The Ponies Thread (part 2)

[Sharkey]

Yeap 30 in a row.

Happy Clapper is such a good horse but has lost 9 times to winx. Brutal.

Broke track record without whipping her.

It's just nuts man, wish the Melbourne cup didn't have such a penalty so winx could have run it but you can't have a horse run 3000+ at over 62+ kilos

Besides the Melbourne Cup, what's your guys 2nd biggest race over there, M? Cox Plate? Queen Elizabeth? One of them Darley something races? A different one perhaps? My apologies for not knowing as I don't really follow Aussie racing all that much unless it's with horses like Winx (or Black Caviar before her) who get international attention.

 

[Sharkey]

I really wished there wasn't such a disconnect between Aussie racing and North American/European racing. Part of that is understandable due to the whole northern and southern hemisphere breeding seasons (can't correct mother nature...when a girl needs it, hey) during a horse's early stages of it's career. But once the horses have matured into 4 and 5 year-olds that disconnect really shouldn't be there anymore. The world has become so much smaller over the last couple of decades, and horse racing has seen the effects and benefits of that as well. But there's still plenty more that could be done to help bring all the best horses together. It doesn't even have to be with Winx in particular. If her connections are doing right by her then who are we to tell her where to race and against who. But the opportunities should be there for other top horses from Australia if there connections should so want them. Nowadays it's tough.

Hey Stronach. Instead of investing millions in stupid ideas like you have been doing, why not use some of that money to help entice the best from the south to race here by maybe offering up to pay for some (if not all) of the expenses it would take to bring them over? Or offer up bonus money in race winnings to entice them over. That way we could truly see the best and the best from all around the world, and people wouldn't have to resort to conjecture when it comes to who's better. The sport as a whole (not Stronach) has made strides in that department over the last couple/few decades. Shit, we have three international spots guaranteed in the Derby for horses from Dubai, Europe, and Japan now if they want it. We have events like the Breeders Cup and Dubai World Cup Carnival which have a large international flavour in certain races. There's usually a few horses from North America each year that are shipped off to the UK to run at Ascot. Ditto for Hong Kong. Even horse racing in Japan sees some familar names from North America that race over there to finish out their careers before stud duties. South American horses run in North America all the time, especially at Gulfstream. So why not figure out a way to do the same with the top Aussie horses? They get some Euro horses running down there at times, so it really can't be that difficult to bring everybody together. People smarter and more involved than me should be able to figure out.

 

[Mga223]

That's what they assign her as a handicap? Damn. Yeah, you're right. That's too much for that distance of ground and I'm not even a weight guy save for extreme examples like that. Especially when you assign that to a horse who has never gone past 10 panels I don't believe and now you expect her to go 15+ with such a high weight.

They said maybe even up to 64kg. Lol

 

[Mga223]

Besides the Melbourne Cup, what's your guys 2nd biggest race over there, M? Cox Plate? Queen Elizabeth? One of them Darley something races? A different one perhaps? My apologies for not knowing as I don't really follow Aussie racing all that much unless it's with horses like Winx (or Black Caviar before her) who get international attention.

Hard to say mate probably the caufield Guinness is second.

The Everest was made 2 years ago (redzel won both) it's biggest prize but the race itself is a bore.

 

[Sharkey]

They said maybe even up to 64kg. Lol

That's just stupid. There comes a point where you have to stop trying to "even up" the field and instead think of the horse's safety, no? I mean, I've heard of plenty of horses who were assigned a weight in that range in the past. But they're doing it in one mile races (or a bit longer). Not two mile marathon races where fatigue is already going to be a huge factor. Sometimes you just have to accept the fact that a horse is really, really, good.

 

[Mga223]

@Sharkey Aussie horses don't wanna go to Europe anymore because they are so bad when they get back.

The travel seems to spook a lot of them, sorta wish winx went overseas but what can you do.

 

[Mga223]

That's just stupid. There comes a point where you have to stop trying to "even up" the field and instead think of the horse's safety, no? I mean, I've heard of plenty of horses who were assigned a weight in that range in the past. But they're doing it in one mile races (or a bit longer). Not two mile marathon races where fatigue is already going to be a huge factor. Sometimes you just have to accept the fact that a horse is really, really, good.

100% and it's meant to be the race to find the best horse yet you have handicaps?

A few years back the owner intentionally ran a shit spot in the race before to get a low handicap and it won by a few lengths.

 

[Sharkey]

Hard to say mate probably the caufield Guinness is second.

The Everest was made 2 years ago (redzel won both) it's biggest prize but the race itself is a bore.

