UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[OneWarrior1]

Just watched cerrone Eddie. Eddie was winning until the leg kicks accumulated and his one eye closed shut. Eddie would clinch cerrone against the cage when he came close but couldn't complete the TD. This is expected since cowboy has superb tdd. Conor? Not so much. I think Eddie would do this if Connor came close with his forward pressure. However, I saw Connor keep distance against Mendes with kicks and his hands low ready to defend tds when at the center of the cage. It wasn't until Connor cornered Mendes against th cage he'd start throwing. But if this happens, Eddie will clinch. I still favor Eddie here. He has better cardio, heart, durable especially with his chin, experience, and more ways to win. I have no doubt Eddie will clinch with Conor against the cage and take him down. If he gets tagged by Conor, he has the chin, durability and recovery. Mendes was tagging Conor in the standup and I'm sure Eddie could do better than Mendes. I this is with conors reach advantage.

 

[piglord]

i like tim kennedy here but dislike the price. probably won't touch it.

 

[mkess101]

i like tim kennedy here but dislike the price. probably won't touch it.

I think that's kind of the consensus here from what I've read (and it's what I think too). Books seem to have it about right. Long layoff for Kennedy but Rashad is done. All of it priced in and not much value at all. Probably play one little prop for .2u or something and move on LOL.

 

[mkess101]

Just watched cerrone Eddie. Eddie was winning until the leg kicks accumulated and his one eye closed shut. Eddie would clinch cerrone against the cage when he came close but couldn't complete the TD. This is expected since cowboy has superb tdd. Conor? Not so much. I think Eddie would do this if Connor came close with his forward pressure. However, I saw Connor keep distance against Mendes with kicks and his hands low ready to defend tds when at the center of the cage. It wasn't until Connor cornered Mendes against th cage he'd start throwing. But if this happens, Eddie will clinch. I still favor Eddie here. He has better cardio, heart, durable especially with his chin, experience, and more ways to win. I have no doubt Eddie will clinch with Conor against the cage and take him down. If he gets tagged by Conor, he has the chin, durability and recovery. Mendes was tagging Conor in the standup and I'm sure Eddie could do better than Mendes. I this is with conors reach advantage.

If Eddie is scoring TD's early AND is actually able to hold Conor down for long stretches in the first and second rounds I'll be looking to live bet Eddie for sure. Or if like you said he's able to implement the clinching, wall n stall tactics he used vs Pettis. That could sap Conor's energy and take some of the sting off Conor's strikes in the later rounds. Eddie's price will drop most likely from where it is if he's having success but he could still be worth it at that point.

I'm sticking by Conor early or Eddie late/dec in that order as my most likely outcomes.

 

[vkram]

If Eddie is scoring TD's early AND is actually able to hold Conor down for long stretches in the first and second rounds I'll be looking to live bet Eddie for sure. Or if like you said he's able to implement the clinching, wall n stall tactics he used vs Pettis. That could sap Conor's energy and take some of the sting off Conor's strikes in the later rounds. Eddie's price will drop most likely from where it is if he's having success but he could still be worth it at that point.

I'm sticking by Conor early or Eddie late/dec in that order as my most likely outcomes.

Your strategy makes sense but if Eddie wins the the first round or two then he will be about -300/-500 IMO. Maybe livebet Eddie ITD if you see Conor getting tired?

 

[EzFlyer]

Am I crazy for liking the odds on Rashad here?

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-205-conor-vs-alvarez-ny.3357821/page-3#post-122264677

Nope, you're not. It's definitely dog or pass.

 

[quincy k]

Am I crazy for liking the odds on Rashad here?

no. evans hasnt taken much punishment in his career, injuries aside, and he and tim are both coming off ko losses. rashad also wrestled 174 in college so there is a very good chance that the cut wont affect him in a three round fight and that he has been undersized fighting out of his weight class.

if this goes the way of grappling this could be a pick em

 

[LEMONZEST]

If Eddie is scoring TD's early AND is actually able to hold Conor down for long stretches in the first and second rounds I'll be looking to live bet Eddie for sure. Or if like you said he's able to implement the clinching, wall n stall tactics he used vs Pettis. That could sap Conor's energy and take some of the sting off Conor's strikes in the later rounds. Eddie's price will drop most likely from where it is if he's having success but he could still be worth it at that point.

