The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Race 1 at Aqueduct coming up shortly;

1,2,4 / 6 exactas
2 / 6/ 1,4 tris
2 / 1,4 / 6 tris
 
Sharkey said:
A couple of potentially good betting races tomorrow at Santa Anita.

This first one here is race 1, which is the "today's best bet" race selection on HRN for the day;

==========

Race 1 at Santa Anita;

#4 EP - 74.6, LP - 53.3, SP - 71.2, TT - 55.2, MP - 71.5, EL - 65.6, DP - 69.0, ELD - 70.2, SF - 79.7, BT - 91.6, AC - 426.5, PP - 142.0, NF - 48.4, AVG - 101.5 (28.3% = 2.5/1)
#5 EP - 66.0, LP - 55.9, SP - 68.5, TT - 52.1, MP - 67.9, EL - 63.9, DP - 69.3, ELD - 75.7, SF - 67.2, BT - 91.4, AC - 432.1, PP - 138.6, NF - 51.3, AVG - 100.0 (19.9% = 4.0/1)
#1 EP - 69.3, LP - 51.8, SP - 67.6, TT - 53.6, MP - 67.5, EL - 62.6, DP - 66.3, ELD - 73.7, SF - 72.6, BT - 91.8, AC - 431.4, PP - 135.1, NF - 50.5, AVG - 99.5 (17.6% = 4.7/1)
#3 EP - 65.0, LP - 53.8, SP - 66.6, TT - 54.9, MP - 66.9, EL - 61.3, DP - 67.1, ELD - 77.3, SF - 61.0, BT - 90.4, AC - 437.4, PP - 135.3, NF - 54.5, AVG - 99.4 (17.2% = 4.8/1)
#7 EP - 61.7, LP - 54.2, SP - 65.2, TT - 56.3, MP - 65.9, EL - 59.6, DP - 66.6, ELD - 73.5, SF - 61.4, BT - 87.3, AC - 423.0, PP - 133.8, NF - 44.1, AVG - 96.4 (8.5% = 10.8/1)
#6 EP - 62.6, LP - 55.3, SP - 66.4, TT - 49.4, MP - 65.1, EL - 62.6, DP - 67.9, ELD - 73.0, SF - 51.8, BT - 83.1, AC - 400.1, PP - 134.2, NF - 52.2, AVG - 94.1 (4.9% = 19.4/1) *ML favourite*
#8 EP - 76.9, LP - 44.4, SP - 66.8, TT - 47.2, MP - 64.8, EL - 63.6, DP - 61.2, ELD - 56.7, SF - 72.4, BT - 77.1, AC - 383.0, PP - 127.3, NF - 48.1, AVG - 91.5 (2.7% = 36.7/1)
#2 EP - 50.0, LP - 55.9, SP - 60.4, TT - 54.1, MP - 60.5, EL - 55.7, DP - 65.3, ELD - 59.4, SF - 44.0, BT - 68.4, AC - 385.8, PP - 127.0, NF - 42.9, AVG - 86.9 (86.9% = 111.0/1)

==========

The 2nd one is race 6, and it is the DRF 'race of the day;

==========

Race 6 at Santa Anita;

