The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Sep 6, 2018.

  1. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    This sucks. Have to get these plays in early since my wife just called a bit ago and wants me to pick her up from the next town over.

    Both win bets are for $8, exactas for $2, and trifectas for $1. Should be a nice round $50 in total.
     
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  2. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Race 8 came back #2, #3, #4, #7 for the win and exacta
    Race 9 came back #9, #6, #8, #1 for the win, exacta and tri

    $50 risked and got a return of $347.30.
     
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  3. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    HRN's race of the day for today;

    ==========

    Race 8 at Aqueduct (Biogio's Rose Stakes);

    #8 EP - 84.6, LP - 70.4, SP - 86.9, TT - 54.7, MP - 86.9, EL - 80.4, DP - 87.6, ELD - 76.4, SF - 100.8, BT - 105.2, AC - 123.0, PP - 176.2, NF - 42.9, AVG - 90.5 (94.5 / 92.7 = 31.7% / 55.7%) = 2.2/1
    #2 EP - 80.7, LP - 71.5, SP - 85.7, TT - 59.4, MP - 87.0, EL - 78.0, DP - 87.7, ELD - 71.0, SF - 83.8, BT - 93.9, AC - 132.2, PP - 176.4, NF - 33.6, AVG - 87.8 (91.1 / 90.7 = 18.5% / 37.4%) = 4.4/1
    #5 EP - 83.0, LP - 67.2, SP - 84.2, TT - 55.8, MP - 84.5, EL - 77.6, DP - 84.2, ELD - 78.8, SF - 88.1, BT - 102.2, AC - 119.4, PP - 170.4, NF - 26.1, AVG - 86.3 (88.7 / 87.6 = 12.7% / 25.8%) = 6.9/1
    #7 EP - 85.8, LP - 63.4, SP - 83.2, TT - 54.3, MP - 83.1, EL - 77.0, DP - 81.3, ELD - 71.6, SF - 92.6, BT - 97.8, AC - 110.8, PP - 166.0, NF - 52.8, AVG - 86.1 (87.4 / 85.2 = 10.3% / 20.2%) = 8.7/1
    #1 EP - 84.3, LP - 63.2, SP - 82.3, TT - 55.2, MP - 82.5, EL - 76.0, DP - 80.8, ELD - 72.8, SF - 90.7, BT - 98.2, AC - 111.8, PP - 164.9, NF - 48.1, AVG - 85.5 (86.5 / 84.8 = 9.0% / 18.4%) = 10.2/1
    #3 EP - 80.3, LP - 68.7, SP - 83.8, TT - 54.9, MP - 83.9, EL - 77.4, DP - 85.0, ELD - 74.2, SF - 74.6, BT - 93.0, AC - 120.6, PP - 170.5, NF - 41.2, AVG - 85.2 (86.5 / 86.6 = 9.0% / 20.6%) = 10.3/1
    #4 EP - 77.2, LP - 66.7, SP - 80.9, TT - 55.2, MP - 81.1, EL - 74.7, DP - 82.3, ELD - 73.5, SF - 84.7, BT - 96.4, AC - 117.7, PP - 165.1, NF - 36.5, AVG - 84.0 (84.3 / 84.6 = 6.3% / 15.5%) = 14.8/1
    #6 EP - 81.2, LP - 57.0, SP - 76.9, TT - 49.8, MP - 75.5, EL - 72.3, DP - 74.2, ELD - 68.3, SF - 79.7, BT - 89.9, AC - 93.1, PP - 151.2, NF - 49.3, AVG - 78.3 (78.6 / 77.3 = 2.6% / 6.5%) = 37.9/1

    ==========
     
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  4. BluntTrauma21

    BluntTrauma21 Broner Brody / Pulev Posse

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    Nice cash, buddy!
     
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  5. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    *Delete*
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019
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  6. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Cheers my man. I had a really good day yesterday. Bet 7 races in total and cashed on 5 of them (1 trifecta, 2 exactas, 4 wins bets, and then 1 other that placed at good odds). Good times. The day before was pretty good too (just short of +$100 on Friday on that day). The couple of days before these last were tough, though.

