UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[Brick Top]

I find it weird that Stephen Thompson is -200 as the challenger. I think he's overly juiced and there's no value in that whatsoever. -110 would've been a fair price on either side to be honest, and maybe then I would've played Wonderboy and I still wouldn't be confident in the pick.

I think when WB beat Hendricks people overreacted into thinking Wonderboy will eat up any wrestler which isn't true. Hendricks =/= Woodley. The two are different in fighting stances. Hendricks fights right foot forward was known for his big left hand and Tyron fights left foot forward is known for his big right. Different problems that needs different solutions for WB is all I'm sayin.

Now there's some good evidence with WB beating Rory that he can handle all types but Rory was a lil different too compared to Tyron. Rory has great wrestling himself but he isn't the same as Tyron in his approach. Rory was super strong and he had great reactive TDs but Rory's pride was his jab and he works everything off of it. Tyron rarely throws out his jab and he's pretty much all about that monster right hand. A fight that Tyron wins is a fight that he's able to get close enough to box and clinch when he needs to.

We honestly can't ignore Jake Ellenberger dropping WB. That happened because WB keeps his hands down and Jake feinted his way into the pocket with a 1-1-2 which Tyron is capable of executing too. Jake paused in between throwing the 2, in which Wonderboy fired off a left handed counter but Jake ate the punch and found himself in position to land that right hand. A very dangerous proposition for either guy if they make a error in either the form of a homerun hitter for Woodley, or Woodley running into a critical counter if he isn't careful.!

With all that said, with every fight, Stephen is getting more comfortable with experience and his game is SO god damn complicated that I can't really grasp what he's fully capable of. Thompson owns da range game and Tyron's gotten better with his leg kicks over the years but they've gotta be inside leg kicks against a southpaw. A fight that WB is winning is a fight that's dictated exclusively on the outside, and using counters/footwork when Tyron enters into range.

This is an extremely difficult fight to break down and I'm sure as hell leaving out a fuck load of other details but it's really hard fight to analyze. I didn't even mention that Stephen knows how to switch stances too. That just means this is a sick ass high level fight.

Final verdict: picking Wonderboy, but I ain't payin that juice with my money. I will say this, that first round will tell us everything we need to know because of the contrast in which range each respective fighter operates in (that includes the horizontal one if WB's on his back).

Not a fookin chance I'm laying the juice on WB especially that price.

1) He's hittable
2) Woodley is the hardest hitter he's fought
3) Woodley is the best wrestler he's fought (Hendricks has been a shell of his former self for years)

Should be about even

 

[Brick Top]

Like Joseph said, he was sick vs Sanchez. Hes looked much better since...

No one talking about alves' long layoff(s) and inactivity, his first cut to 155, etc, either.

I have a unit alrdy on miller.. almost certainly doing a second

Well he has/had Lymes disease. Has he said it's cured?

 

[quincy k]

I know people hate math here but I think it has to factor into a breakdown of a fight, at least somewhat.

Rory schooled Tyron.
WB schooled Rory.

Of course, Tyron could connect and finish WB. I really don't think he does. You say we don't know how much Tyron has improved...but what about WB? I would think his ceiling is higher actually.

rory was coming off the brutal lawler war. i wouldnt compare the mcdonald that fought thompson to the one that fought woodley

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

Wonder Boy gonna make this look easy, Woodley got a punchers chance and that's it. My opinion of Woodley hasn't really changed even though he beat Lawler. People put too much stock into a fighters most recent performance and seem to forget everything else.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I like Wonderboy too here, he's gotta stay cautious for the first couple of rds but after that Woodley will slow down and I think that's when Thompson finds his range and starts landing the big shots that imo will probably get Twood out of there. that being said Woodley always has that speed and power to put anyone's lights out so again I put the emphasis on Thompson treading carefully in the early going unless he sees a counter or something that he can't pass up.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Well he has/had Lymes disease. Has he said it's cured?

Yeah, he was cured for Lauzon fight.

 

[t6p]

I put down half a unit on Muhammad no scorecards at +113. Good is coming off a 16 month injury layoff and while he does have quite a few finishes, a lot of them were against lower teir competition. Muhammad has looked extremely durable and he's coming off a TKO of Montano, who had never been finished. I think this fight goes to decision more times than not, but I favor Muhammad and I think it's unlikely that he gets finished.

 

[vkram]

I put down half a unit on Muhammad no scorecards at +113. Good is coming off a 16 month injury layoff and while he does have quite a few finishes, a lot of them were against lower teir competition. Muhammad has looked extremely durable and he's coming off a TKO of Montano, who had never been finished. I think this fight goes to decision more times than not, but I favor Muhammad and I think it's unlikely that he gets finished.

Belal isn't much of a finisher in 3 round fights, he tends to wear you out and break you down. I think Montano was really tired at the end and that contributed to the finish. Although Belal is super tough and I don't see him getting finished either.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Not that I know of. Maybe you're referring to him fighting Diego with lyme disease?

Yes this is it. I think he has it kinda under control but this is chronic no?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Wonder Boy gonna make this look easy, Woodley got a punchers chance and that's it. My opinion of Woodley hasn't really changed even though he beat Lawler. People put too much stock into a fighters most recent performance and seem to forget everything else.

It's not that easy.. if it was he wouldn't have to follow a game plan. He still needs to show up and do his job. There are elements in this fight that he doesn't have the advantage in.

Woodley cannot have just a punchers chance? How can you disrespect his wrestling like that? You're entirely overlooking Woodley if your opinion hasn't changed for that Lawler fight. He made Lawler flinch and he faked him out for that KO. That was not a lucky punch it was designed to land. A very similar combo that Jake Ellenberger landed when he got inside boxing range on Stephen.

