UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[JDB]

Based on his recent performances and what we know about his health going into UFC 205 I just don't see how we can say he is slowing down.

-Frankie is 35 (Yair 24,) everyone slows at that age.
-He's been through more multiple 5 round wars than just about anyone.
-Lastly, as of a few weeks ago, Frankie officially has more ring time then any other fighter on the UFC roaster, ever.

Basically he's been through the meat grinder, he has slowed, trust me on that.

 

[cagebrain]

While I love Yari, I think people are overrating him here a little bit. Who is his best win? Andre Fili?

People love to remember a fighters last fight the most, Yari by domination of B.J. and Frankie barley getting by Stephens while getting dropped.

Yari has never faced a strong wrestler like Frankie, and to go from B.J Penn straight to Frankie is a big much too soon I think.

People have mentioned Frankie fighting injured now against Stephens as well.

Franke has only lost to Aldo and Henderson in the last 9 years!

I think Frankie will be too much for him and overwhelm him with his wrestling/grinding style.

Yari?

 

[SBJJ]

Once again, Swanson gets way to much love. So much love that dudes were going broke because they thought he was gonna smash Lobov. And do u really think the Mendes fight was normal? U think Mendes was mentally there and it wasn't flukish?

Yes Yair went the distance with Rosa and BLR. But BLR was no damn split to anyone that watched. As for Rosa, Yair was literally on deaths door that fight. But the big thing is...Yair is obviously improving at a fast clip.

I'm not touting. I just saw a decent dog IMO. This place is getting crazy lately so I really hardly post anymore. But I will now and then when I see good spots.

I'm hoping Yair gets back to +150 but I think it's going the other way. The vocal guys seem to be arguing for Frankie while people are quietly betting Yair.

Maybe Luca will come out for Frankie

 

[SBJJ]

Yari?

Lofl

 

[iGnP]

Once again, Swanson gets way to much love. So much love that dudes were going broke because they thought he was gonna smash Lobov. And do u really think the Mendes fight was normal? U think Mendes was mentally there and it wasn't flukish?

Yes Yair went the distance with Rosa and BLR. But BLR was no damn split to anyone that watched. As for Rosa, Yair was literally on deaths door that fight. But the big thing is...Yair is obviously improving at a fast clip.

I'm not touting. I just saw a decent dog IMO. This place is getting crazy lately so I really hardly post anymore. But I will now and then when I see good spots.

I'm hoping Yair gets back to +150 but I think it's going the other way. The vocal guys seem to be arguing for Frankie while people are quietly betting Yair.

Maybe Luca will come out for Frankie

Cub literally beats anyone except the elite of the division. And no, I don't think the Mendes fight was a fluke. A lot of people here were talking about how much better Frankie's boxing is compared to Mendes and he would win the stand up while their ground games would be negated. Was the actual result of a knock out a fluke? Maybe, maybe not. But let's not act as though this was a case of Yushin Okami knocking out a prime Anderson Silva lol

 

[SlayKatzNY]

Mostly lurk on these threads while enjoying all of your excellent insights. Thought I would use you as a soundboard as I delve into my Maia / Masvidal thinking.

Let me preface my brief analysis with the context that I've been a Masvidal fan since his Miami street fighting days. I enjoy his style, personality and his well-rounded skill set. With that said, I don't believe he will beat Maia. I think we see a quintessential, grapple heavy Maia performance.

Masvidal has always had underrated grappling and wrestling. Nonetheless, Maia has dominated stronger wrestlers in DHK, Story, Fitch, La Flare and more recently, Gunnar. Maia has improved his cardio and has 5-round experience. A 3-rounder favors Maia incase his cardio doesn't hold up. Regardless, Maia has reverted back to the BJJ wizard of old. Utilizing relentless pressure and an uncanny ability to leverage chain wrestling and slick singles. Though he has improved his striking and become somewhat competent, Maia will lose if he is unable to take down Masvidal. Even still, Maia has a clear avenue to success and I do not believe Masvidal is capable of controlling the distance and keeping Maia off him for extended periods.

