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UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Agreed. I think if Andrade wins it will most likely be by decision. Similarly JJ almost exclusively will win by decision. I am not knocking a play on Andrade as the dog here. However, if it gets close to a pick em again I will be on JJ.
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If you feel that way, you may want to consider a play on fight goes to decision which is currently at -105. Far superior to JJ's moneyline.
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Then why listen? This whole Luca Fury obsession is so weird. Why would you waste your time listening to him?
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My picks/ thoughts before studying
Stipe Miocic KO
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Decision/ Late tko.
Jorge Masvidal decision
Yair Rodriguez decision or Early Ko.
Henry Cejudo 30-27 Decision.
Eddie Alvarez Decision
Jason Knight 29-28 decision win or loss. Second round decides the fight imo.
Krzysztof Jotko decision because I like his DBZ tattoos. Branch is good though.
James Vick by sub which looks like a fluke after getting punched a little bit @Oblivian will say he's overrated afterwards jk
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Jessica Aguilar vs Cortney Casey? Casey may win by size so I'll take the over as it can go either way imo.
Enrique Barzola decision. He's the smaller guy but has more volume. He should've win his last fight.
Dmitry Poberezhets VS Chase Sherman?
Jared Gordon VS Michel Quinones? Gordon is an ex herione addict but is decent. Has powerful head kicks from what I've seen. Will have to watch more tape.
Only Bets I have right now is Stipe ML and Yair ML.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Decision/ Late tko.
Jorge Masvidal decision
Yair Rodriguez decision or Early Ko.
Henry Cejudo 30-27 Decision.
Eddie Alvarez Decision
Jason Knight 29-28 decision win or loss. Second round decides the fight imo.
Krzysztof Jotko decision because I like his DBZ tattoos. Branch is good though.
James Vick by sub which looks like a fluke after getting punched a little bit @Oblivian will say he's overrated afterwards jk
.Jessica Aguilar vs Cortney Casey? Casey may win by size so I'll take the over as it can go either way imo.
Enrique Barzola decision. He's the smaller guy but has more volume. He should've win his last fight.
Dmitry Poberezhets VS Chase Sherman?
Jared Gordon VS Michel Quinones? Gordon is an ex herione addict but is decent. Has powerful head kicks from what I've seen. Will have to watch more tape.
Only Bets I have right now is Stipe ML and Yair ML.
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What the fuck is up with that movement on JDS?!
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That's what I always find interesting. I don't know who half of these touts are when stuff about them gets posted. The only one I really know about is Luca since he's been around forever. I don't think I've ever listened to any of his podcasts nor read any of his articles if he writes them. I'm surprised so many people on here are familiar with all of these touts.
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similar to that idiot #Dizz, it's infuriating that somebody so clearly drunk on ego and delusion attains any sort of visibility in the online MMA community. When I'm doing ok emotionally I just laugh at these guys (Jon Snowden and Bloodstian Lane are others) but when I'm a little toxic I'll check their timelines to get that "hate-rush." I'm not saying that's healthy, just what's true in my case.
I really like Andrade here. Even if she didnt manage to beat Hill ITD, that fight proved that she has an excellent gas tank. Gadelha with better cardio would beat JJ even in a 5-rounder, so I dont think there's any reason to think Andrade cant.
Like already mentioned here, KK rocked her in the later rounds. Not sure if she can keep standing if Andrade manages to land in the first couple of rounds.
Like already mentioned here, KK rocked her in the later rounds. Not sure if she can keep standing if Andrade manages to land in the first couple of rounds.
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JDS +150 at sportsbook while Miocic is close to -110 at some books, easy freeroll if anyone got an account there
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Conor McGregor is "good for the sport"....oh wait were you talking about someone else?
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Still plenty more footage to watch and rewatch but current early opinions....
Benitez - Super confident, massive leg kicks to set up high kicks. Chance of a submission if he stuns Barzola on the feet like the Sicilia fight. Hopefully playable odds on Benitez ITD.
James Vick - Far more polished overall, cleaner striker. Think he can win the fight anywhere, can see him grabbing a neck at some point and getting another guillotine or D'arce.
Jotko - Better overall fighter and keeps improving, has the defensive grappling to keep it on the feet and win it there. Even if he does get taken down he has superb submission defence and positional ability. Probably takes a decision.
Skelly - Great exciting match up, one of the closest fights. I've counted Knight out before and it's come back to bite me but I'm going to side with Skelly here. He had the wrestling to interrupt Knight's forward pressure barrage of strikes, previous opponents without that offensive wrestling ability have found themselves drawn into a brawl. There is a worry that Knight's relentless pressure and constant sub attempts cause Skelly to gas and he takes advantage. I only give Skelly the slight advantage and may very well likely stay clear of either and play the over.