I'm sticking by Conor early or Eddie late/dec in that order as my most likely outcomes.

I honestly think an early KO is likely going both ways... Eddie just KO'd RDA which isn't a small feat. From a psychological point of view it is interesting as Eddie stated his fear of dangerous opponents causes him to be aggressive (or something to that effect). Yes, Conor is always aggressive early but it goes without saying the anytime you strike aggressively you also leave yourself open to being hit. If they do start swinging I favour Conor but an early KO by Eddie would not shock me that much.

I do expect wall and stall fromEddie tho.

 

[iGnP]

If Eddie is scoring TD's early AND is actually able to hold Conor down for long stretches in the first and second rounds I'll be looking to live bet Eddie for sure. Or if like you said he's able to implement the clinching, wall n stall tactics he used vs Pettis. That could sap Conor's energy and take some of the sting off Conor's strikes in the later rounds. Eddie's price will drop most likely from where it is if he's having success but he could still be worth it at that point.

I'm sticking by Conor early or Eddie late/dec in that order as my most likely outcomes.

just playing devil's advocate here, but if Eddie takes Conor down and holds him down for the first two rounds, he's probably gonna win those rounds. Then why would you live bet Eddie (at prob terrible odds)?

 

[BigNick100]

My insight on Conor/Eddie:

First all, I'm a huge Conor fan. Not a bandwagon fan but someone who saw his first ufc prelim fight live against Marcus Brimage and told people that guy has skills. I was also someone who decided to finally make a sherdog account and in my first post I said Conor was going to beat Diaz in the rematch by TKO/KO or use leg kicks to get a DEC and I was blasted here.

I think this is a dangerous dangerous fight for Conor. I think Eddie will use the clich/wall n stall/take down approach. Why will Eddie want to stand with Conor and play into Conor's hands when he has a advantage on the ground? I saw a interview with Eddie long before he beat Dos Anjos and he said people fighting Conor always play into his hands and they don't use their grappling and takedowns. No doubt Eddie is going to use this approach and try to either get Conor on his back to try and pass his guard and ground and pound or win a decision. He wants to make this a grind it out/boring type of fight. I'm ruling out Eddie knocking out Conor because I don't think Eddie will want to stand in front of Conor for long, only use his punches to set up his takedowns.

Now of course Conor can land that KO. His best chance is in the first round IMO. I feel while Eddie is a beast, I think he has slowed down a little bit since his Bellator days. Eddie has been known to be hit in some fights and all it takes it that one punch from Conor. Conor also has 5 inches reach advantage going for him. I don't think I am even going to bet on this fight because I want to soak it all in with it being in MSG as well. I really hope I am fucking wrong but I see this fight going like Conor vs Mendes round 1 but for 5 rounds. I say %60 Eddie wins to Conor's %40.

If I had to bet I would say Eddie by decision and hedge Conor by KO. or vice versa if you think Conor will win.

 

[mkess101]

just playing devil's advocate here, but if Eddie takes Conor down and holds him down for the first two rounds, he's probably gonna win those rounds. Then why would you live bet Eddie (at prob terrible odds)?

Do you never live bet guys that are winning even at - odds?

I think Connor gets Eddie out of there inside 2 rounds. But if he doesn't, I think Eddie's chances of winning increase dramatically, maybe even more than what the live betting odds will show. Maybe it's 2 close rounds or it looks like it should be 1-1 after 2 rounds but Eddie is really making Conor use a lot of energy.

Maybe Eddie is -150 at that point. Maybe he's +110. Maybe somewhere in between. Obviously need to see how it plays out but if the odds are right Eddie could potentially be a gold mine there, even as a favorite if Conor looks to be tiring.

 

[mkess101]

Your strategy makes sense but if Eddie wins the the first round or two then he will be about -300/-500 IMO. Maybe livebet Eddie ITD if you see Conor getting tired?

If the rounds are competitive at all there's zero chance Eddie will be that steep a favorite. Eddie would have to straight up dominate and really hurt Conor to be that much a favorite.

