Tom Aspinall vs. Francis Ngannou - Who wins?

[WoozyFailGuy]

Tom, younger, more well rounded, hungrier (less money), hasn't been viciously knocked out by a HW boxer

 

[Luffy]

Now, Jon Jones vs Alex Pereira or Ankalaev, that'd be a true grinding battle

 

[mkess101]

JJ defeats Tom Aspinall and then beats Ngannou. That's what Jon Jones said he would do, and that's what he will likely do.

You are done claiming Jones and Aspinall already fought in some secret underground fight LMAO?

If your boy finds a bit of courage and takes the fight, he's getting KO'd. And then you'll run away and Sherdog will be less one crazy weirdo.

 

[Luffy]

You are done claiming Jones and Aspinall already fought in some secret underground fight LMAO?

If your boy finds a bit of courage and takes the fight, he's getting KO'd. And then you'll run away and Sherdog will be less one crazy weirdo.

But they have. Chicago event. The way the UFC chose to play fights is their business. But it'll be revealed sooner than they expected due to the petitions of fans, which inevitably will lead to the truth being released sooner



JJ is calling Francis because the Aspinall thing is done.

 

[mkess101]

But they have. Chicago event. The way the UFC chose to play fights is their business. But it'll be revealed sooner than they expected due to the petitions of fans, which inevitably will lead to the truth being released sooner



JJ is calling Francis because the Aspinall thing is done.

You're still insane. Cool.

 

[Luffy]

Watch the "Is Jon Jones ducking or just playing chess vs Tom?" episode broadcast with Khabib's and Islam's coach. It's 30 minutes long and he went in depth there. He shared insights that are only known by whoever understands MMA in depth like him. He said this is a whole promo thing and that he knows JJ in the end "f**CK Tom up"

 

[Luffy]

You're still insane. Cool.

Can't wait until you know it. I will love your reaction, gonna be priceless...

 

[mkess101]

Can't wait until you know it. I will love your reaction, gonna be priceless...

Totally! It's gonna happen right after the ghosts of Elvis and Muhammed Ali save us all from the clone army being being assembled by BJ Penn's family.

 

[fractal]

Aspinall all day. So much faster, more explosive and a more well rounded. Big Frank does have the one-punch knockout power, but so does Aspinall.

The fact that Jon now wants to fight Francis confirms all of this.

 

[Sweater of AV]

 

[Alacran]

It really depends on who lands first

 

[SamuraiBro]

Tom easy W, would make Magumbo look slow as shit.

 

[mkess101]

If they did a staring contest we know Ngannou dominates. Look at his legendary performance on that front vs Black Beast. That was such an epic showdown of two huge men just staring the absolute shit out of each other.

 

[TeenageMutantLesnarTurtle]

For now i'm still slightly leaning towards Ngannou. Granted he is a few months off turning 39 and his chin might have been cracked in that AJ fight, but he looked sharp against Renan. He is also a special athlete by HW MMA standards, even at his age. Tom can get a little reckless at times and Ngannou has the most one hitter quitter power of anyone ever in MMA to make Tom pay if he catches him, he has also demonstrated enough grappling ability that a takedown isnt necessarily an easy route to success against him either.

 

[Luffy]

The fact that Jon now wants to fight Francis confirms all of this.

No, it confirms he defeats Tom. It won't be easy, but he does it.

People who think Tom's speed is something that JJ has no answer to are tripping. Aspinall's hands movement is quick for HW, sure. But it's comparable to LHW speed. If you look through actual data :

https://www.mmamania.com/2023/11/11...pinall-sergei-pavlovich-jon-jones-heavyweight

Aspinall’s cross (~0.26 s) is ~25 ms slower than Reyes (~0.24 s) and Gus (~0.23 s), but still very fast for a 250-lb heavyweight. But he doesn't move quicker than Gus and Reyes.

Gus and Reyes don't attack in a straight like like Tom does, they use a V like movement and constantly re-angle, which makes JJ chase them. If you pay attention to Tom's blitz, they are straight liners into boxing range, which is favourable to JJ usage of his reach and oblique kicks. Gus and Reyes had verifiable cardio, Reyes had went 5 rounds while keeping a heavy strike output in round 4 vs JJ... Tom is questionable given how much energy he burns as he is seen breathing through his mouth early.

Aspinall is a black belt, but the wrestling and grappling, it's different.., and a single takedown with elbows to the body already burns a high amount of energy, specially someone whose cardio apparently may not be that good. Stipe had a huge cardio to keep in fight after that round 1. Tom generates a lot of power, but his energy spent in two rounds is like double that spent normally, and for a HW, that means a third round could mean a heavy cardio drop. If his hands movements are still slower than Reyes and Gus, and his precision is striking is lower than Reyes and Gus too (sources cite it, with Alex Pereira being one of the strikers with bigger precision in LHW, while Tom had less precision than some LHW strikers like Reyes), coupled with the fact his blitz linearly, that plays well into JJ's usage of kicks and jabs to control range — even more when you account for the fact his reach advantage over Tom is bigger than the one vs Reyes and Gus, that makes it textbook easier than if you out him against an Alex Pereira or Ankalaev....


