So I wanna ask you as a true Gane fan--what do you realistically think his chances are? Not what you want to happen, but putting aside your biases the best you can--what % chance do you give him. (I'm sort of asking this from the bettors perspective since I bet a lot of MMA).
Personally, I objectively think Aspinall is clearly the better fighter. More power, at least as much speed (maybe more), far superior grappling. That said, Gane has some very obvious positive attributes. Extremely fluid striking at HW. Better footwork than anyone I can remember in the division. Great athlete.
From the gambler's perspective, this is a pass for me. Tom **should** win, but the line is incredibly wide for a high variance weight class in a high variance sport. And while Gane has some flaws, he's not some last minute replacement bum thrown in there as cannon fodder to keep the champ on the card. He's a legit HW with legit wins, so paying -4xx juice against him doesn't make sense to me (even on a killer like Aspinall).
So what is your OBJECTIVE breakdown, and what % chance do you give Gane?