Ah, okay. I've heard of that race before. Not that I could tell you anything about it or anything like that. Haha. But I have at least heard of the race name before. We have a clear top two over here for dirt horses with the Derby obviously being the most popular, and then the BC Classic being the best. But beyond those top two, I couldn't tell you what the 3rd biggest is. The Belmont is a huge deal when there's a Triple Crown on the line, but that only happens once every few years. The Pegasus is too new for that distinction and has an uncertain future. The Met Mile is always one of the most prestigious races every year, so maybe that's the one that ranks 3rd. The Travers and Whitney could both be argued top 5 at least. Yeah, I'm like you. I guess it would depend on each situation every year like over here, right?

 

[Sharkey]

100% and it's meant to be the race to find the best horse yet you have handicaps?

A few years back the owner intentionally ran a shit spot in the race before to get a low handicap and it won by a few lengths.

Haha. Good on him. Stuff like that used to happen all the time back in the older days actually when weight assignment was one of the biggest concerns for trainers. The things they resorted to sometimes was pretty comical. One of my favourite practices from trainers back then was to get a lesser horse that visually looked like their top horse (and would also wear the top horse's bridle with it's name on it) and they'd try to fool the racing secretaries, clockers, and writers by sending the lesser horse out to train in the day under the name of the top horse. Every observer would see the lesser horse train and think it was the trainer's top horse, yet the horse would look like crap out on the track in it's workout. Then the trainer would bring his actual top horse out to train late at night after everyone else has gone home. It worked quite often as far as weight assignments went until eventually people started getting wise to the practice.

 

[Mga223]

Haha. Good on him. Stuff like that used to happen all the time back in the older days actually when weight assignment was one of the biggest concerns for trainers. The things they resorted to sometimes was pretty comical. One of my favourite practices from trainers back then was to get a lesser horse that looked like their top horse and they'd try to fool the racing secretaries, clockers, and writers by sending the lesser horse out to train in the day under the name of the top horse. Every observer would see the lssser horse train and think it was the trainer's top horse, yet the horse would look like crap out on the track. Then the trainer would bring his actual top horse out to train late at night after everyone else has gone home. It worked quite often as far as weight assignments went until eventually people started getting wise to the practice.

Haha Waterhouse did this a few months back, someone caught her out but she has so much power it didn't go anywhere.

She even ran a horse in the trial which wasn't named.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha Waterhouse did this a few months back, someone caught her out but she has so much power it didn't go anywhere.

She even ran a horse in the trial which wasn't named.

That's awesome. Glad that practice is still around. Why not use every advantage you can right? So many races (especially on the grass) are won by such a tiny margin, so as long as they're not doing anything illegal or doing things that could intentially hurt the horse, I don't see the problem. If people are fooled by it, all that does is make them look like fools and some egos get hurt. No harm done.

 

[Sharkey]

Speaking of the Triple Crown, did you guys hear that, starting this year, we're going to be having a triple crown series for the 3 year-old turf horses? An actual official triple crown series too, unlike the media created one that exists now. NYRA announced it about a week ago. I'm not sure what I think about it, though, as I can see pluses and minuses, and I won't know for sure which one outweighs the other for some time yet. But at least it's an attempt that the organizers think will be a big positive, so I'll at least give them that for the time being until we know for sure.

 

[Sharkey]

Winx vs Enable has been this decade's version of Rachel vs Zenyatta in a way, albeit with a more international, but less passionate flavour to it. We missed out on the Rachel-Zenyatta matchup from 10 years ago. Yet there is still a chance to see this decade's version even if it's a slim chance. Those in charge should really try their best to make it happen while there is still time.

 

[Sharkey]

Just looking through the past performances of Rachel and noticed in her last race she finished one position ahead of Life At Ten. And when you think of Life At Ten you think of what is probably the biggest fuck up to have happened in horse racing in the more modern times. At least on a big stage. But even with cheap claimers at a 3rd rate track that situation was very unlikely to happen. The jockey knew something was wrong with Life At Ten before the race and very clearly told the world about it. The trainer knew something was wrong in the paddock area. The on-air analyst who was going to bet her, but then didn't after seeing her, knew something was wrong. The vet on the backstretch knew something was wrong. Two of the stewards knew something was wrong. Basically everybody who got a good look at her or was around her knew something was wrong, but they were also powerless to do anything about it. The one person who didn't think there was anything was the chief steward who was the ultimate decision maker and had the final say. He let her run despite all the evidence against it and being surrounding by other officials saying she shouldn't. He single handedly fucked the bettors over in a big way that day. She was the 2nd choice in the race and had millions bet on her by people who didn't have access to the television broadcast or the other information about her. They were blind to what was apparent to everybody else and were trusting that proper decisions were being made by those in charge of making them. They got fucked, and fucked by pretty much one single person. At greedy ass Churchill Downs to no one's surprise. It was disgusting.