#4 EP - 77.4, LP - 55.4, SP - 73.9, TT - 56.2, MP - 74.5, EL - 67.9, DP - 71.7, ELD - 70.2, SF - 87.3, BT - 94.5, AC - 507.6, PP - 147.7, NF - 46.4, AVG - 110.0 (42.5% = 1.4/1)
#1 EP - 68.1, LP - 58.7, SP - 71.3, TT - 53.9, MP - 71.2, EL - 66.0, DP - 72.5, ELD - 74.3, SF - 74.2, BT - 93.0, AC - 491.2, PP - 145.1, NF - 54.5, AVG - 107.2 (21.9% = 3.6/1)
#2 EP - 75.1, LP - 57.8, SP - 74.3, TT - 56.8, MP - 75.0, EL - 68.0, DP - 73.4, ELD - 75.4, SF - 74.6, BT - 94.1, AC - 474.5, PP - 149.9, NF - 33.1, AVG - 106.3 (17.7% = 4.7/1)
#7 EP - 68.3, LP - 53.0, SP - 67.8, TT - 55.5, MP - 68.3, EL - 62.3, DP - 67.2, ELD - 76.4, SF - 77.7, BT - 96.1, AC - 452.3, PP - 136.8, NF - 52.2, AVG - 102.6 (7.4% = 12.6/1)
#5 EP - 76.8, LP - 46.1, SP - 67.8, TT - 53.3, MP - 67.6, EL - 62.9, DP - 62.8, ELD - 59.0, SF - 85.1, BT - 84.0, AC - 470.5, PP - 131.8, NF - 44.7, AVG - 101.0 (5.0% = 18.8/1)
#3 EP - 70.0, LP - 49.6, SP - 66.6, TT - 51.5, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.2, DP - 64.4, ELD - 70.3, SF - 75.5, BT - 90.0, AC - 444.4, PP - 131.6, NF - 48.7, AVG - 99.3 (3.4% = 28.7/1)
#6 EP - 62.2, LP - 59.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 52.6, MP - 68.1, EL - 63.7, DP - 71.2, ELD - 68.1, SF - 67.7, BT - 85.1, AC - 423.5, PP - 140.7, NF - 36.3, AVG - 97.4 (2.1% = 45.5/1) *ML favourite*

==========

I pulled out the old formula and implemented into the AC category just because each race looks to have a very beatable favourite, and I'd like to use any weapon I can to try to beat them. So I did. I've done this a number of times over the past month in these type of attack races, and it's worked out well for me.
Click to expand...

Sharkey said:
Race 1 plans;

- 4,5 / 1,3,4,5 in $5 exactas
- 4 / 1,3,5 / 1,3,5 in $2 tris
- win bet the best value (if any) from my top 4
Click to expand...

I'll have to call an audible in race 1 here as the #6 isn't taking nearly the money his morning line odds said he would, and also the #1 is getting way overbet to my liking (current 9/5 favourite)

As it looks right now with 5 minutes to post, the #3, #4, #5 are the horses I'll be using.

- #3, #4, #5 exacta box (#4 is slightly overbet, but I have two value equalizers+ along with it)
- #4 / #3, #5 / #3, #5 and #3, #5 / #4 / #3, #5 trifectas
- win bet the #5
 
Sharkey said:
Race 6 plans;

- 1,4 / 1,4,7 in $5 exactas
- 4 / 1 / 2,7 in $2 tris
- 4 / 2,7 / 1 in $2 tris
- win bet the best value (if any) from my top 3


Those are based on the morning lines and assuming no scratches, so they can change of course.
Click to expand...

Based on the will pays the #2 is going to go off favourite here and then followed by the #6 who I'm completely against. I think I'm going to keep these trifecta plays as is, though, since I really don't have another option behind that one and it allows for a little extra insurance for only a few bucks extra ($4). Plus I'm getting double, even triple the value on the other three horses I'm using this race as it stands now with just under 10 minutes to post.
 
I double win bet this race as well with the #4 (for $10) and the #1 (for $5).
 
Big payouts that race with the #5 winning at 25/1, the #1 placing at 11/1, the #2 at short odds, and then the #3 in 4th at 50/1. The super was about 3500/1 in only a 7 horse field for the lucky few out there.
 