Does his speed and KO power matter? Ofc... But speed alone lands when:

1. The target stands in lane —> Jones wouldn't until Aspinall slows.


2. The entry is disguised —> Jones’ line-kicks remove disguise time.


3. The exchange lasts >2 beats —> Jones generally frames or level-changes after 1–2 beats, meaning high likelihood of clinch and stalling the initial outburst.

Aspinall’s hand speed is elite for that size, but his biggest KO wins were at boxing distance after opponents’ stationary reads ( Sergei Pavlovich lunging hook, Blaydes squared in retreat)... That distance is precisely what Jones disrupts with the tools mentioned above.

If you think JJ is scared in the sense of seeing Aspinall as the opponent he feels he is slightly behind, that's just false... The Reyes and Gus scenarios aren't remotely comparable as a "Reyes almost won bs a younger JJ so Tom will smoke him" is totally false. Even more because JJ awareness of cautious approach + effective aggression, without doing those loops he'd do vs Gus and DC, using methodical precision and timing entries that are perfectly synched to dominate and make up for his loss of athleticism, all while he still has a lot of good movements as his striking speed is as quick as his LHW era + higher precision, makes that a totally different scenario than what you imagine... It's a cautious approach that capitalizes moments , which beats speed and blitzes for sure. I am sure the day they fight, the worst case scenario for JJ would likely be a Gus 1 or Reyes level of difficulty. Maybe that can happen. But likely, a 3-2 more decisive win or a 4-1 win or a late stoppage in the final rounds with a TKO by JJ is what I think. If be surprised if it reached a war like Gus...

Tom beating him quickly is the least likely scenario possible... It's a fight Tom would need to be perfect to win, as JJ is the most talented fighter of all times...

 

[spinup]

Oh he's not perfect, I agree. He's been clipped but rarely is hit clean. More glancing shots because he's been fast enough to avoid being hit flush (so far).

Hmmm, Pavlovich got him pretty hard when he knocked his mouthpiece off. Tom was acting cool, but I think he was on wobbly legs for a moment.
Ngannou (like Aspinall) does not hesitate when smells blood, he goes for the kill immediately.

Ngannou now is just likely too old and slow for Tom. 5 years ago...Francis had good speed too. The problem is that 5 years ago was before Tom hit his prime. They're primes really haven't overlapped.

Quite possible.
I am not taking a stance on that fight if that happens. Too much unknown.

 

[Thepaintbucket]

Francis now or from a few years ago? Francis is older these days, inactive in MMA and got knocked out by Joshua. Tom would have the edge in 2025.

However if this was Francis before he left the UFC it's a bad night for Tom

 

[mkess101]

Hmmm, Pavlovich got him pretty hard when he knocked his mouthpiece off. Tom was acting cool, but I think he was on wobbly legs for a moment.
Ngannou (like Aspinall) does not hesitate when smells blood, he goes for the kill immediately.



Quite possible.
I am not taking a stance on that fight if that happens. Too much unknown.

Pavlovich hits like a truck, probably a top 2-3 HW in terms of power. Aspinall wasn't on wobbly legs at all that I saw. If anything that shows that Tom likely has a helluva chin.

 

[spinup]

Pavlovich hits like a truck, probably a top 2-3 HW in terms of power. Aspinall wasn't on wobbly legs at all that I saw. If anything that shows that Tom likely has a helluva chin.

Aspinall and Ngannou both have crazy power and chin. Aspinall is faster, Ngannou has the longer reach and is less hittable.

I am wonder how Aspinall would deal with Ngannou's wrestling (very underrated imo). Is he as good defensively as he is offensively?

 

[mkess101]

Aspinall and Ngannou both have crazy power and chin. Aspinall is faster, Ngannou has the longer reach and is less hittable.

I am wonder how Aspinall would deal with Ngannou's wrestling (very underrated imo). Is he as good defensively as he is offensively?

That's a big unknown at this point TBH. It's conjecture, but my view is that (now--again this isn’t necessarily an assessment of best version vs best version because Ngannou's best days are behind him) Aspinall's athleticism and quickness would probably make any offensive wrestling by Ngannou moot. Meaning I just don't think Ngannou has the explosiveness anymore to even get to a spot to test Tom's defensive wrestling.

I think currently, it's far more likely that Aspinall would take Ngannou down and work from top vs the other way around.