UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

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OK i've done all of the tape watching I need to for Grant vs Stasiak

Stasiak is horrible. Seriously. What the hell is this guy good at? I guess he transitions pretty well from top control. But his wrestling is bad, his jits is bad (LOL at the choke attempt from Meza in round 1 that he almost won the fight with), his stand up is bad, hes pretty slow, he gasses. Just smh. I'm not too impressed with Grant, but to his credit his weird fight vs Vera was his best performance, he sprawls well and he has good instincts. Thats more than enough to win this fight.

Feels like i've parlayed everything I like already unfortunately, but I need to find a way to play Grant. Think hes one of the best bets on the card. Hopefully Diakiese drops back to the -1xx range and i'll take my shot with that. Just hope Grant doesn't go back to -2xx
 
Is Davey Grant that TUF dude? I remember him having pretty decent abilities but horrible fight IQ
 
usernamee said:
Is Davey Grant that TUF dude? I remember him having pretty decent abilities but horrible fight IQ
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Yes. His IQ seems fine to me. Even if it was bad, idk if that would matter. I don't see how Stasiak can win this fight
 
SBJJ said:
How do we know he is just a 1 round brawler?
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BigNick100 said:
All of Perry's 8 wins have been by TKO or KO. 6 out of those 8 were in the 1st round, and the other 2 coming in the 2nd round. He has never been to the 3rd round in his career.
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MidgardSerpent said:
Not to mention this guy acted like a complete Jersey Shore tool before the fight with Lim. It's pretty clear the term 'cerebral' isn't part of his approach to life.
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what MS said ... it's like.. if perry is some cardio machine that is throwing bombs and good defensively in late 2nd, 3rd round, well i'll just pay for that.

like entwistle... i'm prolly just doing the U1.5.. if he comes out and shows good fight IQ, cardio.. if he doesn't quit after not getting the leglock... well, i'll just pay for it.

so yea, i guess you could say there are unknowns with perry and all, but i'm willing to take the risk, cause of the edges i listed for roberts.. kinda wish i did more than 2u at -135
 
Joseph Budden said:
OK i've done all of the tape watching I need to for Grant vs Stasiak

Stasiak is horrible. Seriously. What the hell is this guy good at? I guess he transitions pretty well from top control. But his wrestling is bad, his jits is bad (LOL at the choke attempt from Meza in round 1 that he almost won the fight with), his stand up is bad, hes pretty slow, he gasses. Just smh. I'm not too impressed with Grant, but to his credit his weird fight vs Vera was his best performance, he sprawls well and he has good instincts. Thats more than enough to win this fight.

Feels like i've parlayed everything I like already unfortunately, but I need to find a way to play Grant. Think hes one of the best bets on the card. Hopefully Diakiese drops back to the -1xx range and i'll take my shot with that. Just hope Grant doesn't go back to -2xx
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someone called stasiak the demian maia of 145 last fight, lol.
 
LEMONZEST said:
I don't care about belts. Vitor fights like a striker that has no BJJ training. I bet he rarely trains BJJ and mainly focuses on striking. I heavily favour Mousasi in the wrestling/grappling/clinching dept. Mousasi is technical and trains this stuff. Either Vitor lands a KO early or he is done.
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Vitor has pretty good foot submissions though
BelfortSilvaPrado.gif
 
EzFlyer said:
someone called stasiak the demian maia of 145 last fight, lol.
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<{cruzshake}>

I've parlayed Grant with o2.5 Kyoji/Ali as i'm very confident in both and it returns better than evens. Also decided for this fight i'll play Grant -3.5 straight and in my round robin. Surely with his ml and o2.5 price its reasonable to assume i'll get it close to evens which is amazing.

I'll be damned big on Grant here, but i'm confident.
 
His fight with Steele does make me a bit hesitant to back Roberts but I am looking for the perfect opportunity to fade Perry. I did a bit of a write-up on him for his debut where I watched a couple of fights of his including his boxing debut. He has big power and if he lands he'll hurt you, which is what makes me a bit iffy about whether Roberts is the one to give him his first loss due to him getting tagged a bit by Steele. Here's part of my write up from the 202 card he appeared on;

he's a muscular guy with so-so boxing and like his frame and record suggests, packs power. If he can turn it into a brawl early on against Lim he seems to have enough power in his hands to certainly hurt Lim and possibly finish him if he catches him. He's a bit slow though and I think he'll slow quite significantly if he doesn't put Lim away in the 1st given how he throws a lot of haymakers and his muscular build, and especially if Lim gets his knees to the body going.
...

I can't see him winning a decision if it goes to that and though I'd have to watch more tape to see, I don't think he has much in the way of a ground game. He nearly got taken down in that Carrillo fight and when the fight did hit the ground later, it wasn't for long as he dropped his opponent/forced him to shoot a very weak takedown when hurt, ended up riding a turtling Carrillo for a little moment then got out of there when Carrillo nearly turned it into a reversal/takedown.
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He's essentially a wild brawler. He's not fast or got much/any of a ground game and his style and body type (he's got so much muscle at 170) suggest that if he doesn't put you away early, he's going to tire since he doesn't mix up his strikes, everything is a haymaker. Betting Danny is scary though because he engaged in a wild fight against Steele and got dropped despite Steele not being known for his power, if Perry gets him to brawl and lands I don't know if Roberts will be able to survive.

