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UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

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I love this dude big time but I think he's been hitting the ganja just a leeeeeetle bit too hard the past few fights. Here he picks both Santos and, inexplicably, Vitor. At least he justifies his Belfort pick by explaining that his brain simply can't process picking against Vitor. I get that, I'm the same way with the Seahawks. I can't possibly bet them objectively. But he does seem to be phoning these in the past few weeks. Still he's my fave of the youtube fight betting analysts because he's the only on who seems like a person i'd hang with in real life and not an MRA douche.
what is an MRA douche?
 
I think it's funny to pick Vitor, he's the most likely fighter to lose on the card IMO.

The guy was very caviler when he said it so I think he was joking but who cares what some guy on youtube thinks. He also constantly gets facts wrong when breaking down fights but he's still better than most ufc predictions youtube people. Bookie Beatdown is the only show I like listening to when it comes to predictions/betting.

Oh and I can't forget my man Lou from Gamblou.com, always appreciate his expert analysis, high level capper.
Gamblou is a fraud and I'm like 10% sure he might be a bit retarded too
 
I love this dude big time but I think he's been hitting the ganja just a leeeeeetle bit too hard the past few fights. Here he picks both Santos and, inexplicably, Vitor. At least he justifies his Belfort pick by explaining that his brain simply can't process picking against Vitor. I get that, I'm the same way with the Seahawks. I can't possibly bet them objectively. But he does seem to be phoning these in the past few weeks. Still he's my fave of the youtube fight betting analysts because he's the only on who seems like a person i'd hang with in real life and not an MRA douche.
I just don't see the point in bothering making videos if you're just going to half ass it and make stupid picks
 
Gamblou is a fraud and I'm like 10% sure he might be a bit retarded too
He is one of the worst MMA cappers out there and MMA meltdown is maybe the worst show I have ever seen. They have blood streaming down the screen on the intro and Morency seems like a cokehead, I watch everyweek, mainly for comedic value.
 
The only thing more entertaining than watching or listening to these popular MMA breakdown and betting podcasts is reading some of you guys' colorful and strongly held opinions about them, lol.
 
He is one of the worst MMA cappers out there and MMA meltdown is maybe the worst show I have ever seen. They have blood streaming down the screen on the intro and Morency seems like a cokehead, I watch everyweek, mainly for comedic value.
I've got to admit it is hilarious to watch sometimes, but the REAL hilarity is on their twitter accounts

For example, on Tupac's birthday Gamblou started randomly tweeting lyrics all day from his songs, such as "well are you still down n word? Holla when you see me"

He's like 60. And white.

I don't know why but that was just hilarious to me. Gamblou has got a weird Barry vibe to him and Gabe is just... strange?
 
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I am betting bisping/hendo ITD. Much safer play IMO as I think bisping wins, but the H-Bomb is ALWAYS there. I seriously doubt this goes the distance so you get both options. -280 itd to -235 on bisping. i will take the -280 itd all day and feel safe that the H-Bomb doesnt ruin my night.

Fight ends in KO/TKO is -185 on Unibet
 
Other than the line being off, why does everyone love the o1.5 for osp manuwa? Osp has power in his punches and is deceptive
 
I've got to admit it is hilarious to watch sometimes, but the REAL hilarity is on their twitter accounts

For example, on Tupac's birthday Gamblou started randomly tweeting lyrics all day from his songs, such as "well are you still down n word? Holla when you see me"

He's like 60. And white.

I don't know why but that was just hilarious to me. Gamblou has got a weird Barry vibe to him and Gabe is just... strange?

Lol that is actually hilarious

Gonna follow this fuck now
 
Russell Doane in for Allen/Kennedy to fight Bektic.
 
took moose sub +1000 and Osp sub +1150


both guys have the advantage on the ground
 
Bisping throwing kicks with poor balance and doing planks with shit form in the embedded show. Is there a KO coming in boys
 
I love this dude big time but I think he's been hitting the ganja just a leeeeeetle bit too hard the past few fights. Here he picks both Santos and, inexplicably, Vitor. At least he justifies his Belfort pick by explaining that his brain simply can't process picking against Vitor. I get that, I'm the same way with the Seahawks. I can't possibly bet them objectively. But he does seem to be phoning these in the past few weeks. Still he's my fave of the youtube fight betting analysts because he's the only on who seems like a person i'd hang with in real life and not an MRA douche.