Sharkey said:
#4 EP - 77.4, LP - 55.4, SP - 73.9, TT - 56.2, MP - 74.5, EL - 67.9, DP - 71.7, ELD - 70.2, SF - 87.3, BT - 94.5, AC - 507.6, PP - 147.7, NF - 46.4, AVG - 110.0 (42.5% = 1.4/1)
#1 EP - 68.1, LP - 58.7, SP - 71.3, TT - 53.9, MP - 71.2, EL - 66.0, DP - 72.5, ELD - 74.3, SF - 74.2, BT - 93.0, AC - 491.2, PP - 145.1, NF - 54.5, AVG - 107.2 (21.9% = 3.6/1)
#2 EP - 75.1, LP - 57.8, SP - 74.3, TT - 56.8, MP - 75.0, EL - 68.0, DP - 73.4, ELD - 75.4, SF - 74.6, BT - 94.1, AC - 474.5, PP - 149.9, NF - 33.1, AVG - 106.3 (17.7% = 4.7/1)
#7 EP - 68.3, LP - 53.0, SP - 67.8, TT - 55.5, MP - 68.3, EL - 62.3, DP - 67.2, ELD - 76.4, SF - 77.7, BT - 96.1, AC - 452.3, PP - 136.8, NF - 52.2, AVG - 102.6 (7.4% = 12.6/1)
#5 EP - 76.8, LP - 46.1, SP - 67.8, TT - 53.3, MP - 67.6, EL - 62.9, DP - 62.8, ELD - 59.0, SF - 85.1, BT - 84.0, AC - 470.5, PP - 131.8, NF - 44.7, AVG - 101.0 (5.0% = 18.8/1)
#3 EP - 70.0, LP - 49.6, SP - 66.6, TT - 51.5, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.2, DP - 64.4, ELD - 70.3, SF - 75.5, BT - 90.0, AC - 444.4, PP - 131.6, NF - 48.7, AVG - 99.3 (3.4% = 28.7/1)
#6 EP - 62.2, LP - 59.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 52.6, MP - 68.1, EL - 63.7, DP - 71.2, ELD - 68.1, SF - 67.7, BT - 85.1, AC - 423.5, PP - 140.7, NF - 36.3, AVG - 97.4 (2.1% = 45.5/1) *ML favourite*

==========
Click to expand...

I got the place horse in order for this race, as well as the show horse. Best of all I ranked the morning line favourite last, and it went out there and shit the bed in finishing last by about 20 lengths at 8/5. That trifecta of sorts has got to be worth a consolation prize, no?
 
Race 4 at Delta Downs coming up in a few minutes;

#1 EP - 63.6, LP - 46.0, SP - 61.0, TT - 51.7, MP - 60.5, EL - 57.0, DP - 62.7, ELD - 72.3, SF - 66.4, BT - 83.0, AC - 77.7, PP - 127.5, NF - 37.1, AVG - 66.6
#3 EP - 68.3, LP - 42.8, SP - 61.4, TT - 48.3, MP - 59.9, EL - 58.3, DP - 65.3, ELD - 63.6, SF - 72.2, BT - 83.8, AC - 66.7, PP - 134.9, NF - 42.0, AVG - 66.7
#4 EP - 67.7, LP - 45.7, SP - 62.9, TT - 49.3, MP - 61.6, EL - 59.4, DP - 65.7, ELD - 67.7, SF - 69.3, BT - 83.4, AC - 70.9, PP - 134.7, NF - 40.3, AVG - 67.6
#5 EP - 59.7, LP - 45.0, SP - 58.5, TT - 46.2, MP - 56.4, EL - 56.1, DP - 59.4, ELD - 75.0, SF - 46.1, BT - 68.3, AC - 65.6, PP - 120.3, NF - 49.9, AVG - 62.0
#6 EP - 67.1, LP - 39.1, SP - 58.5, TT - 46.2, MP - 56.4, EL - 56.1, DP - 63.2, ELD - 60.0, SF - 71.3, BT - 81.6, AC - 57.2, PP - 131.6, NF - 35.1, AVG - 63.3
#7 EP - 66.1, LP - 42.8, SP - 60.3, TT - 49.3, MP - 59.1, EL - 57.0, DP - 63.6, ELD - 65.8, SF - 67.8, BT - 81.3, AC - 65.1, PP - 131.0, NF - 38.6, AVG - 65.2
#8 EP - 62.4, LP - 49.1, SP - 62.4, TT - 51.0, MP - 61.6, EL - 58.5, DP - 62.8, ELD - 77.4, SF - 55.3, BT - 76.6, AC - 57.8, PP - 126.5, NF - 36.5, AVG - 64.5
#9 EP - 58.9, LP - 37.5, SP - 53.3, TT - 40.8, MP - 49.7, EL - 52.7, DP - 56.5, ELD - 66.4, SF - 64.1, BT - 78.7, AC - 44.6, PP - 116.5, NF - 41.5, AVG - 58.6
#10 EP - 67.1, LP - 48.8, SP - 64.6, TT - 51.0, MP - 63.8, EL - 60.5, DP - 66.3, ELD - 72.3, SF - 72.1, BT - 87.5, AC - 80.3, PP - 134.7, NF - 34.2, AVG - 69.5
#11 EP - 68.3, LP - 50.7, SP - 66.4, TT - 51.0, MP - 65.5, EL - 62.2, DP - 67.7, ELD - 73.5, SF - 73.6, BT - 89.1, AC - 83.0, PP - 137.4, NF - 43.8, AVG - 71.7