    I did cost myself a lot of money in that Derby prep race yesterday even though I did get a nice payoff. I don't know if you saw my original post and plans that I ended up editing out, Blunt, but I was going to attack that race pretty big (for me anyways). $30 win bet on the #9, $5 exactas, $2 trifectas, and $1 supers. I had $120 in wagers planned, and if I would have stuck with what I laid out originally I would have hit everything to the tune of somewhere between $1500 and $1600 return (the super was 900/1-ish). I got cold feet and changed the plans. My wife calling me to pick her up also cost me some money as I would have went in with a little more than what I ended up doing. But hey, I'll happily take what I got in the end.
     
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  7. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    This is great. I've been posting over at HRN for the last couple weeks since this thread is all but dead, and nobody over there can figure out how the #9 Well Defined won this race. The HRN poll over there had him as a 30/1 horse in fact before the race whereas I had him as a 5/2 horse. Basically nobody over there gave him a chance. Nor did they at PA it appears as nobody mentioned him before the race over there either. "It was a fluke", "The race was fixed", "He only won cause he got the early lead". Well, no shit, Sherlock. Who the hell did you people expect to get the early lead? Perhaps the horse with the highest EP rating in the field and had proven himself the fastest early horse in the race? Haha. I love it. And these people are my competition in the pools.

    On second thought, how the hell did I make this horse by far the most likely winner of the race and give him fair odds of 5/2 after he had just lost by 12 lengths in his last start and 21 in the race before that? Haha. I love it. Good times. All of 2019 has been good times so far actually thanks to me being much more selective in what races to play and only looking at ones involving false favourites.
     
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  8. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    That's awesome Shark. Way to go bud.
     
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  9. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Cheers T.

    All you need is a decent enough system with sound, logical reasoning behind it while avoiding inclusions that produce negative returns because they're way overbet by the public (jockey & trainer stats, breeding, speed figures, workout times, etc), and then also discipline to wait for good betting opportunities. You know me. I've been preaching being unique on here ever since I started. I've always had that part down pat. It's the discipline part that I struggled with because I got into a bad habit of betting most of the races I did for no other reason than the fact that I did them. I was basically trying to make something out of nothing way too many times.

    e.g. These are the only types of races I look to bet now. Races where I see bad favourites (for Sunday).

    ==========

    Race 2 at Aqueduct (10:22);

    #2 EP - 77.1, LP - 61.4, SP - 77.5, TT - 54.9, MP - 77.6, EL - 71.5, DP - 77.2, ELD - 77.9, SF - 96.0, BT - 104.6, AC - 108.4, PP - 156.4, NF - 47.6, AVG - 83.7 / 83.4
    #7 EP - 81.8, LP - 60.4, SP - 79.3, TT - 56.0, MP - 79.7, EL - 72.9, DP - 77.5, ELD - 71.9, SF - 93.4, BT - 98.4, AC - 108.3, PP - 158.7, NF - 47.6, AVG - 83.5 / 82.5
    #5 EP - 78.0, LP - 60.8, SP - 77.6, TT - 49.4, MP - 76.2, EL - 73.1, DP - 76.9, ELD - 76.2, SF - 88.2, BT - 100.1, AC - 98.8, PP - 154.6, NF - 49.3, AVG - 81.5 / 81.3
    #1 EP - 72.0, LP - 59.2, SP - 73.5, TT - 52.0, MP - 72.9, EL - 68.6, DP - 73.9, ELD - 77.7, SF - 76.6, BT - 96.8, AC - 100.1, PP - 148.2, NF - 38.3, AVG - 77.7 / 77.7
    #3 EP - 77.9, LP - 58.5, SP - 76.1, TT - 47.1, MP - 74.0, EL - 72.4, DP - 74.7, ELD - 73.4, SF - 75.7, BT - 92.8, AC - 91.4, PP - 150.2, NF - 37.1, AVG - 77.0 / 76.7 *2/1 ML favourite*
    #6 EP - 78.4, LP - 55.0, SP - 74.2, TT - 48.3, MP - 72.5, EL - 70.2, DP - 71.6, ELD - 68.6, SF - 80.3, BT - 90.4, AC - 87.6, PP - 145.5, NF - 42.9, AVG - 75.8 / 74.9
    #4 EP - 81.1, LP - 51.8, SP - 73.6, TT - 49.0, MP - 72.1, EL - 69.5, DP - 69.3, ELD - 61.9, SF - 83.1, BT - 85.7, AC - 83.3, PP - 142.8, NF - 35.4, AVG - 73.7 / 72.1

