Motives huh , let's talk about Gane’s strengths, and avoid hyping Aspinall too much.Gane’s walking into this fight as the underdog, sitting at +300 odds against Aspinall’s -400, but don’t sleep on him. The guy’s a 6’4”, 247-pound Muay Thai wizard with a 13-2 record and 10-2 in the UFC. He’s got the skills to turn this into his fight—a technical striking clinic that drags Aspinall into deep waters where Gane thrives. Here’s why “Bon Gamin” is going to shock the world and take that belt.First, Gane’s striking is on another level. The dude’s a sniper, landing 5.26 significant strikes per minute with a ridiculous 61% accuracy, and he only eats 2.23 shots back because he’s so damn hard to hit, dodging 68% of strikes thrown his way. He’s like a ghost in there, circling and picking guys apart with jabs, calf kicks, and sneaky counters. Look at his rematch with Alexander Volkov last December—Gane outstruck a taller, rangy dude 120-98 over three rounds, using footwork to stay out of danger. Aspinall’s fast and hits hard, but Gane’s faced scarier punchers. Francis Ngannou, the hardest hitter in UFC history, couldn’t knock him out in 25 minutes back in 2022. Tai Tuivasa dropped him once in 2022, sure, but Gane popped right back up and won by decision. Aspinall’s power is real, but Gane’s chin and recovery are battle-tested.
The key here is Gane’s ability to make this a long, frustrating fight. Aspinall’s a finisher—11 of his 12 UFC wins are by KO or sub, and his fights average two minutes flat. But he’s never gone past Round 2 in the UFC, and he’s coming off a 15-month layoff since KO’ing Curtis Blaydes in July 2024. Gane, meanwhile, has gone five rounds with Ngannou and looked fresh, averaging 14:15 fight time among top heavyweights.
If Gane keeps it standing and avoids the early blitz, Aspinall’s cardio is a big question mark. Gane’s lighter frame and slick movement let him dance circles around guys, draining their gas tank. He’s said himself: “Tom’s fast, but we’ll both be tired late, and I’m ready for that.” That’s not just talk—Gane’s built for marathons, not sprints.Now, everyone’s worried about Gane’s grappling after Jon Jones tapped him out in 2023, but let’s pump the brakes. Jones is a once-in-a-generation wrestler; Aspinall’s good on the ground (three UFC subs), but he’s not that level. Gane’s been grinding his wrestling hard since that loss, and it shows.
He stuffed 80% of Serghei Spivac’s takedowns in 2024 and even flipped Volkov into top control in their rematch. He’s got three submission wins himself, so he’s not helpless off his back—he can sweep or scramble if Aspinall shoots. Plus, Gane’s Muay Thai clinch is nasty; if Aspinall tries to close distance for a takedown, he’s eating knees to the body that’ll slow him down. Gane’s takedown defense is up to 75% now, and Aspinall’s takedowns, while explosive, aren’t as slick as Jones’. If Gane sprawls early, he keeps this a striking match where he’s the better man.Mentally, Gane’s got the edge too. He’s been through the wringer—losses to Ngannou and Jones, criticism for taking a year off to act in a movie—and he’s come back hungrier. He’s calling this his “redemption,” and you can feel it in his interviews: he’s locked in. Aspinall’s confident, but he’s carrying the pressure of his first undisputed title defense after Jones retired. Gane’s been in bigger moments and bounced back 2-0 since Jones, beating Tybura and Volkov. He knows how to handle adversity; Aspinall’s barely been tested, with only one loss (a fluke injury to Blaydes).Here’s how I see it going. Round 1, Aspinall comes out hot, throwing heavy hands and maybe a takedown attempt. Gane slips most of it, lands a few jabs and leg kicks, and survives the storm—probably loses the round 10-9 but stays safe. Round 2, Gane’s in his groove, picking Aspinall apart from range with counters. He stuffs a takedown, maybe clips Aspinall with a sharp left hook.
By Rounds 3 and 4, Aspinall’s slowing down—those big swings are missing, and Gane’s piling up 80+ strikes, bloodying him up. Round 5, Aspinall’s gassed from chasing. Gane smells blood, lands a flurry in the clinch, and after a scramble, he’s on top, hammering away for a TKO stoppage at 4:00. Gane wins, belt around his waist, and sets up a massive Ngannou trilogy.I’m not saying Aspinall can’t land a bomb early—he might! But Gane’s too slippery, too durable, and too smart to get caught. His striking IQ and cardio are going to carry him to a late stoppage
