http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-204-betting-odds/
Omielanczuk isn’t a big hitter, but he’ll likely need to put Struve away to win this fight. If Omielanczuk was able to keep this fight on the feet for 15 minutes, he could win as well, but his proclivity for falling into the clinch could prove troublesome in that pursuit. Struve’s height makes him a surprisingly effective (and underrated) wrestler from that position, and Omielanczuk has weak takedown defense to begin with. If this turns into a grappling match, Struve has the advantage, so Omielanczuk needs to stay at range against a much longer fighter for 15 minutes without falling into the clinch. That’s a lot to ask for any heavyweight.
If we’re continuing the trend of being honest, Pickett has lost his last four fights. He’s had a couple of bright moments during that span, but he’s generally shown the same poor defense as always, which has been exacerbated by his physical decline. Pickett may be able fall back on his wrestling here — as he is one of the very few British fighters who you wouldn’t know is British by watching him wrestle — as Alcantara can be lazy about his defense, but I have to think the dynamic game of the Brazilian gets through on the feet enough to take a decision. Pickett has been known to get some bad decisions though, and at home that could be a factor.
Entwistle gets the leg lock early or quits and loses. Although anyone can get caught by a leg lock, Font should be good enough to avoid it. He wins. By stoppage. That said, I could see this being the spot where everyone just looks at Entwistle as the one-dimensional leg lock guy and bets up his opponent way too high and then Font potentially gets caught.
Grant and Stasiak could put on a fun grappling battle, or a really bad striking battle. I don’t think either fighter truly has the desire or skill set to keep this on the feet should the other pursue a takedown. Once they hit the ground, I think the fight is evenly matched, although I found it surprising that Grant wasn’t able to have more success on the ground against Marlon Vera than he did. I expect Grant to be a bit overpriced here, but I’m not sure I’m ready to pull the trigger on Stasiak.
One of the best bouts on the card, Edwards and Tumenov should be the exact opposite of Grant and Stasiak. Both have struggled when they’ve faced grapplers but beaten anyone willing to strike with them. Tumenov has the higher level competition and wins, but Edwards could give him trouble as a slightly longer southpaw. In the end, I think that Tumenov is more used to fighting dangerous strikers and at a higher pace, which should lead him to victory. However, Edwards does have more one-punch power out of the two, which could equalize things.
At some point, Perry is going to struggle with a really technical fighter, but I don’t think Roberts is it. That’s not to say Roberts can’t win this fight. He’s a big hitter and has a sneaky submission game, but I feel like Perry can lure him into a slugfest on the feet. If that’s the case, I’ve seen Perry do more damage in a short period of time, while Roberts has looked quite hittable in some of his fights. Perry would be a play if I could get him in the +140 or higher range, but I won’t bother around even money as I do think Roberts is the more skilled overall fighter.
Santos is a guy that I picked (and bet) against versus Efrain Escudero, and almost won, and yet somehow he’s still undefeated in the UFC. It absolutely blows my mind that those two things can exist within the same fighter. Hopefully that undefeated UFC record means we can get a discount on Martins against him, because this has to be the time Santos gets beaten, right? Perhaps Santos has a slight advantage in pure BJJ, but Martins is no slouch and a vastly superior wrestler here, so I think that negates even the slightest path to victory for Santos. It’s getting hard to bet against this guy, but on the other hand, Martins has been a money train in the UFC, so I have no problem backing him once again if the number isn’t too high.
Through two fights, it seems to me that Sajewski is tough, but simply not quite athletic or skilled enough to compete at the UFC level. It’s hard to speak for the skill at this point, but Diakiese is definitely athletic and explosive enough to compete in the UFC, but he’s also been able to show an ability to manage his cardio in the past if need be, and even grind some opponents out. Sajewski has eaten some shots so far in the UFC, but nothing on the level of what Diakiese will hit him with. Still, it’s nice to know that the Englishman can go 15 if need be, and I think he makes good in his UFC debut.