- 10, 11 / 10, 11 / 1, 3, 4 / 1, 3, 4 in tris and supers
- 10, 11 exacta box
- 10 to win
 
#6 over #4, #7 in a pair of $5 exactas coming up in race 8 at Delta Downs. The #2 will be the 2nd choice so I'd like to beat it out of the top two.

#1 EP - 66.8, LP - 42.7, SP - 60.6, TT - 49.1, MP - 59.3, EL - 57.3, DP - 64.1, ELD - 64.9, SF - 61.9, BT - 76.4, AC - 364.1, PP - 132.2, NF - 30.2, AVG - 86.9
#2 EP - 65.6, LP - 51.4, SP - 65.5, TT - 47.3, MP - 63.6, EL - 62.3, DP - 65.9, ELD - 77.0, SF - 74.1, BT - 91.1, AC - 406.9, PP - 132.9, NF - 44.7, AVG - 96.0
#4 EP - 65.8, LP - 51.4, SP - 65.5, TT - 51.4, MP - 64.8, EL - 61.3, DP - 66.1, ELD - 76.9, SF - 66.2, BT - 84.8, AC - 428.1, PP - 133.1, NF - 49.3, AVG - 97.3
#6 EP - 68.7, LP - 53.4, SP - 68.3, TT - 50.6, MP - 67.3, EL - 64.1, DP - 68.9, ELD - 76.4, SF - 72.0, BT - 89.2, AC - 458.6, PP - 139.0, NF - 49.9, AVG - 102.0
#7 EP - 65.9, LP - 50.8, SP - 65.2, TT - 49.2, MP - 63.9, EL - 61.6, DP - 66.0, ELD - 75.9, SF - 67.7, BT - 85.6, AC - 407.6, PP - 133.2, NF - 44.9, AVG - 95.2
#8 EP - 66.8, LP - 48.0, SP - 63.9, TT - 49.6, MP - 62.7, EL - 60.2, DP - 65.8, ELD - 71.6, SF - 68.4, BT - 84.3, AC - 382.1, PP - 133.9, NF - 45.2, AVG - 92.5
 
Just my luck. The #7 gets hammered around the turn while starting it's move forward (horse that did it was DQ'd), and then the #4 gets beat by a head by the #2 for 2nd. The #6 was daylights the best and ran like it.
 
Race 1 at Tampa;

- #4 to win
- #4 / #2, #6 and #2, #6 / #4 exactas
 
Got the #4 home 1st at almost 10/1, but I had a 35/1 exacta ruined in the last fucking stride when the #3 just nipped the #2 at the line.
 
#3 to win in race 2 at Aqueduct coming up in a couple of minutes.
 
Race 3 at Tampa coming up in a couple minutes;

- #4 to win
- #4 / #5, #6 and #5, #6 / #4 exactas
 
Sharkey said:
Race 3 at Tampa coming up in a couple minutes;

- #4 to win
- #4 / #5, #6 and #5, #6 / #4 exactas
Click to expand...

Also keyed the #4 in the top 2 spots with the #2, #5, #6 in some trifectas
 
So much for that bet. Was going to key the #6 in this race at Tampa, but it started freaking out in the gate just before start. Should be scratched.
 