    ==========

    Race 3 at Fair Grounds (11:26);

    #5 EP - 77.8, LP - 50.8, SP - 71.3, TT - 50.9, MP - 70.4, EL - 66.8, DP - 75.0, ELD - 64.0, SF - 84.9, BT - 93.9, AC - 84.6, PP - 154.4, NF - 41.8, AVG - 75.9 / 72.2
    #3 EP - 71.9, LP - 52.6, SP - 69.4, TT - 51.0, MP - 68.5, EL - 65.0, DP - 71.1, ELD - 72.1, SF - 61.3, BT - 79.0, AC - 87.7, PP - 144.5, NF - 53.4, AVG - 72.9 / 71.9
    #2 EP - 66.7, LP - 55.1, SP - 68.3, TT - 50.7, MP - 67.3, EL - 64.0, DP - 67.9, ELD - 77.5, SF - 71.0, BT - 88.8, AC - 91.2, PP - 135.9, NF - 29.0, AVG - 71.9 / 72.6
    #6 EP - 68.3, LP - 53.9, SP - 68.4, TT - 48.3, MP - 66.8, EL - 64.8, DP - 68.8, ELD - 77.4, SF - 74.0, BT - 91.2, AC - 85.7, PP - 138.5, NF - 27.8, AVG - 71.8 / 71.9
    #7 EP - 70.0, LP - 51.3, SP - 67.6, TT - 51.3, MP - 66.8, EL - 63.2, DP - 69.3, ELD - 72.4, SF - 72.3, BT - 87.7, AC - 86.0, PP - 140.7, NF - 34.8, AVG - 71.7 / 70.6
    #4 EP - 76.0, LP - 49.7, SP - 69.7, TT - 52.0, MP - 69.1, EL - 65.0, DP - 73.3, ELD - 64.3, SF - 74.9, BT - 86.2, AC - 84.4, PP - 150.8, NF - 11.6, AVG - 71.3 / 68.0 *2/1 ML favourite*
    #8 EP - 70.2, LP - 49.8, SP - 66.8, TT - 50.7, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.6, DP - 68.9, ELD - 70.4, SF - 69.8, BT - 84.8, AC - 82.6, PP - 140.5, NF - 42.3, AVG - 71.2 / 70.3
    #1 EP - 72.9, LP - 47.9, SP - 67.0, TT - 49.0, MP - 65.6, EL - 63.3, DP - 70.4, ELD - 65.3, SF - 71.0, BT - 83.6, AC - 76.9, PP - 144.7, NF - 41.2, AVG - 70.7 / 67.8

    ==========
     
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  10. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    This is why I deleted my Risen Star rundown a few posts above. I had the favourite as the most likely winner and by a bit of a margin over my 2nd ranked horse. It's not a race I'm looking to invest anything in at all save for maybe a small recreational win bet on one of my next three most likely if they go off at 12/1 or higher (have their fair odds all between 8/1 and 10/1). Otherwise I'll pass completely.
     
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  11. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Actually there is a horse in the Risen Star later today that has been hyped to the moon this past week because of group think/parroting. All because he made a "big run" late in a maiden race against a slow 0-for-10 maiden who finished 2nd to him that race, and then the even slower horse who finished 3rd that race who came back to finish last by almost 20 lengths in his last race this past weekend. The hype horse is the #9 Country House. He's 20/1 on the morning line. He'll go off closer to 5/1 by post time because there's a lot of people in the pools who can't think for themselves.

    "Oh you like him? I guess I like him too."

    "If you like him then so will I."

    "Well, if everybody is on this horse I'll pick him too."

    Basically they're picking him because they have no clue what they're doing and have to resort to parroting someone else's opinion not realizing that the opinion they're parroting is from someone who is very, very, very likely to be one of the 98% who get negative returns on their bets in this game. It's funny. It's also great since, again, this is my competition in the pools.

    For the record, I have Country House as a 30/1 horse on my fair value line (ranks 11th of 14th on the win end) who profiles just a little bit better than that when it comes to filling a spot at the bottom of a tri or super as he does have a bit of a look as a suck up horse. But for the win spot? He'd have to improve a ton this race from what he's shown in the past. Do so against a much larger field than what he's ever faced before, and while coming from the back of a crowded pack as he is a closer. He'll also have to avoid missing the break which he has done in each of his races so far. And he'd have to do all this against a field that is a whole hell of a lot better than the 0-for-10 maiden, and the other maiden who just got whipped by 20 lengths in his return race after losing to Country House. Today he's going against graded stakes winners (and others who showed well in graded stakes, including the BC weekend), ungraded stakes winners, and high level allowance horses.