Poirier - Depends how Alvarez looks after McGregor. Poirier has decent boxing, dirty boxing and could stun Alvarez. Plus he has solid TDD, wouldn't count Alvarez out by any means but I like Poirier here.
Cejudo - Controls his way to a decision. Pettis has an active sweep and sub game but won't be enough once he's on his back, doubt he can keep it standing long enough to make it count. Poor odds for Cejudo, might play his decision line instead but can't imagine it'll be too appealing either.
Rodriguez - Frankie is aging, albeit still good. Rodriguez is the next big thing. Edgar got caught clean by a Stephens kick and I see Rodriguez landing heavy kicks and finishing him, love his ML, will definitely play it.
Maia - Love Masvidal, been a fan since Bodog, picked him to beat Cerrone. But Maia will secure bodylock takedowns and control him. Masvidal has the clear advantage on the feet and is crafty on the mat too with good scrambling ability. Maia is next level though, his chain wrestling is fantastic and I see Maia tangling him up and subbing him late in the 2nd or 3rd.
Jedrezejczyk - Takes a decision, maybe caught a few times along the way. She's the far more polished striker, good TDD and tested over 5 rounds. Andrade dominated Hill and didn't look gassed despite her high output but this isn't Angela Hill, Andrade is a solid fighter but I just don't see her winning.
JDS - Probably plays out similar to the first fight, he has great recovery but I wouldn't be shocked if Miocic got put away by JDS. He has more power in punches and Miocic will struggle to secure takedowns on him.
Benitez - Super confident, massive leg kicks to set up high kicks. Chance of a submission if he stuns Barzola on the feet like the Sicilia fight. Hopefully playable odds on Benitez ITD.
James Vick - Far more polished overall, cleaner striker. Think he can win the fight anywhere, can see him grabbing a neck at some point and getting another guillotine or D'arce.
Jotko - Better overall fighter and keeps improving, has the defensive grappling to keep it on the feet and win it there. Even if he does get taken down he has superb submission defence and positional ability. Probably takes a decision.
Skelly - Great exciting match up, one of the closest fights. I've counted Knight out before and it's come back to bite me but I'm going to side with Skelly here. He had the wrestling to interrupt Knight's forward pressure barrage of strikes, previous opponents without that offensive wrestling ability have found themselves drawn into a brawl. There is a worry that Knight's relentless pressure and constant sub attempts cause Skelly to gas and he takes advantage. I only give Skelly the slight advantage and may very well likely stay clear of either and play the over.
Poirier - Depends how Alvarez looks after McGregor. Poirier has decent boxing, dirty boxing and could stun Alvarez. Plus he has solid TDD, wouldn't count Alvarez out by any means but I like Poirier here.
Cejudo - Controls his way to a decision. Pettis has an active sweep and sub game but won't be enough once he's on his back, doubt he can keep it standing long enough to make it count. Poor odds for Cejudo, might play his decision line instead but can't imagine it'll be too appealing either.
Rodriguez - Frankie is aging, albeit still good. Rodriguez is the next big thing. Edgar got caught clean by a Stephens kick and I see Rodriguez landing heavy kicks and finishing him, love his ML, will definitely play it.
Maia - Love Masvidal, been a fan since Bodog, picked him to beat Cerrone. But Maia will secure bodylock takedowns and control him. Masvidal has the clear advantage on the feet and is crafty on the mat too with good scrambling ability. Maia is next level though, his chain wrestling is fantastic and I see Maia tangling him up and subbing him late in the 2nd or 3rd.
Jedrezejczyk - Takes a decision, maybe caught a few times along the way. She's the far more polished striker, good TDD and tested over 5 rounds. Andrade dominated Hill and didn't look gassed despite her high output but this isn't Angela Hill, Andrade is a solid fighter but I just don't see her winning.
JDS - Probably plays out similar to the first fight, he has great recovery but I wouldn't be shocked if Miocic got put away by JDS. He has more power in punches and Miocic will struggle to secure takedowns on him.
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He moves the lines A LOT with his bets
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luca bet him
say what you want about the guy but when he bets and touts lines, they move drastically.
As an #elite bettor I take advantage of this fact by fading him when his bet is retarded. Case in point, Dodson/Wineland over last week.
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This is a massive move. Highly doubt he has that sort of influence
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He bets thousands of dollars, and he has a lot of subscribers. He has that sort of influence
I listened to his podcast and he picked JDS.
Last Event he bet the Under 2.5 rounds in the Dodson fight and he moved the line from +100 to -200
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that's what I used to think. How could 1 person influence the line so much?
But remember, MMA is a niche betting sport. Also, the proof is in the pudding. He consistently bets lines and they consistently swing drastically. There's too much evidence for me to refute it now.
Off the top of my head, examples are dodson under last week, JDS now, Bektic/Elliot, (Dusquenoy Williams??)and the Marshman Santos under. All within the last 2 months. Theres many more i just cant remember.
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