The War Room Bet Thread V4

[Rockapotomuss]

OK, you do you want to do the whole official construction? I'm down for this.

1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate votes at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Jack V Savage : against @Rockapotomuss : for
3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months.

 

[Sketch]

<Lmaoo>

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate votes at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Jack V Savage : against @Rockapotomuss : for
3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months.

Dude, are you in the market for a bridge? Can sell you one cheap

 

[LiquidityTrap]

lol!

@Jack V Savage has the gall to accuse me of "taking advantage of morons".....look in the mirror buddy!

 

[Jack V Savage]

1. Hillary Clinton will be in the 2020 Democratic race for president, before or during the Democratic National Convention, by either filing her 2020 candidacy with the FEC or by receiving 300+ delegate votes at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
2. @Jack V Savage : against @Rockapotomuss : for
3. July 16, 2020 or last day of the 2020 Democratic National Convention, or the day when Clinton files for a candidacy with the FEC prior to July 16, 2020, or when one party concedes.
4. Signature bet.
5. 3 months.

@Lead, I accept this.

 

[Jack V Savage]

lol!

@Jack V Savage has the gall to accuse me of "taking advantage of morons".....look in the mirror buddy!

You were trying to get him to bet on Clinton actually being the nominee, which is quite a bit different.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

You were trying to get him to bet on Clinton actually being the nominee, which is quite a bit different.

Doesn't affect the point at all though! You admonish people for "taking advantage of morons" and here you are doing the same thing. Remember when you did it to mcveteran?

Drop the holier-than-thou vibe. You want wins, and I can respect that.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Doesn't affect the point at all though! You admonish people for "taking advantage of morons" and here you are doing the same thing. Remember when you did it to mcveteran?

Drop the holier-than-thou vibe. You want wins, and I can respect that.

I don't want wins, and I'm not mining for them by offering the kind of ridiculous bets you've been trying to get.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I don't want wins

Then why take advantage of a moron, especially after admonishing others for doing the same?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Then why take advantage of a moron, especially after admonishing others for doing the same?

I'm not taking advantage. You were trying to bet him that someone who isn't even running wouldn't win. I'm betting him that someone he thinks will run won't.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I'm not taking advantage. You were trying to bet him that someone who isn't even running wouldn't win. I'm betting him that someone he thinks will run won't.

There is a 0% chance of him winning your bet, as with mine. You know this.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

 

[Jack V Savage]

There is a 0% chance of him winning your bet, as with mine. You know this.

I am the favorite, IMO.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I am the favorite, IMO.

What percentage chance do you assign to him winning?

 

[Jack V Savage]

What percentage chance do you assign to him winning?

Probably similar to what you assigned. But that's the point of betting. We have a prediction that clarifies disagreement. Let's see how it turns out. IMO, your offer (and he'd agree with this--see his relevant comments) was ridiculous. You were trying to take advantage of him being a sucker to get a cheap win. Whatever you think the odds are of me winning, they're much smaller than the odds of you winning the bet you proposed.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

Probably similar to what you assigned.

So...similar to 0%.

Whatever you think the odds are of me winning, they're much smaller than the odds of you winning the bet you proposed.

So...0% is much smaller than 0%? What am I missing?

 

[Jack V Savage]

So...similar to 0%.

So...0% is much smaller than 0%? What am I missing?

I think you know. What are the chances that the Orioles will contend in the AL East next year (defined as, say, being within 10 games of first within the last month)? Not good, right? But what are the chances that they'll win 130 games? Much worse. One is highly improbable, the other crosses the same territory but raises the bar.

 

[LiquidityTrap]

I think you know. What are the chances that the Orioles will contend in the AL East next year (defined as, say, being within 10 games of first within the last month)? Not good, right? But what are the chances that they'll win 130 games? Much worse. One is highly improbable, the other crosses the same territory but raises the bar.

Don't follow baseball. What do you think is your chance of losing this bet? What do you think was my chance of losing?

 

[Limbo Pete]

Jealousy rears its ugly head

 

[Jack V Savage]

Don't follow baseball. What do you think is your chance of losing this bet? What do you think was my chance of losing?

You should still be able to follow the point.

Also, I'd recommend that you follow baseball. It's good practice for evidence-based, anti-biased thinking.