 

[Sharkey]

I don't like watching this because it still pisses me off. And I never had a dime on her either. Imagine making a big bet on the horse when everyone connected to the horse, everyone involved in officiating the race (except one), and every television viewer knew she had no chance at all? The only bright side is the jockey did his best to take care of her that day. He had to ride her in the race because only the chief steward can decide on late scratches or declare non-starters, and the jock would have gotten a hefty fine & suspension if he did something otherwise. But he did the best he could given the situation. Yeah, this shit all happened in a Breeders Cup race.

 

[2bet]

I don't like watching this because it still pisses me off. And I never had a dime on her either. Imagine making a big bet on the horse when everyone connected to the horse, everyone involved in officiating the race (except one), and every television viewer knew she had no chance at all? The only bright side is the jockey did his best to take care of her that day. He had to ride her in the race because only the chief steward can decide on late scratches or declare non-starters, and the jock would have gotten a hefty fine & suspension if he did something otherwise. But he did the best he could given the situation. Yeah, this shit all happened in a Breeders Cup race.

I read your text two times and watched the video two times, and I still have no idea at all about what's going on lol

 

[Sharkey]

Have I ever capped or ran the numbers for a race at Churchill Downs on here other than the Derby? No? No, I don't think I have. I wonder why? Haha.

 

[Sharkey]

I read your text two times and watched the video two times, and I still have no idea at all about what's going on lol

Haha. Okay, Bet. I'll give you the short version. They let a sick horse run while knowing going into the race that the horse was sick, and in the process, fucked the backers of the horse over. The sick horse was the one that lagged way, way behind the whole race on the video.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha. Okay, Bet. I'll give you the short version. They let a sick horse run while knowing going into the race that the horse was sick, and in the process, fucked the backers of the horse over. The sick horse was the one that lagged way, way behind the whole race on the video.

To the tune of millions of dollars I should have added. The horse would have had about a million bet on it just as far as straight bets go considering it's odds and the fact that it was the 2nd choice in the betting in a big BC race. And then when you factor in that the bulk of the money bet for races like that are in the exotic wagering pools (exactas, trifetcas, supers, multi-race bets), my guess it would have been about $3 million invested that would have been relying on Life At Ten to run a good race. Somewhere around that, but maybe even more. That's a lot of money that Churchill Downs would have had to refund with a late scratch of the horse. Or more accurately, should have. Considering the track would have gotten over 20% off the top from each of those wagers (17% for straight bets, 22-23% for exotics), that lack of decision by one man allowed Churchill Downs to put about another $600,000 in their coffers by not doing the right thing and scratching the horse.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 2 at Aqueduct (10:22);

#2 EP - 77.1, LP - 61.4, SP - 77.5, TT - 54.9, MP - 77.6, EL - 71.5, DP - 77.2, ELD - 77.9, SF - 96.0, BT - 104.6, AC - 108.4, PP - 156.4, NF - 47.6, AVG - 83.7 / 83.4
#7 EP - 81.8, LP - 60.4, SP - 79.3, TT - 56.0, MP - 79.7, EL - 72.9, DP - 77.5, ELD - 71.9, SF - 93.4, BT - 98.4, AC - 108.3, PP - 158.7, NF - 47.6, AVG - 83.5 / 82.5
#5 EP - 78.0, LP - 60.8, SP - 77.6, TT - 49.4, MP - 76.2, EL - 73.1, DP - 76.9, ELD - 76.2, SF - 88.2, BT - 100.1, AC - 98.8, PP - 154.6, NF - 49.3, AVG - 81.5 / 81.3
#1 EP - 72.0, LP - 59.2, SP - 73.5, TT - 52.0, MP - 72.9, EL - 68.6, DP - 73.9, ELD - 77.7, SF - 76.6, BT - 96.8, AC - 100.1, PP - 148.2, NF - 38.3, AVG - 77.7 / 77.7
#3 EP - 77.9, LP - 58.5, SP - 76.1, TT - 47.1, MP - 74.0, EL - 72.4, DP - 74.7, ELD - 73.4, SF - 75.7, BT - 92.8, AC - 91.4, PP - 150.2, NF - 37.1, AVG - 77.0 / 76.7 *2/1 ML favourite*
#6 EP - 78.4, LP - 55.0, SP - 74.2, TT - 48.3, MP - 72.5, EL - 70.2, DP - 71.6, ELD - 68.6, SF - 80.3, BT - 90.4, AC - 87.6, PP - 145.5, NF - 42.9, AVG - 75.8 / 74.9
#4 EP - 81.1, LP - 51.8, SP - 73.6, TT - 49.0, MP - 72.1, EL - 69.5, DP - 69.3, ELD - 61.9, SF - 83.1, BT - 85.7, AC - 83.3, PP - 142.8, NF - 35.4, AVG - 73.7 / 72.1

Pretty easy game this is when you have a way of identifying bad favourites and waiting for those opportunities. The #2 wins, and the #3 shits the bed in finishing 5th.