The War Room Bet Thread V4

[LiquidityTrap]

You should still be able to follow the point.

Also, I'd recommend that you follow baseball. It's good practice for evidence-based, anti-biased thinking.

What do you think is your % chance of losing this bet? What do you think was my % chance of losing?

 

[Lead]

Bet terms are simple. The premise is that even if the current proceedings don't result in conviction in the Senate because they're a bunch of spineless traitors to their country, enough damage has been done that he won't win re-election.

Accordingly, I say Trump will not be POTUS once the 2020 US election becomes official. If he is removed before that I win. If he's not removed and dies in office the bet is nullified. If he wins and the results are later overturned by a court you pay double.
Sig bet 3 mo.

If you agree, quote this and tag Lead and he can make it official in the bet thread.

@Lead
Easy money

@Richie Madano Of course, taking into account that immediately after the election the incumbent is still technically the president until the winner of the election is sworn in, I hope we're not going to have an argument about technicalities with my obvious intent, are we?

Nope. I expect a clean victory.

1. The exact statement the bet is premised upon
2. Stance each poster is taking in regards to the statement
3. The date the bet will be decided (this can become tentative based of the officiators call)
4. The reward/punishment for the winner/loser
5. The duration of the reward/punishment
6 (OPTIONAL) A situation which makes the bet void that isn't clear with the content in 1 & 2. This needs to be very clear if included.
7 (OPTIONAL) The moderator(s) (see list) the posters agree to call the bet. The default would be @Lead if no one else is selected

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Bet
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

@Crazy Diamond, do you agree with the premise stated there? You mentioned the election results being challenged/overturned possibly in the courts. Can we assume if the inagguration occurs, the courts were okay to proceed since Robert's does the swearing in?

 

[Lead]

@Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate votes at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Jack V Savage : against @Rockapotomuss : for
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months

I adjusted line 3 a tab bit. If you both approve, please quote this post with an okay and I'll make it official. Otherwise, please let me know what needs adjusted beforehand. If you see any room for a situation that would call for a null bet (no winner), please figure it before making the bet official. I couldn't think of anything.

 

[Lead]

@Rockapotomuss @Jack V Savage

The 300+ delegates clause. Is that on a single ballot? Also, super delegates are allowed to vote after the first ballot. Do they could towards the 300+?

Very minimal chances here but I like to get this all clean beforehand.

 

[Rockapotomuss]

@Rockapotomuss @Jack V Savage

The 300+ delegates clause. Is that on a single ballot? Also, super delegates are allowed to vote after the first ballot. Do they could towards the 300+?

Very minimal chances here but I like to get this all clean beforehand.

07/16/2020 is the last scheduled day of the DNC convention, but if it's brokered it could be extended by a day, a week, or who knows how long, to deal with the chaos. That's why clause 3 was written the way it was:

3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.

300+ on a single ballot yes, and that includes super delegates of course.

 

[Lead]

07/16/2020 is the last scheduled day of the DNC convention, but if it's brokered it could be extended by a day, a week, or who knows how long, to deal with the chaos. That's why clause 3 was written the way it was:

3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.

That's why I put tentatively. The above isn't stating an order either. If there is a reasonable reason to wait after the 07/16/2020 date, the tentatively part will cover that.

300+ on a single ballot yes, and that includes super delegates of course.

Got it. I'll await Jack's answers to see if they align.

 

[Jack V Savage]

That's why I put tentatively. The above isn't stating an order either. If there is a reasonable reason to wait after the 07/16/2020 date, the tentatively part will cover that.



Got it. I'll await Jack's answers to see if they align.

Yeah, that's fine. I accept.

 

[Lead]

07/16/2020 is the last scheduled day of the DNC convention, but if it's brokered it could be extended by a day, a week, or who knows how long, to deal with the chaos. That's why clause 3 was written the way it was:

3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.

300+ on a single ballot yes, and that includes super delegates of course.

That's why I put tentatively. The above isn't stating an order either. If there is a reasonable reason to wait after the 07/16/2020 date, the tentatively part will cover that.



Got it. I'll await Jack's answers to see if they align.

Yeah, that's fine. I accept.

@Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate/super delegate votes on a single ballot at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Rockapotomuss : for, @Jack V Savage : against
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months

Please quote this post and give a final okay and you'll have this official.

 

[Rockapotomuss]

@Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate/super delegate votes on a single ballot at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Rockapotomuss : for, @Jack V Savage : against
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months

Please quote this post and give a final okay and you'll have this official.

OK I accept.

 

[Andy Capp]

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Bet
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

@Crazy Diamond, do you agree with the premise stated there? You mentioned the election results being challenged/overturned possibly in the courts. Can we assume if the inagguration occurs, the courts were okay to proceed since Robert's does the swearing in?

I do not object but I must point out a discrepancy and clarify the final part. I said it would be a sig bet but I am ok with AV instead so @Richie Madano may choose before the bet is made official.

Regarding the latter bit, the idea was that if after the result of the election is made official there is a discovery of evidence that cheating was responsible for Trump's victory, I would immediately forego an further penalty and he would instead "pay" double, I.e. 6mo sig or av.

 

[Lead]

I do not object but I must point out a discrepancy and clarify the final part. I said it would be a sig bet but I am ok with AV instead so @Richie Madano may choose before the bet is made official.

