The War Room Bet Thread V3

[waiguoren]

You got offered 2 months

The rankings depend on term length. The longer the term length, the higher I rise in the rankings when I win.

He's already running. You are incapable of negotiating this one in your favor.

Nice try. He hasn't even announced.

What's the longest term you'll accept? Two months indicates failure to have gone through puberty.

Michael Bloomberg's RCP average will exceed 2.0% in their top-line national average
2. For- waiguoren Against- @Fawlty
3. The date of the 2020 DNC, or when Bloomberg drops out of the race, or when the bet condition is met (whichever occurs first)
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is only valid if Bloomberg registers a candidacy with the FEC and appears on primary ballots in at least 20 states.

 

[Fawlty]

1. Michael Bloomberg's RCP average will exceed 2.0% in their top-line national average
2. For- waiguoren Against- @Fawlty
3. The date of the 2020 DNC, or when Bloomberg drops out of the race, or when the bet condition is met (whichever occurs first)
4. Avatar bet
5. 2 months, Waiguoren pays two weeks av up front as vigorish for past welching.

 

[waiguoren]

1. Michael Bloomberg's RCP average will exceed 2.0% in their top-line national average
2. For- waiguoren Against- @Fawlty
3. The date of the 2020 DNC, or when Bloomberg drops out of the race, or when the bet condition is met (whichever occurs first)
4. Avatar bet
5. 2 months, Waiguoren pays two weeks av up front as vigorish for past welching.

Dick tuck noted.

 

[Fawlty]

Dick tuck noted.

 

[waiguoren]

I have to admit, I enjoy it when you post that strange gif.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Not sure there is room for interpretation?

People need to realize at some point that Wai is incapable of betting in good faith lol

 

[Jack V Savage]

People need to realize at some point that Wai is incapable of betting in good faith lol

Here's the Times on it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/roger-stone-trial-guilty.html

Mr. Stone, 67, was convicted in federal court of seven felonies for obstructing the congressional inquiry, lying to investigators under oath and trying to block the testimony of a witness whose account would have exposed his lies. Jurors deliberated for a little over seven hours before convicting him on all counts. Together, the charges carry a maximum prison term of 50 years.

That seems to go right to the heart of it. Plus, if @waiguoren was going to claim victory after Stone was convicted on all counts, the bet should have settled long before the verdict was announced. This seems like a clear loss.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Here's the Times on it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/roger-stone-trial-guilty.html



That seems to go right to the heart of it. Plus, if @waiguoren was going to claim victory after Stone was convicted on all counts, the bet should have settled long before the verdict was announced. This seems like a clear loss.

The thing about Wai is that he seems to bet just to fuel his intellectual insecurity. Trying to trick people into unwinnable bets isn't something to make a career of.

 

[waiguoren]

Here's the Times on it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/roger-stone-trial-guilty.html



That seems to go right to the heart of it. Plus, if @waiguoren was going to claim victory after Stone was convicted on all counts, the bet should have settled long before the verdict was announced. This seems like a clear loss.

I'm beginning to think your brain is failing (maybe it failed long ago). Did you not read special conditions of the bet? For @andnowweknow to win, Stone would have to have been convicted of a crime for colluding with the Russian state. That means conspiracy or espionage or treason, basically. "Collusion" is not a crime. Obviously witness tampering and perjury and obstruction do not count; the bet terms even explicitly rule out perjury.

andnowweknow held out because the bet would have been a push in the event that Stone signed a plea deal for any reason---that's also written into the terms. When the indictment came out six months ago @Lead was ready to call the bet but andnowweknow held out---frankly, it was smart of him because of the possibility of a push.

 

[waiguoren]

That he will win 1? No, I think there is a good chance his lawyer can find a technicality for one of them.

Two or more.


Upon appeal, two or more of the counts Roger Stone was convicted for will be overturned.
2. For- waiguoren Against- @7437
3. The date of the conclusion of Stone's final appeal.
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is only valid if at least one higher court accepts Stone's appeal. If the president pardons Stone, the bet is a push.

 

[7437]

Two or more.


Upon appeal, two or more of the counts Roger Stone was convicted for will be overturned.
2. For- waiguoren Against- @7437
3. The date of the conclusion of Stone's final appeal.
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is only valid if at least one higher court accepts Stone's appeal. If the president pardons Stone, the bet is a push.