    "I'll take 5/1 on Country House." (actual quote from some people albeit I'm paraphrasing them all into one)

    Oh, will you now?

    *snickers*

    Sorry. I've been feeling good. Probably too good. It's about time for a humbling I do believe and I know that.
     
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  12. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    T types out 7 words in response to me, so what do I do? Type out about 7 million words in response to him. Haha. Ah fuck. Sorry bud.
     
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    I'll just throw this back up here just in case I get the race really wrong and one of you guys want to laugh at me;

    ==========

    G2 Risen Star Stakes (Race 12 at Fair Grounds on Sat, Feb 16th);

    #14 EP - 80.5, LP - 68.2, SP - 83.5, TT - 53.1, MP - 83.1, EL - 77.7, DP - 84.5, ELD - 75.1, SF - 79.3, BT - 95.6, AC - 116.9, PP - 169.2, NF - 56.5, AVG - 86.4 (91.9 / 90.3)
    #8 EP - 80.0, LP - 64.3, SP - 80.9, TT - 52.6, MP - 80.3, EL - 75.3, DP - 80.8, ELD - 78.6, SF - 91.3, BT - 103.4, AC - 109.7, PP - 162.7, NF - 43.2, AVG - 84.9 (87.8 / 86.0)
    #15 EP - 79.1, LP - 64.0, SP - 80.2, TT - 51.8, MP - 79.4, EL - 74.9, DP - 80.2, ELD - 78.8, SF - 92.7, BT - 104.1, AC - 107.9, PP - 161.2, NF - 50.1, AVG - 85.0 (87.4 / 85.6)
    #10 EP - 75.0, LP - 70.7, SP - 82.3, TT - 50.0, MP - 81.0, EL - 77.4, DP - 85.5, ELD - 66.2, SF - 77.5, BT - 87.3, AC - 116.4, PP - 168.2, NF - 48.1, AVG - 83.5 (87.3 / 88.0)
    #5 EP - 80.7, LP - 63.9, SP - 80.9, TT - 51.0, MP - 79.9, EL - 75.8, DP - 80.6, ELD - 77.5, SF - 77.3, BT - 96.9, AC - 106.6, PP - 162.1, NF - 45.2, AVG - 83.0 (84.4 / 83.6)
    #3 EP - 82.3, LP - 58.3, SP - 78.3, TT - 54.5, MP - 78.3, EL - 72.4, DP - 75.7, ELD - 68.8, SF - 97.8, BT - 97.4, AC - 102.6, PP - 155.5, NF - 51.0, AVG - 82.5 (84.3 / 81.9)
    #1 EP - 76.0, LP - 65.8, SP - 79.8, TT - 54.3, MP - 79.7, EL - 73.8, DP - 81.2, ELD - 73.4, SF - 76.3, BT - 93.0, AC - 114.9, PP - 162.5, NF - 42.0, AVG - 82.5 (83.9 / 84.0)
    #7 EP - 83.3, LP - 61.9, SP - 81.0, TT - 51.1, MP - 80.0, EL - 75.8, DP - 79.3, ELD - 72.2, SF - 79.8, BT - 93.4, AC - 103.2, PP - 160.8, NF - 49.0, AVG - 82.3 (83.8 / 82.5)
    #6 EP - 74.9, LP - 65.6, SP - 79.0, TT - 53.4, MP - 78.7, EL - 73.4, DP - 80.6, ELD - 72.6, SF - 75.0, BT - 91.8, AC - 113.1, PP - 161.0, NF - 53.0, AVG - 82.5 (83.4 / 83.5)
    #12 EP - 78.3, LP - 60.7, SP - 77.7, TT - 51.8, MP - 77.0, EL - 72.6, DP - 76.9, ELD - 75.8, SF - 88.3, BT - 99.8, AC - 102.5, PP - 155.5, NF - 39.7, AVG - 81.3 (82.1 / 81.1)
    #9 EP - 70.9, LP - 67.3, SP - 78.1, TT - 53.9, MP - 78.0, EL - 72.4, DP - 81.3, ELD - 66.3, SF - 59.2, BT - 80.2, AC - 116.8, PP - 160.8, NF - 53.9, AVG - 79.9 (81.9 / 82.6)
    #11 EP - 81.6, LP - 60.7, SP - 79.4, TT - 52.3, MP - 78.7, EL - 74.0, DP - 77.7, ELD - 72.4, SF - 79.0, BT - 93.2, AC - 103.1, PP - 158.0, NF - 45.2, AVG - 81.2 (81.5 / 80.4)
    #2 EP - 69.5, LP - 69.1, SP - 78.5, TT - 51.3, MP - 77.6, EL - 73.4, DP - 82.6, ELD - 62.7, SF - 66.7, BT - 80.0, AC - 115.7, PP - 161.8, NF - 44.3, AVG - 79.5 (80.7 / 82.3)
    #4 EP - 75.1, LP - 62.0, SP - 76.9, TT - 49.1, MP - 75.4, EL - 72.6, DP - 77.3, ELD - 77.3, SF - 74.1, BT - 95.5, AC - 100.4, PP - 154.2, NF - 48.4, AVG - 79.9 (80.2 / 80.5)