An easy fight would be Joanna over Karolina. At this point Joanna's grappling has far exceeded her opponent's and she doesn't really even need to worry about the ground aspect. And the fact that Karolina doesn't even carry much power. There doesn't need to be much discussion in terms of value when she's -400.

 

[t6p]

Belal isn't much of a finisher in 3 round fights, he tends to wear you out and break you down. I think Montano was really tired at the end and that contributed to the finish. Although Belal is super tough and I don't see him getting finished either.

Yea I agree. I could see Belal losing a decision but out of the two I feel like he's more likely to get the finish so I saw some value at + money.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Yes this is it. I think he has it kinda under control but this is chronic no?

No idea if its chronic, but he looked the best he has in awhile vs Lauzon.

To add to the WB-Tyron discussion, I think an overlooked factor is Woodley can take away range A LOT faster than anyone WB has ever faced. His explosiveness in covering distance has always been good, and it was downright terrifying in the Lawler fight. If plodding Ellenberger can tag WB when he has nowhere near the explosiveness to change the spacing, its not going to shock me if Woodley can drop him.

 

[t6p]

No idea if its chronic, but he looked the best he has in awhile vs Lauzon.

To add to the WB-Tyron discussion, I think an overlooked factor is Woodley can take away range A LOT faster than anyone WB has ever faced. His explosiveness in covering distance has always been good, and it was downright terrifying in the Lawler fight. If plodding Ellenberger can tag WB when he has nowhere near the explosiveness to change the spacing, its not going to shock me if Woodley can drop him.

That's pretty much the point I was trying to make earlier in ITT. I think the fight is close to a toss up and a lot of people are underrating Woodley.

 

[LEMONZEST]

No idea if its chronic, but he looked the best he has in awhile vs Lauzon.

To add to the WB-Tyron discussion, I think an overlooked factor is Woodley can take away range A LOT faster than anyone WB has ever faced. His explosiveness in covering distance has always been good, and it was downright terrifying in the Lawler fight. If plodding Ellenberger can tag WB when he has nowhere near the explosiveness to change the spacing, its not going to shock me if Woodley can drop him.

This is what I think too. I love WB and think he is a class above the rest....However, I won't be surprised if T-wood lands and its over.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

It's not that easy.. if it was he wouldn't have to follow a game plan. He still needs to show up and do his job. There are elements in this fight that he doesn't have the advantage in.

Woodley cannot have just a punchers chance? How can you disrespect his wrestling like that? You're entirely overlooking Woodley if your opinion hasn't changed for that Lawler fight. He made Lawler flinch and he faked him out for that KO. That was not a lucky punch it was designed to land. A very similar combo that Jake Ellenberger landed when he got inside boxing range on Stephen.

An easy fight would be Joanna over Karolina. At this point Joanna's grappling has far exceeded her opponent's and she doesn't really even need to worry about the ground aspect. And the fact that Karolina doesn't even carry much power. There doesn't need to be much discussion in terms of value when she's -400.

It really is as simple as I said it was, Wonderboy's TDD so good now that I don't think Woodley's wrestling will be much of a factor. He can't outstrike Wonderboy and win rounds, he needs to win by KO and that's a hard thing to pull off when you're facing a striker like WB. I really can't take much away from the Lawler fight and the outcome didn't really surprise me. He could do the same thing to WB but it's not likely. WB is going to clown him. I parlayed him with JJ at +110.

 

[Sham5916910]

It really is as simple as I said it was, Wonderboy's TDD so good now that I don't think Woodley's wrestling will be much of a factor. He can't outstrike Wonderboy and win rounds, he needs to win by KO and that's a hard thing to pull off when you're facing a striker like WB. I really can't take much away from the Lawler fight and the outcome didn't really surprise me. He could do the same thing to WB but it's not likely. WB is going to clown him. I parlayed him with JJ at +110.

Same parlay im probably taking.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[SBJJ]

It's not that easy.. if it was he wouldn't have to follow a game plan. He still needs to show up and do his job. There are elements in this fight that he doesn't have the advantage in.

Woodley cannot have just a punchers chance? How can you disrespect his wrestling like that? You're entirely overlooking Woodley if your opinion hasn't changed for that Lawler fight. He made Lawler flinch and he faked him out for that KO. That was not a lucky punch it was designed to land. A very similar combo that Jake Ellenberger landed when he got inside boxing range on Stephen.

An easy fight would be Joanna over Karolina. At this point Joanna's grappling has far exceeded her opponent's and she doesn't really even need to worry about the ground aspect. And the fact that Karolina doesn't even carry much power. There doesn't need to be much discussion in terms of value when she's -400.

Way to much emphasis on a flash Kd by Berger. It happens. Shane Fucking Mosley wobbled Floyd Maywether but that didn't mean every puncher should be even money against mayweather after. Wonderboy is just that DAMN GOOD. And all this Rory was shot talk has no basis in fact. He fought a damn good fight, but WB was just to much.

Also, look for Wonderboy to actually win the wrestling if it goes past 8 minutes

 

[Soccer Steve]

It really is as simple as I said it was, Wonderboy's TDD so good now that I don't think Woodley's wrestling will be much of a factor. He can't outstrike Wonderboy and win rounds, he needs to win by KO and that's a hard thing to pull off when you're facing a striker like WB. I really can't take much away from the Lawler fight and the outcome didn't really surprise me. He could do the same thing to WB but it's not likely. WB is going to clown him. I parlayed him with JJ at +110.

I've done the exact same play too, big as well. Unfortunately, I lack your confidence.

So excited for this card.

 

[SBJJ]

That's pretty much the point I was trying to make earlier in ITT. I think the fight is close to a toss up and a lot of people are underrating Woodley.

What do u think the line would be if the lawler fight never happened?