Tom Aspinall vs. Francis Ngannou - Who wins?

[Tweak896]

Now I think Aspinall, but if the Ngannou who beat Stipe fought Aspinall, Aspinall loses. Ngannou's knees seem low key rekt, although Aspinall might have a knee problem too so it cancels out.

 

[Burd]

Primes I’d lean 50/50, but Francis would be 40 when they fight

 

[don't ask]

Say if these two somehow fight, who takes it in your opinion?

Tom's head and neck like one of the Ripping Friends

 

[ShadowRun]

No, it confirms he defeats Tom. It won't be easy, but he does it.

People who think Tom's speed is something that JJ has no answer to are tripping. Aspinall's hands movement is quick for HW, sure. But it's comparable to LHW speed. If you look through actual data :

https://www.mmamania.com/2023/11/11...pinall-sergei-pavlovich-jon-jones-heavyweight

Aspinall’s cross (~0.26 s) is ~25 ms slower than Reyes (~0.24 s) and Gus (~0.23 s), but still very fast for a 250-lb heavyweight. But he doesn't move quicker than Gus and Reyes.

Gus and Reyes don't attack in a straight like like Tom does, they use a V like movement and constantly re-angle, which makes JJ chase them. If you pay attention to Tom's blitz, they are straight liners into boxing range, which is favourable to JJ usage of his reach and oblique kicks. Gus and Reyes had verifiable cardio, Reyes had went 5 rounds while keeping a heavy strike output in round 4 vs JJ... Tom is questionable given how much energy he burns as he is seen breathing through his mouth early.

Aspinall is a black belt, but the wrestling and grappling, it's different.., and a single takedown with elbows to the body already burns a high amount of energy, specially someone whose cardio apparently may not be that good. Stipe had a huge cardio to keep in fight after that round 1. Tom generates a lot of power, but his energy spent in two rounds is like double that spent normally, and for a HW, that means a third round could mean a heavy cardio drop. If his hands movements are still slower than Reyes and Gus, and his precision is striking is lower than Reyes and Gus too (sources cite it, with Alex Pereira being one of the strikers with bigger precision in LHW, while Tom had less precision than some LHW strikers like Reyes), coupled with the fact his blitz linearly, that plays well into JJ's usage of kicks and jabs to control range — even more when you account for the fact his reach advantage over Tom is bigger than the one vs Reyes and Gus, that makes it textbook easier than if you out him against an Alex Pereira or Ankalaev....


Does his speed and KO power matter? Ofc... But speed alone lands when:

1. The target stands in lane —> Jones wouldn't until Aspinall slows.


2. The entry is disguised —> Jones’ line-kicks remove disguise time.


3. The exchange lasts >2 beats —> Jones generally frames or level-changes after 1–2 beats, meaning high likelihood of clinch and stalling the initial outburst.

Aspinall’s hand speed is elite for that size, but his biggest KO wins were at boxing distance after opponents’ stationary reads ( Sergei Pavlovich lunging hook, Blaydes squared in retreat)... That distance is precisely what Jones disrupts with the tools mentioned above.

If you think JJ is scared in the sense of seeing Aspinall as the opponent he feels he is slightly behind, that's just false... The Reyes and Gus scenarios aren't remotely comparable as a "Reyes almost won bs a younger JJ so Tom will smoke him" is totally false. Even more because JJ awareness of cautious approach + effective aggression, without doing those loops he'd do vs Gus and DC, using methodical precision and timing entries that are perfectly synched to dominate and make up for his loss of athleticism, all while he still has a lot of good movements as his striking speed is as quick as his LHW era + higher precision, makes that a totally different scenario than what you imagine... It's a cautious approach that capitalizes moments , which beats speed and blitzes for sure. I am sure the day they fight, the worst case scenario for JJ would likely be a Gus 1 or Reyes level of difficulty. Maybe that can happen. But likely, a 3-2 more decisive win or a 4-1 win or a late stoppage in the final rounds with a TKO by JJ is what I think. If be surprised if it reached a war like Gus...

Tom beating him quickly is the least likely scenario possible... It's a fight Tom would need to be perfect to win, as JJ is the most talented fighter of all times...

I agree he beats Tom.

 

[Fedorgasm]

Francis faced 66% of the elite HW boxers in the world, and only 50% were able to hurt him.

Plus HW is the one class where you can still be good at 39-40 if you have KO power.

In his last MMA fight Francis was throwing some nasty shots on the ground. Dude still has insane power.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

 

[Kwic]

Now, probably Aspinal but it's still close to a 50/50 fight since Francis can murder anyone if he lands.
Before when he was at his best I would slightly favor Francis maybe but still close to a 50/50 fight. I do think that Francis could land and hurt Tom when he was the man.
He still is, but I don't think he is in his prime while Tom probably is around his.

 

[mkess101]

Francis faced 66% of the elite HW boxers in the world, and only 50% were able to hurt him.

Plus HW is the one class where you can still be good at 39-40 if you have KO power.

In his last MMA fight Francis was throwing some nasty shots on the ground. Dude still has insane power.

I don't think anyone is doubting that Ngannou still has massive power. Both guys are gonna finish if they land clean. The reason more people are picking Tom is that (especially at this point) it's more likely that Tom is the one that lands something big first. Younger, faster, better hand speed.

 

[OmegaRugal]

Tom is more skilled but with Francis power and awkward striking… I wouldn’t bet on this.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Ngannou would not be able to panic-wrestle Aspinall.