Hmmm..... tempting. I dont gamble though. Gracious offer though. I do look forward to seeing if you are correct. You clearly actually believe it, unlike many trolls here.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I'm beginning to think your brain is failing (maybe it failed long ago). Did you not read special conditions of the bet? For @andnowweknow to win, Stone would have to have been convicted of a crime for colluding with the Russian state. That means conspiracy or espionage or treason, basically. "Collusion" is not a crime. Obviously witness tampering and perjury and obstruction do not count; the bet terms even explicitly rule out perjury.

So he was trying to hide evidence of collusion with the Russian state and was convicted of crimes related to that. IMO, you're being a weasel here and trying to win on a technicality after you clearly lost on substance. When winning becomes more important to you than your own honor, you defeat the purpose.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Two or more.


Upon appeal, two or more of the counts Roger Stone was convicted for will be overturned.
2. For- waiguoren Against- @7437
3. The date of the conclusion of Stone's final appeal.
4. Avatar and Signature bet
5. 1 year
6. Bet is only valid if at least one higher court accepts Stone's appeal. If the president pardons Stone, the bet is a push.

I'll take that one except that I want 2 months rather than a year, and I think if higher courts reject Stone's appeal or Trump pardons him, that should be a win for me.

 

[waiguoren]

So he was trying to hide evidence of collusion with the Russian state

Nope.

you're being a weasel here and trying to win on a technicality after you clearly lost on substance

I specifically wrote the bet so that this kind of thing would give me the win. It's not a technicality. The court came nowhere close to establishing that Stone was involved in "Russian collusion" of any kind. He was convicted on process crimes.

if higher courts reject Stone's appeal or Trump pardons him, that should be a win for me.

Nope.

When winning becomes more important to you than your own honor, you defeat the purpose.

I agree. That is why you should stop whining, assuming the reason is that you are unhappy with your loss of champion status.

 

[waiguoren]

@Lead

Andnowweknow hasn't posted in for three days, which is not normal for him.

Remember what happened to my previous victims (konagold and Pelosi2016)? How long should we wait before you can force the signature change?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Nope.

I specifically wrote the bet so that this kind of thing would give me the win. It's not a technicality.

You're admitting that you tried to cheat? Interesting that you'd think I'm jealous (I saw before you edited). A lot of low-character people justify themselves to themselves by thinking that everyone else is like them, but they're just better at it.

Nope.

If his appeal is rejected, isn't that an indication that it's wrong? Likewise if Trump pardons.

This is the difference between us. I see the purpose of a bet as standing behind and testing our beliefs. My belief is that Stone is a crook and was busted, and of course he's going to appeal, but it has no merit. Your belief is hard to tell because you're trying to design a bet that has very little chance of ever settling (to fool people into thinking that you're standing behind it when you know perfectly well that you're just posturing for propaganda purposes) and that gives you OK odds in the off chance that it does settle (because most of the "wai is wrong" scenarios = "no settlement" rather than "wai loses"). This is like when you laughably asserted that Trump would hit 50% approval in his first term but didn't want to make exceptions for the events that could give you cheap wins. The same lack of principle and integrity is apparent in the way you ditch all your stated beliefs to blindly defend your party.

 

[Lead]

@Lead

Andnowweknow hasn't posted in for three days, which is not normal for him.

Remember what happened to my previous victims (konagold and Pelosi2016)? How long should we wait before you can force the signature change?

It been less than 24 hours since I tagged him.

 

[waiguoren]

You're admitting that you tried to cheat?

Nope.

If his appeal is rejected, isn't that an indication that it's wrong? Likewise if Trump pardons.

No, and this is obvious if you know anything about the legal system.

My belief is that Stone is a crook and was busted, and of course he's going to appeal, but it has no merit.

Then your failure to take the bet indicates you aren't confident in the legal reasoning ability of higher courts. Upon successful appeal, you would probably spew some nonsense about "right-wing judges".

 

[Jack V Savage]

Then your failure to take the bet indicates you aren't confident in the legal reasoning ability of higher courts. Upon successful appeal, you would probably spew some nonsense about "right-wing judges".

This is projection. You already whined about the trial being held in D.C. This goes back to what I was saying about low-character people.

 

[waiguoren]

You already whined about the trial being held in D.C.

Wrong. I pointed out that D.C. juries are hopelessly biased. If we had an "attractive girl" contest and you were on the jury, the jury would be biased in favor of that horse-faced gamer girl you lust after. If Tulsi Gabbard appears on Fox News, chances are the host(s) will be biased in her favor. Recognizing bias is an important part of approaching truth.