My bad. I can edit that now or I'll ask for a final okay from you if he says good.

Regarding the latter bit, the idea was that if after the result of the election is made official there is a discovery of evidence that cheating was responsible for Trump's victory,

There needs to be a finality to bets and this somewhat leaves open a door that isn't recommended. If you really want it somewhat covered, we could move the deciding date 2-3 months after inauguration and say it's null if he's removed by then but it's messy. Like say there was dispute about that, who knows how long that could drag out on a bet.

I would immediately forego an further penalty and he would instead "pay" double, I.e. 6mo sig or av.

Because a bet needs finality, I don't offer clauses to get out of the remaining punishment after it's been decided. It's hard enough getting people to just take their punishment so having clauses like that would only muddy things more and take away from the point.
As far as the 6 months, I've limited Richie's bet length to 3 months because he's a new account and it's half the amount of time his account has been around. I'm considering making that the rule of thumb going forward to avoid huge bets no one intends to truly keep.

 

[Jack V Savage]

@Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate/super delegate votes on a single ballot at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Rockapotomuss : for, @Jack V Savage : against
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months

Please quote this post and give a final okay and you'll have this official.

OK.

 

[Sketch]

OK.

You're a disgusting hypocrite.

 

[Lead]

@Rockapotomuss v. @Jack V Savage
1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate/super delegate votes on a single ballot at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Rockapotomuss : for, @Jack V Savage : against
3. Tentatively 07/16/2020 or when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC (whichever comes first)
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months

Please quote this post and give a final okay and you'll have this official.

OK I accept.

OK.

(And now for a v4 upgrade)
ANDDDD NOWWWW from the heart of the War Room Subforum, this is the moment fellow War Roomers from around the world have been waiting for..
ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSSSS TIME!
In one corner, a newcomer with a 0-0 record, ambitious to jump to the top of the division, presenting the WOKE BASED POSTER, Rockkkkkaaapotomusss !
In the other corner, his opponent, holding an unscathed record of 6-0, presenting the SECRETARY OF KEEPIN’ IT REAL! THE NICEST GUY ON SHERDOG! JACK.... V.... SAVVVVVAGEEEE


(It’s official)

 

[Andy Capp]

My bad. I can edit that now or I'll ask for a final okay from you if he says good.


There needs to be a finality to bets and this somewhat leaves open a door that isn't recommended. If you really want it somewhat covered, we could move the deciding date 2-3 months after inauguration and say it's null if he's removed by then but it's messy. Like say there was dispute about that, who knows how long that could drag out on a bet.


Because a bet needs finality, I don't offer clauses to get out of the remaining punishment after it's been decided. It's hard enough getting people to just take their punishment so having clauses like that would only muddy things more and take away from the point.
As far as the 6 months, I've limited Richie's bet length to 3 months because he's a new account and it's half the amount of time his account has been around. I'm considering making that the rule of thumb going forward to avoid huge bets no one intends to truly keep.

It's all good, can that extra crap. Richie can choose either one. In fact, as long as he hasn't responded yet I suggest winner's choice between AV and sig.

 

[Lead]

It's all good, can that extra crap. Richie can choose either one. In fact, as long as he hasn't responded yet I suggest winner's choice between AV and sig.

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Or Signature Bet (Winners choice)
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

I need you each to quote this post and give a final okay to make it official.

 

[Andy Capp]

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Or Signature Bet (Winners choice)
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

I need you each to quote this post and give a final okay to make it official.

OK

 

[Richie Madano]

I do not object but I must point out a discrepancy and clarify the final part. I said it would be a sig bet but I am ok with AV instead so @Richie Madano may choose before the bet is made official.

Regarding the latter bit, the idea was that if after the result of the election is made official there is a discovery of evidence that cheating was responsible for Trump's victory, I would immediately forego an further penalty and he would instead "pay" double, I.e. 6mo sig or av.

@Lead I’m fine with the terms as written fir avatar.

 

[Richie Madano]

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Or Signature Bet (Winners choice)
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

I need you each to quote this post and give a final okay to make it official.

Ok

 

[Lead]

@Crazy Diamond v. @Richie Madano
1. Donald Trump will serve a 2nd term as President of the United States
2. @Richie Madano - for, @Crazy Diamond - against
3. Tentatively Jan 20, 2021 (Inauguration day)
4. Avatar Or Signature Bet (Winners choice)
5. 3 Months
6. In the event Trump dies during his first term, the bet is null

I need you each to quote this post and give a final okay to make it official.

OK

Ok

ANDDDD NOWWWW from the heart of the War Room Subforum, this prelimary bout is sponsored Sherdog.com. Sherdog.com, "wait we have a political subforum section?"
ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSSSS TIME!
Introducing first, a green belt with an 0-0 record, RICHIE MADANOOOOOOOOO!
And his opponent, a 2GM/c^2 belt hailing from a bunker behind a wall, holding a record of 0-0, but boasting a 100% takedown defense record in reports, presenting CRAZZZYYYY "FIFTYYYYY NINE" DIIIIAMONDDDDDDDD!
Walks up to ref
"I want a good clean bet. No takebacks, no welching. Now go back to your keyboards.... FIGHT:"

(It's official)