Who gives a fuck about if you would hang out with them IRL or not, if you're looking for data / opinion /picks on figths?

No offense, but that seems like a really counterproductive way to look at things
 
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-204-betting-odds/

Omielanczuk isn’t a big hitter, but he’ll likely need to put Struve away to win this fight. If Omielanczuk was able to keep this fight on the feet for 15 minutes, he could win as well, but his proclivity for falling into the clinch could prove troublesome in that pursuit. Struve’s height makes him a surprisingly effective (and underrated) wrestler from that position, and Omielanczuk has weak takedown defense to begin with. If this turns into a grappling match, Struve has the advantage, so Omielanczuk needs to stay at range against a much longer fighter for 15 minutes without falling into the clinch. That’s a lot to ask for any heavyweight.

If we’re continuing the trend of being honest, Pickett has lost his last four fights. He’s had a couple of bright moments during that span, but he’s generally shown the same poor defense as always, which has been exacerbated by his physical decline. Pickett may be able fall back on his wrestling here — as he is one of the very few British fighters who you wouldn’t know is British by watching him wrestle — as Alcantara can be lazy about his defense, but I have to think the dynamic game of the Brazilian gets through on the feet enough to take a decision. Pickett has been known to get some bad decisions though, and at home that could be a factor.

Entwistle gets the leg lock early or quits and loses. Although anyone can get caught by a leg lock, Font should be good enough to avoid it. He wins. By stoppage. That said, I could see this being the spot where everyone just looks at Entwistle as the one-dimensional leg lock guy and bets up his opponent way too high and then Font potentially gets caught.

Grant and Stasiak could put on a fun grappling battle, or a really bad striking battle. I don’t think either fighter truly has the desire or skill set to keep this on the feet should the other pursue a takedown. Once they hit the ground, I think the fight is evenly matched, although I found it surprising that Grant wasn’t able to have more success on the ground against Marlon Vera than he did. I expect Grant to be a bit overpriced here, but I’m not sure I’m ready to pull the trigger on Stasiak.

One of the best bouts on the card, Edwards and Tumenov should be the exact opposite of Grant and Stasiak. Both have struggled when they’ve faced grapplers but beaten anyone willing to strike with them. Tumenov has the higher level competition and wins, but Edwards could give him trouble as a slightly longer southpaw. In the end, I think that Tumenov is more used to fighting dangerous strikers and at a higher pace, which should lead him to victory. However, Edwards does have more one-punch power out of the two, which could equalize things.

At some point, Perry is going to struggle with a really technical fighter, but I don’t think Roberts is it. That’s not to say Roberts can’t win this fight. He’s a big hitter and has a sneaky submission game, but I feel like Perry can lure him into a slugfest on the feet. If that’s the case, I’ve seen Perry do more damage in a short period of time, while Roberts has looked quite hittable in some of his fights. Perry would be a play if I could get him in the +140 or higher range, but I won’t bother around even money as I do think Roberts is the more skilled overall fighter.

Santos is a guy that I picked (and bet) against versus Efrain Escudero, and almost won, and yet somehow he’s still undefeated in the UFC. It absolutely blows my mind that those two things can exist within the same fighter. Hopefully that undefeated UFC record means we can get a discount on Martins against him, because this has to be the time Santos gets beaten, right? Perhaps Santos has a slight advantage in pure BJJ, but Martins is no slouch and a vastly superior wrestler here, so I think that negates even the slightest path to victory for Santos. It’s getting hard to bet against this guy, but on the other hand, Martins has been a money train in the UFC, so I have no problem backing him once again if the number isn’t too high.

Through two fights, it seems to me that Sajewski is tough, but simply not quite athletic or skilled enough to compete at the UFC level. It’s hard to speak for the skill at this point, but Diakiese is definitely athletic and explosive enough to compete in the UFC, but he’s also been able to show an ability to manage his cardio in the past if need be, and even grind some opponents out. Sajewski has eaten some shots so far in the UFC, but nothing on the level of what Diakiese will hit him with. Still, it’s nice to know that the Englishman can go 15 if need be, and I think he makes good in his UFC debut.
 
You knock out an undefeated Russian prospect and your line becomes that juiced with Martins, holy crap.

Santos is tough outing for anyone and if he gets it to the ground, martins is going to have to deal with a 7 time ji jitus champ, lets hope live betting gets more interesting.
 
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