 

[iGnP]

Do you never live bet guys that are winning even at - odds?

I think Connor gets Eddie out of there inside 2 rounds. But if he doesn't, I think Eddie's chances of winning increase dramatically, maybe even more than what the live betting odds will show. Maybe it's 2 close rounds or it looks like it should be 1-1 after 2 rounds but Eddie is really making Conor use a lot of energy.

Maybe Eddie is -150 at that point. Maybe he's +110. Maybe somewhere in between. Obviously need to see how it plays out but if the odds are right Eddie could potentially be a gold mine there, even as a favorite if Conor looks to be tiring.

To your question, no, I don't generally live bet guys up two rounds at - odds unless the guy he's facing isn't a finisher (def not the case w Conor)

 

[vkram]

If the rounds are competitive at all there's zero chance Eddie will be that steep a favorite. Eddie would have to straight up dominate and really hurt Conor to be that much a favorite.

I don't really see it going 2 or so rounds and being competitive. I think if Conor keeps it standing then he finishes Eddie or at least hurts him early on. The other scenario is Eddie grinding Conor and maybe taking him down like Mendes. Its quite rare that a fight goes 2 rounds and the odds stay close.

 

[mkess101]

To your question, no, I don't generally live bet guys up two rounds at - odds unless the guy he's facing isn't a finisher (def not the case w Conor)

Interesting. I'm not saying I specifically look to do it but nor do I avoid it. I really try to look at everything as its own separate event.

Specifically, in this case I agree Conor is a finisher. But generally when he does he's getting guys out of there early. Add to that I'm looking for specific signs that Conor's ability to finish or even to win rounds has been negatively affected by what's taken place in the first two rounds in my view. Then of course (as always) making sure the odds show value regardless of what they are relative to what I view the chances either guy wins.

Eddie dominates two rounds but Conor looks fresh and Eddie is -275? Pass or small on Conor probably.

Fight is most likely 1-1 or MAYBE Eddie 2-0 and he's really grinding Conor and it looks like Conor is visibly breathing heavy (like after rd 1 in the first fight with Nate) and Eddie is -150? Hell yes I'll bet him.

 

[mkess101]

I don't really see it going 2 or so rounds and being competitive. I think if Conor keeps it standing then he finishes Eddie or at least hurts him early on. The other scenario is Eddie grinding Conor and maybe taking him down like Mendes. Its quite rare that a fight goes 2 rounds and the odds stay close.

Not really from what I've seen. I understand your point in this specific fight, but we could see Conor dominate a standup rd 1 but not land that killshot (and of course Eddie has a hell of a chin) but Eddie take Conor down or wall n stall him rd 2 and the fight is 1-1. Or other way around with the rds. Or Conor dominates standing for half a round but then gets taken down and controlled and Eddie lands some gnp.

There's a shit ton of ways this fight is close to even after 2 rds. I'm not saying it's the MOST likely scenario, but it's not super unlikely either.

 

[vkram]

Not really from what I've seen. I understand your point in this specific fight, but we could see Conor dominate a standup rd 1 but not land that killshot (and of course Eddie has a hell of a chin) but Eddie take Conor down or wall n stall him rd 2 and the fight is 1-1. Or other way around with the rds. Or Conor dominates standing for half a round but then gets taken down and controlled and Eddie lands some gnp.

There's a shit ton of ways this fight is close to even after 2 rds. I'm not saying it's the MOST likely scenario, but it's not super unlikely either.

Yeah I see your point. I'm interested to see how Conor's cardio looks like at LW if it goes longer than 2 rounds.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I see your point. I'm interested to see how Conor's cardio looks like at LW if it goes longer than 2 rounds.

Me too. It honestly could be the best Conor we've seen. Not trying to kill himself with the cut but also forced to work really hard to be in prime shape.

 

[cCrown]

Surprising interview from cejudo. I was expecting him to side with alvarez considering his own wrestling pedigree.

 

[PuertoRican]

Surprising interview from cejudo. I was expecting him to side with alvarez considering his own wrestling pedigree.

Probably cuz he knows that Eddie isn't an elite wrestler and gets hit a lot.