UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

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He bets thousands of dollars, and he has a lot of subscribers. He has that sort of influence
I listened to his podcast and he picked JDS.
Last Event he bet the Under 2.5 rounds in the Dodson fight and he moved the line from +100 to -200
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this. I really want him to be a liar and a fake, but I can't ignore proof.

#Elite bettors listen to Fury's podcast because they know there can be a massive #valuebet fading him when the line swings.
 
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well fuck me i cant argue w that if that's true
 
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this. I really want him to be a liar and a fake, but I can't ignore proof.

#Elite bettors listen to Fury's podcast because they know there can be a massive #valuebet fading him when the line swings.

ffs he makes 10k$ bets and he has a ton of subscribers, ofc he moves the line.
I'm not elite, but I'm not dumb either. I try to help by posting his plays and podcast picks, we can take advantage of the line movement like it happened in the Elkins-Bektic fight where he was huge on Bektic, or the Dodson fight last event.
 
Prop lines for jds/stipe still down on 5dimes. Luca screwed them all up. Probably took jds straight considering how the lines moved
 
ffs he makes 10k$ bets and he has a ton of subscribers, ofc he moves the line.
I'm not elite, but I'm not dumb either. I try to help by posting his plays and podcast picks, we can take advantage of the line movement like it happened in the Elkins-Bektic fight where he was huge on Bektic, or the Dodson fight last event.
IDK man honestly I wouldnt have ever heard of the guy if you guys never posted about him in this thread. I would take EVERYTHING he says with a grain of salt. I'm positive he's gonna embellish his # of subscribers (to what extent, idk) and how much he's betting on every fight in order to attract new clients. Although I do agree that the line moves coinciding with his picks is supporting the idea that he's influencing money on fights, I doubt he's got a large following.
 
IDK man honestly I wouldnt have ever heard of the guy if you guys never posted about him in this thread. I would take EVERYTHING he says with a grain of salt. I'm positive he's gonna embellish his # of subscribers (to what extent, idk) and how much he's betting on every fight in order to attract new clients. Although I do agree that the line moves coinciding with his picks is supporting the idea that he's influencing money on fights, I doubt he's got a large following.
For sure you can fake bet slips and subscriber counts, but you cant fake the line swings.

He's got the most subscribers of any tout, that I am almost certain of. How many? No idea, but more than anyone else.
 
IDK man honestly I wouldnt have ever heard of the guy if you guys never posted about him in this thread. I would take EVERYTHING he says with a grain of salt. I'm positive he's gonna embellish his # of subscribers (to what extent, idk) and how much he's betting on every fight in order to attract new clients. Although I do agree that the line moves coinciding with his picks is supporting the idea that he's influencing money on fights, I doubt he's got a large following.

He posted some of his bet slips, I can't know for sure if they are fake or not

 
Still plenty more footage to watch and rewatch but current early opinions....

Benitez - Super confident, massive leg kicks to set up high kicks. Chance of a submission if he stuns Barzola on the feet like the Sicilia fight. Hopefully playable odds on Benitez ITD.

James Vick - Far more polished overall, cleaner striker. Think he can win the fight anywhere, can see him grabbing a neck at some point and getting another guillotine or D'arce.

Jotko - Better overall fighter and keeps improving, has the defensive grappling to keep it on the feet and win it there. Even if he does get taken down he has superb submission defence and positional ability. Probably takes a decision.

Skelly - Great exciting match up, one of the closest fights. I've counted Knight out before and it's come back to bite me but I'm going to side with Skelly here. He had the wrestling to interrupt Knight's forward pressure barrage of strikes, previous opponents without that offensive wrestling ability have found themselves drawn into a brawl. There is a worry that Knight's relentless pressure and constant sub attempts cause Skelly to gas and he takes advantage. I only give Skelly the slight advantage and may very well likely stay clear of either and play the over.

Poirier - Depends how Alvarez looks after McGregor. Poirier has decent boxing, dirty boxing and could stun Alvarez. Plus he has solid TDD, wouldn't count Alvarez out by any means but I like Poirier here.


Cejudo - Controls his way to a decision. Pettis has an active sweep and sub game but won't be enough once he's on his back, doubt he can keep it standing long enough to make it count. Poor odds for Cejudo, might play his decision line instead but can't imagine it'll be too appealing either.