Tom via being much better fighter.

Only thing Francis is better than Tom is 1 punch KO power.

 

[rakeleaves]

LOL no, no they'e not. You're arguments are one sided and delusional. Francis has an iron chin?? That is the dumbest argument to make, especially at HW to rely on their chin lol

Nice try kiddo, now run along.

That was one out of many arguments I've made, not the only one. And he DOES have an iron chin. Are you seriously trying to dispute that?

 

[rakeleaves]

Not sure what to tell you. I know exactly what I'm looking at. Francis stood and stared at Black Beast scared to engage and losing a decision, (want me to list all the guys who have KO'd Derrick?) so please don't try this tired tactic of cherry picking a fight and using it as some sort of defining thing. Tom's "tough fight" with Arlovski was Tom winning rd 1, then backing AA up to the cage rd 2 and teeing off until AA gift wrapped an easy TD and sub. Yeah..."tough fight". And that's the ONLY guy who's even made it to rd 2.

And again, we aren't talking about Ngannou circa 2017. Yes he's shown a good chin over his career but the ability to withstand damage deteriorates with age. And getting flatlined like he did vs Joshua speeds up that deterioration. Whether you want to admit it or not, 32 vs 39 and the amount of damage taken matters. If we were talking about current Aspinall vs the Ngannou that wrecked Overeem? I wouldn't be nearly as confident in Aspinall but that's a fight that can't happen.

The Joshua KO doesn't help his chin, but he still hasn't taken too much damage throughout his career for an older fighter. The BB fight was more of a mental block than anything, literally nothing happened. Francis showed he could come back from those two loses and has been on a tear ever since. Tom got clipped clean by Arlovski many times, and if that happens with Francis, it's game over.

 

[mkess101]

The Joshua KO doesn't help his chin, but he still hasn't taken too much damage throughout his career for an older fighter. The BB fight was more of a mental block than anything, literally nothing happened. Francis showed he could come back from those two loses and has been on a tear ever since. Tom got clipped clean by Arlovski many times, and if that happens with Francis, it's game over.

It's not JUST the Joshua KO. If he was 31 and KO'd like that...different story. He's almost 40. Brutal KO's late in a career matter WAY more. There's cumulative damage over all the sparring rounds, MMA fights, boxing matches. That shit adds up. I was only in that world less than 6 years and absorbed a ton of damage. Just shit like your head landing on the mat time after time in training.

And you can't just excuse his performance (if we can call it that) vs Lewis as a "mental block" and give a free pass on a fight he lost but then fixate on the few punches that AA landed clean on Tom (that he ate without issue and then went on to easily finish AA in rd 2). I could just as easily say "Tom didn't feel threatened by AA at all so was more lax in his defense but would be way different vs other opponents". See how that works?

 

[JKS]

That was one out of many arguments I've made, not the only one. And he DOES have an iron chin. Are you seriously trying to dispute that?

No I am not, Francis has a very good chin. But as the Joshua fights shows, not quite iron enough as he got dropped twice and then KO'd unconscious.

The point is that having an iron chin is not anything a fighter should rely on, especially at HW.

 

[Bouboumaster]

50/50

Aspinall is more talented and way quicker, but Ngannou still have that one-shot power, and he's an ok wrestler

 

[rakeleaves]

No I am not, Francis has a very good chin. But as the Joshua fights shows, not quite iron enough as he got dropped twice and then KO'd unconscious.

The point is that having an iron chin is not anything a fighter should rely on, especially at HW.

Doesn't matter how good your chin is, if you get hit clean by Anthony Joshua like that, you are going out. Thankfully for Francis, nobody punches like that in MMA.


When did I say you should rely on your chin? I didn't. Enough with the strawmans. Chin is a factor you consider when analyzing fights, that's it. Francis has the boxing, chin, and power advantage over Aspinall.

 

[rakeleaves]

It's not JUST the Joshua KO. If he was 31 and KO'd like that...different story. He's almost 40. Brutal KO's late in a career matter WAY more. There's cumulative damage over all the sparring rounds, MMA fights, boxing matches. That shit adds up. I was only in that world less than 6 years and absorbed a ton of damage. Just shit like your head landing on the mat time after time in training.

And you can't just excuse his performance (if we can call it that) vs Lewis as a "mental block" and give a free pass on a fight he lost but then fixate on the few punches that AA landed clean on Tom (that he ate without issue and then went on to easily finish AA in rd 2). I could just as easily say "Tom didn't feel threatened by AA at all so was more lax in his defense but would be way different vs other opponents". See how that works?

Francis is an extremely fresh 40 years old in terms of MMA damage over the course of his career. Please. You are just speculating on something that we haven't been shown any evidence of yet in this case.

Now, you act like I didn't already say "assuming Francis hasn't fallen off a cliff in the last year" in my OP. That's possible... I just don't think it's likely.

 

[BowserJr]

Aspinall is a better all around well rounded fighter with more tools to win.

Tom is a more dangerous opponent for JBJ

But Francis likely finds the button.

The best way to beat Francis is wrestling so JBJ easily beats Francis so thats just a lame match

 

[Intermission]

Aspinall all day. So much faster, more explosive and a more well rounded. Big Frank does have the one-punch knockout power, but so does Aspinall.

ngannou has very good hand speed

 

[MMAFanCal]

ngannou has very good hand speed

He does, but Aspinall is on a different level. Never seen a nearly 260 lbs move so fast and react so fast.