As of now, I have one existing parlay with the final legs being Cejudo / Maia. I bet 150 to win 500.

May play Maia straight as well if I can get him at even or -110.

 

[SBJJ]

Cub literally beats anyone except the elite of the division. And no, I don't think the Mendes fight was a fluke. A lot of people here were talking about how much better Frankie's boxing is compared to Mendes and he would win the stand up while their ground games would be negated. Was the actual result of a knock out a fluke? Maybe, maybe not. But let's not act as though this was a case of Yushin Okami knocking out a prime Anderson Silva lol

We just disagree on things. If you think Frankie is such a bad matchup for Yair I'd suggest waiting. Because the way things are going he will end up the dog. I wish the vocal guys on this site actually bet. Seems like every event the "Elite" and vocal group yells about fights meanwhile the other side gets bet

 

[cagebrain]

Mostly lurk on these threads while enjoying all of your excellent insights. Thought I would use you as a soundboard as I delve into my Maia / Masvidal thinking.

Let me preface my brief analysis with the context that I've been a Masvidal fan since his Miami street fighting days. I enjoy his style, personality and his well-rounded skill set. With that said, I don't believe he will beat Maia. I think we see a quintessential, grapple heavy Maia performance.

Masvidal has always had underrated grappling and wrestling. Nonetheless, Maia has dominated stronger wrestlers in DHK, Story, Fitch, La Flare and more recently, Gunnar. Maia has improved his cardio and has 5-round experience. A 3-rounder favors Maia incase his cardio doesn't hold up. Regardless, Maia has reverted back to the BJJ wizard of old. Utilizing relentless pressure and an uncanny ability to leverage chain wrestling and slick singles. Though he has improved his striking and become somewhat competent, Maia will lose if he is unable to take down Masvidal. Even still, Maia has a clear avenue to success and I do not believe Masvidal is capable of controlling the distance and keeping Maia off him for extended periods.

As of now, I have one existing parlay with the final legs being Cejudo / Maia. I bet 150 to win 500.

May play Maia straight as well if I can get him at even or -110.

agree

welcome to the forum!

 

[SBJJ]

Mostly lurk on these threads while enjoying all of your excellent insights. Thought I would use you as a soundboard as I delve into my Maia / Masvidal thinking.

Let me preface my brief analysis with the context that I've been a Masvidal fan since his Miami street fighting days. I enjoy his style, personality and his well-rounded skill set. With that said, I don't believe he will beat Maia. I think we see a quintessential, grapple heavy Maia performance.

Masvidal has always had underrated grappling and wrestling. Nonetheless, Maia has dominated stronger wrestlers in DHK, Story, Fitch, La Flare and more recently, Gunnar. Maia has improved his cardio and has 5-round experience. A 3-rounder favors Maia incase his cardio doesn't hold up. Regardless, Maia has reverted back to the BJJ wizard of old. Utilizing relentless pressure and an uncanny ability to leverage chain wrestling and slick singles. Though he has improved his striking and become somewhat competent, Maia will lose if he is unable to take down Masvidal. Even still, Maia has a clear avenue to success and I do not believe Masvidal is capable of controlling the distance and keeping Maia off him for extended periods.

As of now, I have one existing parlay with the final legs being Cejudo / Maia. I bet 150 to win 500.

May play Maia straight as well if I can get him at even or -110.

Man, I hear ya. I love Mas and I'd probably bet him at +160 or so. But Maia at evens in a 3 rounder against anyone seems a no brainier.

 

[Mcgregorian]

There is a while to go but these are my backings at this stage

Main picks
Miocic
JJ
Alvarez
Yair

Others
Pettis DEC + Overs for safety
Knight SUB

Pretty confident i won't change my main picks unless something drastic happens.

Thoughts?

 

[Sadistics]

Knight SUB

Pretty confident i won't change my main picks unless something drastic happens.

