped.

Yari has never faced a strong wrestler like Frankie, and to go from B.J Penn straight to Frankie is a big much too soon I think.

People have mentioned Frankie fighting injured now against Stephens as well.

Franke has only lost to Aldo and Henderson in the last 9 years!

I think Frankie will be too much for him and overwhelm him with his wrestling/grinding style.
 
SBJJ said:
I think I had Frankie decision and was sweating bullets. He was getting hit with shots he should have never been getting hit with
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Also I can't see how you came to the conclusion that he has been slowing down for a while now. Before UFC 205 he lost to Aldo, no shame in that. The fight before that he KOed Chad Mendes in the 1st round. The fight before that he 50-45ed Urijah. Before that he absolutely brutalized and subbed Cub Swanson. Based on his recent performances and what we know about his health going into UFC 205 I just don't see how we can say he is slowing down.

To be clear, I'm not saying Frankie should be a huge play here, or that he is even a bet at all. I just don't see the pro-Yair sentiment as being unbiased.
 
Stipe at 1.75 vs JDS 2.00

Good for Stipe backers.

Anymore on Stipe is a bonus, 180-190 Stipe would be a steal. (edit found Stipe at 1.90)
 
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KeystoneKannon said:
Also I can't see how you came to the conclusion that he has been slowing down for a while now. Before UFC 205 he lost to Aldo, no shame in that. The fight before that he KOed Chad Mendes in the 1st round. The fight before that he 50-45ed Urijah. Before that he absolutely brutalized and subbed Cub Swanson. Based on his recent performances and what we know about his health going into UFC 205 I just don't see how we can say he is slowing down.

To be clear, I'm not saying Frankie should be a huge play here, or that he is even a bet at all. I just don't see the pro-Yair sentiment as being unbiased.
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He didn't look great against Da Bronx, didn't look great against Stephens. Looked like he was losing a step in both.

At some point new guys take over. It's just what happens. If Frankie can't keep Yair grounded the majority of the fight then how does he win? He's not winning standing.

As for the Cub win. I just don't think Cub has ever been that good. He's fun and flashy but I don't think he's great. The Mendes fight was fluky as hell IMO.

I'm just not gonna bet Frankie as a juiced fave here
 
He didn't look great in a fight he won 4 years ago, and he didn't look great in a fight he won with back problems and a torn MCL... I mean if that's a strong enough case to go against the guy then okay. I likely won't have a bet on the fight so I wish you luck.
 
SBJJ said:
As for the Cub win. I just don't think Cub has ever been that good. He's fun and flashy but I don't think he's great. The Mendes fight was fluky as hell IMO.
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Cub + Mendes wins >>>>>>>>> anything Yair has ever accomplished
 
KeystoneKannon said:
He didn't look great in a fight he won 4 years ago, and he didn't look great in a fight he won with back problems and a torn MCL... I mean if that's a strong enough case to go against the guy then okay. I likely won't have a bet on the fight so I wish you luck.
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I explained what I thought of the Mendes and Swanson fights. I see no reason to even go into the Penn or Aldo fights. I brought up Da Bronx because he sort of has the same style that Yair has except I think Yair is much faster and plain better. If u feel so strongly about it then just bet the F'n fight.
 
iGnP said:
Cub + Mendes wins >>>>>>>>> anything Yair has ever accomplished
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It's because Yair hasn't fought them. There was a time Jon Jones and GSP hadn't fought the best guys. Didn't mean they couldn't beat them. It's the reason GSP was a dog the second time he fought Hughes.

It's an eye test thing. Yair is unproven but looks to be the real deal and improving rapidly. Frankie looks to be slowing just a bit and getting hit with shots that he wouldn't have been hit with before.

Frankie also has been the recipient of an INSANE amount of punishment and had MAJOR miles on his body.

Frankie WILL! Take Yair down. I just question if he will keep him down. If he can't consistently keep him down I see him having big problems
 
Not that it matters. In a week the fight will probably be a pick em. And I'm looking for +145 at least
 
SBJJ said:
It's because Yair hasn't fought them. There was a time Jon Jones and GSP hadn't fought the best guys. Didn't mean they couldn't beat them. It's the reason GSP was a dog the second time he fought Hughes.

It's an eye test thing. Yair is unproven but looks to be the real deal and improving rapidly. Frankie looks to be slowing just a bit and getting hit with shots that he wouldn't have been hit with before.

Frankie also has been the recipient of an INSANE amount of punishment and had MAJOR miles on his body.

Frankie WILL! Take Yair down. I just question if he will keep him down. If he can't consistently keep him down I see him having big problems
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Yes but JJ and GSP absolutely destroyed whoever was put in front of them. Yair went to a split decision against BLR and Rosa lol. I just think its a little weird to discount the Cub and Mendes wins when Edgar absolutely destroyed them
 
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