Race 6 at Aqueduct;

#1 EP - 74.3, LP - 53.3, SP - 71.0, TT - 52.1, MP - 70.4, EL - 66.2, DP - 73.1, ELD - 70.6, SF - 76.6, BT - 90.3, AC - 90.5, PP - 148.8, NF - 42.9, AVG - 75.4
#2 EP - 68.0, LP - 55.7, SP - 69.4, TT - 52.6, MP - 69.0, EL - 64.5, DP - 69.1, ELD - 78.1, SF - 74.7, BT - 92.0, AC - 95.3, PP - 138.5, NF - 56.8, AVG - 75.7
#3 EP - 69.3, LP - 53.3, SP - 68.5, TT - 51.4, MP - 67.8, EL - 64.1, DP - 69.4, ELD - 75.6, SF - 74.0, BT - 90.4, AC - 89.5, PP - 140.1, NF - 39.4, AVG - 73.3
#4 EP - 65.4, LP - 54.7, SP - 67.4, TT - 50.5, MP - 66.4, EL - 63.3, DP - 66.8, ELD - 76.6, SF - 71.4, BT - 88.8, AC - 90.3, PP - 133.5, NF - 45.2, AVG - 72.3
#5 EP - 65.9, LP - 56.6, SP - 68.8, TT - 50.0, MP - 67.7, EL - 64.8, DP - 67.8, ELD - 74.8, SF - 69.3, BT - 86.4, AC - 92.8, PP - 135.0, NF - 49.3, AVG - 73.0
#6 EP - 72.4, LP - 50.5, SP - 68.3, TT - 52.1, MP - 67.8, EL - 63.7, DP - 70.8, ELD - 69.0, SF - 80.8, BT - 92.9, AC - 85.9, PP - 144.6, NF - 42.9, AVG - 74.0
#7 EP - 66.6, LP - 50.5, SP - 65.4, TT - 50.2, MP - 64.4, EL - 61.5, DP - 66.4, ELD - 74.9, SF - 56.1, BT - 76.1, AC - 83.0, PP - 134.4, NF - 30.7, AVG - 67.7

Going with;

#1, #2 / #1, #2, #3, #6 / #1, #2, #3, #6 exactas and tris. The #2 is also currently 5/1, but I'll wait a couple minutes before deciding on a win bet on it.
 
Came back #1, #6, #7, #2. Plus $37 on the race, but was only a length away from a 90/1 tri.
 
*Edit*

Change of plans this race
 
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==========

G3 Tampa Bay Stakes (race 8 at Tampa);

#4 EP - 83.8, LP - 88.4, SP - 97.8, TT - 60.9, MP - 99.5, EL - 88.9, DP - 104.3, ELD - 53.0, SF - 103.0, BT - 85.9, AC - 189.5, PP - 205.8, NF - 40.6, AVG - 100.1 = 1.8/1
#2 EP - 80.4, LP - 90.1, SP - 97.2, TT - 62.0, MP - 99.1, EL - 88.1, DP - 105.1, ELD - 47.5, SF - 95.6, BT - 78.2, AC - 200.6, PP - 206.3, NF - 45.2, AVG - 99.6 = 2.2/1
#3 EP - 84.3, LP - 85.0, SP - 96.0, TT - 61.5, MP - 97.8, EL - 87.1, DP - 101.3, ELD - 57.7, SF - 82.6, BT - 82.0, AC - 178.1, PP - 201.1, NF - 48.1, AVG - 97.1 = 4.7/1
#7 EP - 85.3, LP - 77.1, SP - 91.6, TT - 56.7, MP - 92.0, EL - 84.2, DP - 94.1, ELD - 68.7, SF - 94.1, BT - 95.9, AC - 146.6, PP - 188.0, NF - 41.2, AVG - 93.5 = 12.4/1 *9/5 ML favourite*
#5 EP - 84.2, LP - 72.2, SP - 87.9, TT - 54.9, MP - 87.9, EL - 81.3, DP - 89.2, ELD - 73.7, SF - 90.4, BT - 98.8, AC - 130.4, PP - 178.9, NF - 46.4, AVG - 90.5 = 26.3/1
#8 EP - 76.7, LP - 74.3, SP - 85.4, TT - 53.3, MP - 85.0, EL - 79.4, DP - 89.3, ELD - 63.4, SF - 83.9, BT - 87.4, AC - 146.4, PP - 176.1, NF - 44.1, AVG - 88.1 = 47.2/1
#6 EP - 77.4, LP - 70.7, SP - 83.5, TT - 52.6, MP - 82.9, EL - 77.8, DP - 86.1, ELD - 68.7, SF - 89.9, BT - 94.3, AC - 132.7, PP - 170.7, NF - 46.4, AVG - 87.2 = 58.7/1
#1 EP - 74.3, LP - 64.5, SP - 78.1, TT - 49.0, MP - 76.5, EL - 73.7, DP - 79.5, ELD - 73.4, SF - 83.8, BT - 95.9, AC - 113.4, PP - 157.6, NF - 45.2, AVG - 81.9 = 208.4/1

