I find it weird that Stephen Thompson is -200 as the challenger. I think he's overly juiced and there's no value in that whatsoever. -110 would've been a fair price on either side to be honest, and maybe then I would've played Wonderboy and I still wouldn't be confident in the pick.
I think when WB beat Hendricks people overreacted into thinking Wonderboy will eat up any wrestler which isn't true. Hendricks =/= Woodley. The two are different in fighting stances. Hendricks fights right foot forward was known for his big left hand and Tyron fights left foot forward is known for his big right. Different problems that needs different solutions for WB is all I'm sayin.
Now there's some good evidence with WB beating Rory that he can handle all types but Rory was a lil different too compared to Tyron. Rory has great wrestling himself but he isn't the same as Tyron in his approach. Rory was super strong and he had great reactive TDs but Rory's pride was his jab and he works everything off of it. Tyron rarely throws out his jab and he's pretty much all about that monster right hand. A fight that Tyron wins is a fight that he's able to get close enough to box and clinch when he needs to.
We honestly can't ignore Jake Ellenberger dropping WB. That happened because WB keeps his hands down and Jake feinted his way into the pocket with a 1-1-2 which Tyron is capable of executing too. Jake paused in between throwing the 2, in which Wonderboy fired off a left handed counter but Jake ate the punch and found himself in position to land that right hand. A very dangerous proposition for either guy if they make a error in either the form of a homerun hitter for Woodley, or Woodley running into a critical counter if he isn't careful.!
With all that said, with every fight, Stephen is getting more comfortable with experience and his game is SO god damn complicated that I can't really grasp what he's fully capable of. Thompson owns da range game and Tyron's gotten better with his leg kicks over the years but they've gotta be inside leg kicks against a southpaw. A fight that WB is winning is a fight that's dictated exclusively on the outside, and using counters/footwork when Tyron enters into range.
This is an extremely difficult fight to break down and I'm sure as hell leaving out a fuck load of other details but it's really hard fight to analyze. I didn't even mention that Stephen knows how to switch stances too. That just means this is a sick ass high level fight.
Final verdict: picking Wonderboy, but I ain't payin that juice with my money. I will say this, that first round will tell us everything we need to know because of the contrast in which range each respective fighter operates in (that includes the horizontal one if WB's on his back).