I won my 3 bets on Lim/Perry (u2.5 @ 1.40, u1.5 @ 1.90 and Perry r1 KO @ 13 - lines were way off for both the latter two) but I'm not sure for this. Have there been any interviews with Roberts? I think if he's happy to keep it on the feet and brawl he'll probably get sparked out. With him being from the UK the main fear is he does that "wanting to put on a show" thing and throw down which would be a disaster. Perry is without a doubt at his weakest off of his back and he's not really got any wrestling or BJJ technique, the only thing that will stop it from going there is Danny deciding himself not to grapple or Perry using brute strength to stuff takedown attempts which is entirely possible for the first round or so.

If Roberts and his corner are smart, they're going to come out and attempt to take him down straight away. Even if he doesn't get it, keep it in the clinch and make Perry work, he'll tire quickly. If he gets it down, the round should be his, if quite likely the fight. It all depends on his mindset and gameplan though, wilfully engage in a brawl right from the start and I think he gets hit and finished. Fight smart and he can probably get a very easy sub here. Like I said, very interested to see if there's any interviews hinting at his plans because Roberts by sub could be the best bet for this fight given Fight ends ITD will be unplayable.
 
Mousasi predicts r1 finish on MMA hour. I will be on that for 1/2 unit.
 
What do you think about u1.5 Belfort/Mousasi ?

Belfort has 24 of his 37 fights u1.5

Mousasi 33/45 fights u1.5 ( 20/31 since debut in Pride)

Belfort is old, 20 year career, no TRT, he is as fragile as dangerous (knockdown ratio very high but also his knockdown defense ratio is terrible, like 18% or something like that, I read these statistics from Reed Kuhn (author of Fightnomics). Not only his chin is bad, he is vulnerable on the ground, if he wins it will be by early KO a lot of times too. Belfort is in the end of his career, he has to win to be relevant and if I'm not mistaken he said was very hesitant against Jacare because of the takedown threat and he regretted his game plan. Maybe is going to kill or die this time?

Mousasi has all the tools to finish Belfort early imo

under1.5 -125 365bet. Belfort R1 +650. Thoughts?
 
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Polarize said:
What do you think about u1.5 Belfort/Mousasi ?

Belfort has 24 of his 37 fights u1.5

Mousasi 33/45 fights u1.5 ( 20/31 since debut in Pride)

Belfort is old, 20 year career, no TRT, he is as fragile as dangerous (knockdown ratio very high but also his knockdown defense ratio is terrible, like 18% or something like that, I read these statistics from Reed Kuhn (author of Fightnomics). Not only his chin is bad, he is vulnerable on the ground, if he wins it will be by early KO a lot of times too. Belfort is in the end of his career, he have to win to be relevant and if I'm not mistaken he said was very hesitant against Jacare because of the takedown threat and he regretted his game plan. Maybe is going to kill or die this time?

Mousasi has all the tools to finish Belfort early imo

under1.5 -125 365bet. Belfort R1 +650. Thoughts?
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Mousasi has a tendency to play with his prey. Like he could have finished a gassed, hurt Latifi easily but opted to jab him for 3 rounds instead. That's what's scaring me away from the under or round 1
 
Joseph Budden said:
<{cruzshake}>

I've parlayed Grant with o2.5 Kyoji/Ali as i'm very confident in both and it returns better than evens. Also decided for this fight i'll play Grant -3.5 straight and in my round robin. Surely with his ml and o2.5 price its reasonable to assume i'll get it close to evens which is amazing.

I'll be damned big on Grant here, but i'm confident.
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I'm with you on Grant but looking to parlay him so i can get +odds. If you lose to Meza then you are automatic fade material. Only way Stasiak wins is with a sub and I don't see that as a likely outcome at all.

Grant should be like one of the biggest favs on the card, odds are generous. Wanted to parlay with Martins but not liking price.
 
Diakiese/Sajewski u2.5 @ +130 looks nice. I really have trouble seeing this one going to a decision.
 
NinoNorrland said:
Diakiese/Sajewski u2.5 @ +130 looks nice. I really have trouble seeing this one going to a decision.
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Could be solid time spent in the clinch if Lukasz can get inside and if Diakiese either embraces it or can't get the better of it. I think Diakiese by KO will hold better value as it's likely the only way this ends itd.
 
It's up to you guys if you want the opportunity for as close to free money as possible for UFC 204. 400 likes and I'm reluctantly giving for free my UFC picks for the card. There's a strong possibility I will top my previous 13+ unit profit. I'm one of the rare cappers who let's his followers piggyback off my extraordinary plays. You win $ I do all the hard work in my lab. Can't say it any better than this: "If it don't make dollars, it don't make sense" right fellas?

- Barry
 

Really enjoyed watching this, Bisping is a savage.
 
Barry, on of the few pro cappers that makes a living selling picks for likes
 
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