    ==========

    The #13 Kingly scratched out with Baffert electing to run him at Golden Gate in the Preakness prep today instead.
     
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  14. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Haha, no worries Shark. Always love reading your posts. I'd most certainly be one of the sheep you're describing if it wasn't for what I've learned from you.

    I haven't bet a race in forever, my free time has been pretty limited lately. I'm sure I'll get back into it when we get closer to triple crown season.
     
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  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Nah, you're a far cry from being what I was talking about, T. If you had the world on one of your plays you'd get off of it because you've lost your edge in value. The guys I'm talking about truly seem to get satisfaction when everyone else is picking along with them. Or they purposely look for bets that everybody else is playing and then try to echo the reasoning. These guys lack the confidence (and perhaps the know how) to pick for themselves outright, and thus need the confirmation of others just so they feel they did something right, value be damned. Thus they fall into the "group think" or "parroting" categories.

    You and I are the exact opposite of those types. Whether it be in MMA with you, or with the ponies for me, we're more than capable of making up our own minds, and we're certainly not looking for the approval of others in regards to our picks. Guys like us want to be one of only a few that are in on a certain play. The less, the better.
     
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  16. Mga223

    Mga223 Steel Belt

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    @Sharkey did you watch the amazing one again.
     
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  17. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Yeah, I watched it yesterday, M. To be honest, I've become a little ho-hum were her the last few races. Haha. Not because she isn't special because she most certainly is. But she's just doing what everybody expects of her, ya know. There's just no drama or anything when she's facing a lot of the same horses she's already beaten. I'd just like to see something different from her. Whether that be new challenges from other top grass horses around the world (who she'll probably beat anyways). Or another situation where she has to overcome a troubled trip again. But when she breaks from the gate clean like she did and secures a good early position, we already know 3 seconds into the race what the final result is going to be and at that point she should be 1/100 if not lower. 30 in a row, though? That's crazy.
     
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  18. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    Sha Tin or even Happy Valley in Hong Kong should do everything in their power to write a race that could entice the connections of both Winx and Enable to race each other. Hong Kong is neutral ground, and while not halfway for each, it's close enough. Hong Kong is also where horsee racing is at it's most popular around the world, so it would be a huge event. Pretty much everybody who likes the ponies wants to see that race between them and they could write the race to allow for other entrants too so one horse doesn't have the tactical advantage over the other in a match race.
     
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  19. Mga223

    Mga223 Steel Belt

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    Yeap 30 in a row.

    Happy Clapper is such a good horse but has lost 9 times to winx. Brutal.

    Broke track record without whipping her.

    It's just nuts man, wish the Melbourne cup didn't have such a penalty so winx could have run it but you can't have a horse run 3000+ at over 62+ kilos
     
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  20. Sharkey

    Sharkey Who finishes 2nd?

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    That's what they assign her as a handicap? Damn. Yeah, you're right. That's too much for that distance of ground and I'm not even a weight guy save for extreme examples like that. Especially when you assign that to a horse who has never gone past 10 panels I don't believe and now you expect her to go 15+ with such a high weight.
     
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