==========

G3 Sam F Davis Stakes (race 11 at Tampa);

#9 EP - 90.7, LP - 63.6, SP - 85.9, TT - 53.5, MP - 85.5, EL - 79.8, DP - 82.9, ELD - 67.0, SF - 107.8, BT - 99.7, AC - 110.1, PP - 170.5, NF - 44.2, AVG - 87.6 (104.5/96.6) = 2.4/1
#6 EP - 78.9, LP - 61.6, SP - 78.6, TT - 52.9, MP - 78.1, EL - 73.1, DP - 77.9, ELD - 76.3, SF - 77.0, BT - 95.8, AC - 105.5, PP - 157.5, NF - 52.5, AVG - 82.0 (90.8/86.9) = 8.1/1
#3 EP - 87.4, LP - 59.5, SP - 81.6, TT - 52.8, MP - 81.0, EL - 75.9, DP - 78.1, ELD - 65.1, SF - 94.2, BT - 92.9, AC - 101.9, PP - 160.6, NF - 31.0, AVG - 81.7 (90.6/85.5) = 8.2/1 *5/2 ML favourite*
#8 EP - 74.2, LP - 65.8, SP - 78.8, TT - 50.1, MP - 77.5, EL - 74.1, DP - 80.6, ELD - 71.7, SF - 80.6, BT - 93.2, AC - 108.2, PP - 159.8, NF - 52.4, AVG - 82.1 (90.2/88.7) = 8.5/1
#1 EP - 71.2, LP - 66.7, SP - 77.9, TT - 53.0, MP - 77.5, EL - 72.4, DP - 80.8, ELD - 67.5, SF - 77.5, BT - 88.4, AC - 114.3, PP - 159.8, NF - 50.4, AVG - 81.3 (88.3/88.2) = 10.1/1
#7 EP - 77.9, LP - 62.9, SP - 78.8, TT - 48.6, MP - 77.1, EL - 74.5, DP - 78.8, ELD - 72.9, SF - 81.9, BT - 94.7, AC - 101.0, PP - 157.5, NF - 51.9, AVG - 81.4 (87.4/85.5) = 10.9/1
#5 EP - 73.1, LP - 61.0, SP - 75.3, TT - 49.6, MP - 73.9, EL - 70.9, DP - 75.9, ELD - 76.5, SF - 69.8, BT - 93.1, AC - 99.4, PP - 151.2, NF - 54.3, AVG - 78.8 (82.3/80.8) = 16.8/1
#4 EP - 81.9, LP - 56.8, SP - 77.1, TT - 53.7, MP - 76.9, EL - 71.5, DP - 74.1, ELD - 67.3, SF - 85.2, BT - 91.2, AC - 98.7, PP - 152.5, NF - 44.4, AVG - 79.3 (82.2/79.3) = 16.9/1
#2 EP - 81.9, LP - 52.6, SP - 74.4, TT - 45.3, MP - 71.9, EL - 71.3, DP - 70.2, ELD - 62.1, SF - 88.6, BT - 88.0, AC - 78.8, PP - 143.5, NF - 51.7, AVG - 75.4 (77.6/74.0) = 24.7/1
#10 EP - 72.4, LP - 55.3, SP - 71.3, TT - 47.8, MP - 69.5, EL - 67.7, DP - 70.3, ELD - 70.4, SF - 65.3, BT - 86.1, AC - 87.2, PP - 141.2, NF - 32.8, AVG - 72.1 (72.5/73.8) = 37.5/1

==========
 
Early plans for race 8;

- #4, #2, #3 exacta box
- win bet the #2


Early plans for race 11;

- win bet the #9 (8/1 ML)
- #9 / #6, #8, #1 and #6, #8 / #9 exactas
- #9 / #6, #8, #1 / #6, #3, #8, #1, #7 trifectas
 
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