Rodriguez - Frankie is aging, albeit still good. Rodriguez is the next big thing. Edgar got caught clean by a Stephens kick and I see Rodriguez landing heavy kicks and finishing him, love his ML, will definitely play it.

Maia - Love Masvidal, been a fan since Bodog, picked him to beat Cerrone. But Maia will secure bodylock takedowns and control him. Masvidal has the clear advantage on the feet and is crafty on the mat too with good scrambling ability. Maia is next level though, his chain wrestling is fantastic and I see Maia tangling him up and subbing him late in the 2nd or 3rd.

Jedrezejczyk - Takes a decision, maybe caught a few times along the way. She's the far more polished striker, good TDD and tested over 5 rounds. Andrade dominated Hill and didn't look gassed despite her high output but this isn't Angela Hill, Andrade is a solid fighter but I just don't see her winning.

JDS - Probably plays out similar to the first fight, he has great recovery but I wouldn't be shocked if Miocic got put away by JDS. He has more power in punches and Miocic will struggle to secure takedowns on him.


Well since you opened the poison box, I'm all the same currently except JDS, JJ and Maia. Dont see Maia getting the sub even with a takedown and he's going to be dead man standing by rd3.Can't say I'll finish here come fight time though.
 
I try to help by posting his plays and podcast picks, we can take advantage of the line movement like it happened in the Elkins-Bektic fight where he was huge on Bektic.
I appreciate this kind of info very much! I just hope that these posts could happen without bashing bettors selling betting tips, which just creates unneccessary drama and noise on topics that shoud be mostly about betting info. I do understand, that strongly self-promoting persons like Luca can get into people's nerves though. Maybe there shoud be a separate thread for discussing that stuff.
 
Man. The growth in online betting has fucked up MMA betting. I used to be able to bet 25k on a fight in Vegas and barely move the line. Now a tout gets all his minions to move these lines drastically.

But like others have said. We gots to take advantage of it. I was leaning JDS at +160. But now I'm looking at Stipe at evens
 
wtf, I check Luca's twitter for the 1st time and see this?

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smh...
 
Also. What I think Luca does is bet the fighter he is against before he comes out with his public picks. Then hedges after for a guaranteed profit. along with his subscribers fees. It's probably a very healthy income.

Give me a heads up next time Luca, Would have loved to have hit JDS in Vegas right before your public pick
 
Also. What I think Luca does is bet the fighter he is against before he comes out with his public picks. Then hedges after for a guaranteed profit. along with his subscribers fees. It's probably a very healthy income.

Give me a heads up next time Luca, Would have loved to have hit JDS in Vegas right before your public pick
Wouldn't the bookies limit the shit out of him if he consistently did that?
 
Wouldn't the bookies limit the shit out of him if he consistently did that?
Yea. Happens in the stock market all the time. Analysts pump a stock they already own and then dump it on the masses at an inflated price. Or beat the shit out of a company publicly then buy it from the poor chaps selling it after it craters. So many ways to game the system.
 
Also. What I think Luca does is bet the fighter he is against before he comes out with his public picks. Then hedges after for a guaranteed profit. along with his subscribers fees. It's probably a very healthy income.

Give me a heads up next time Luca, Would have loved to have hit JDS in Vegas right before your public pick
I think we might be giving Luca a little too much credit here. No offence to our friend but I don't think he's actually that clever.
 
I'm new at trying to understand MMA betting (sports betting in general, really). What is the significance when one sports book has Junior Dos Santos +115, Stipe Miocic -145 for an extended period of time when the rest of the books have something approximately like Junior Dos Santos -105, Stipe Miocic -115?
 
I think we might be giving Luca a little too much credit here. No offence to our friend but I don't think he's actually that clever.

Nah @SBJJ is 100% right. Even if it wasn't something he had designs on doing at first, once he realized he had the ability to move lines (once his subscribers starting hammering his picks) it would be pretty difficult to NOT see how easy some guaranteed profit would be on every event.
 
I'm new at trying to understand MMA betting (sports betting in general, really). What is the significance when one sports book has Junior Dos Santos +115, Stipe Miocic -145 for an extended period of time when the rest of the books have something approximately like Junior Dos Santos -105, Stipe Miocic -115?

It most likely means that one book is getting a bit more action on one fighter and has adjusted their line accordingly. Books generally don't want exposure to outcomes. Meaning they prefer that there's $ bet on each side to the point where the losers are essentially "paying" the winners and the book just collects the juice. No risk for them, just guaranteed 10-20% profit.
 
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