Thoughts?

I do think Knight will win but I can't see him subbing Skelly

 

[Yotsuya]

no. Basically, each bookie adjusts their own line according to much money they personally got on each side. Now, if arbitrage opportunities exist across bookies, people take them until lines everywhere are effectively equal. Dont worry young padawan, myself and my elite Jedi betting knights will train you.

Arb opportunities are just a product of MMA betting being relatively small and niche. If this was the stock market, these types of marginal free profit spots would be instantly taken advantage of by computers and programs, and whoever had the fastest internet connection would win.

Btw, I got banned from one of the lesser bookies for taking "an obliously bad line". They had 2.60 odds for Cynthia Calvillo against Pearl Gonzales when the fight reappeared after the silicon gate. So I registered, got few hundred in and took the line. I've just been wondering, what the hell was it all about and got worried, if it is really that easy to get banned. I've heard that bettors suspected of arbitrage betting can get banned like that.

 

[Sham5916910]

Btw, I got banned from one of the lesser bookies for taking "an obliously bad line". They had 2.60 odds for Cynthia Calvillo against Pearl Gonzales when the fight reappeared after the silicon gate. So I registered, got few hundred in and took the line. I've just been wondering, what the hell was it all about and got worried, if it is really that easy to get banned. I've heard that bettors suspected of arbitrage betting can get banned like that.

Never bet reversed lines unless you want to get banned.

 

[Yotsuya]

Never bet reversed lines unless you want to get banned.

Good to know. I thought the lines might have gotten reversed, but it didn't quite make sense either back then, as other bookies had Gonzales at 3.2 or something like that. But I suppose the lines were moving a lot that day, because now that I checked, she closed under 3.0 at most bookies.

 

[Mcgregorian]

I do think Knight will win but I can't see him subbing Skelly

He posted some of his bet slips, I can't know for sure if they are fake or not

I dont think these are fake. But seriously. It's not alot of money. I had a quarter of that on Whittaker and i'm in Australia. Now imagine how many people around the world bet UFC. No fucking way he is solely responsible for line movement....

 

[Mcgregorian]

I do think Knight will win but I can't see him subbing Skelly

Thanks. Will probably back Knight and small on the DEC.

 

[NorthernLights]

http://mmajunkie.com/2017/04/chas-s...ne-redneck-in-this-145-pound-ufc-trailer-park

“The only thing I say is, there’s only room for one redneck in this 145-pound UFC trailer park,”

 

[BigNick100]

Yari?

Yair, Yari..same shit lol!

Yair has never faced a wrestler, never faced adversity, never been in a war for the most part or had to show heart.
His last 3 opponents -
B.J. Penn - who is way past his prime and has no business going against Yair.
Alex Caceres - who has a 12-10 record, and actually that fight was more competitive then people thought. He won a split, against 12-10 Caceres!!!
Andre Fili - who I think is his best win, but he also got caught with a right hand in the first that almost dropped him and Fili almost got a take down at the end of round 1 and if it wasn't for the cage I think he would have completed the take down.

I love Yair and his style but this is too much of a step up too soon I think.

Yair has a lot of holes still. Yair also leaves a lot of openings when he scrambles because he is so wild.

Yair has a kick heavy game, you think that will be smart against someone like Frankie that can push the pace and pressure Yair? If Yair decides to use more boxing then is going away from his strength.

My lean is on Frankie so far, hope the line gets even better and he becomes the dog.

 

[Jamah]

I dont think these are fake. But seriously. It's not alot of money. I had a quarter of that on Whittaker and i'm in Australia. Now imagine how many people around the world bet UFC. No fucking way he is solely responsible for line movement....

He doesn't move the lines because he makes 10k$ bets.
He moves the lines because he makes 10k$bets and because he has a ton of subscribers tailing his bets.
It's a fact

 

[Jamah]

I do think Knight will win but I can't see him subbing Skelly

Skelly's cardio sucks. I can see a late submission when Skelly is gassed