The Ponies Thread (part 2)

[Sharkey]

Dude, this is rocket science, right here, I will stick to MMA, dont understand a fuck.....

Cheers, VA. Yeah, it's quite complicated, no doubt.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Cheers, VA. Yeah, it's quite complicated, no doubt.

I was expecting something like "dude, put money in this horse and win a lot of money", but not, life is not that easy...

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

When I'm looking to W/P a horse I go heavier on the place side, so as such, I'd be looking for not only a horse who ranks high and shows good value based on my win probability calculation. But who's place probability is also about equal to or preferably greater than it's win probability. Know what I mean? A horse who I have at 20.7% to win, but only 14.3 to place is one I'd only be looking to win bet if I got better than fair value for that bet.

 

[Sharkey]

I was expecting something like "dude, put money in this horse and win a lot of money", but not, life is not that easy...

Haha. Maybe if I had a horse like that in one of these three races I'd talk him up some, VA. None fit the bill, though. There could be some value to be found in these races nonetheless.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

When I'm looking to W/P a horse I go heavier on the place side, so as such, I'd be looking for not only a horse who ranks high and shows good value based on my win probability calculation. But who's place probability is also about equal to or preferably greater than it's win probability. Know what I mean? A horse who I have at 20.7% to win, but only 14.3 to place is one I'd only be looking to win bet if I got better than fair value for that bet.

Gotcha makes sense. Actually have my ole notebook out rn, gonna write that down, "place bets should be made when equal to or greater than horse's win probability." Good rule of thumb to go by, love those tidbits, thanks.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

@Vir_Ars Shark is a savant dude. This is how I imagine he sees the world.

I don't bet ponies either because I lose enough money degen betting NBA but I like reading through here. I feel like I learn a lot. Cheers @Sharkey

 

[Sharkey]

Gotcha makes sense. Actually have my ole notebook out rn, gonna write that down, "place bets should be made when equal to or greater than horse's win probability." Good rule of thumb to go by, love those tidbits, thanks.

I'll try to explain it a little more for you, bud, by using the my top 3 for that Blue Grass;

#2 EP - 86.4, LP - 69.4, SP - 87.2, TT - 54.5, MP - 87.1, EL - 80.8, DP - 87.4, ELD - 78.5, SF - 91.3, BT - 105.2, AC - 121.0, PP - 175.5
#1 EP - 85.7, LP - 64.2, SP - 83.7, TT - 52.8, MP - 83.1, EL - 77.9, DP - 85.2, ELD - 72.7, SF - 110.0, BT - 117.2, AC - 109.7, PP - 172.7
#3 EP - 80.0, LP - 71.3, SP - 85.2, TT - 56.4, MP - 85.6, EL - 78.3, DP - 83.1, ELD - 70.7, SF - 87.0, BT - 98.4, AC - 127.1, PP - 164.7

#2 AVG - 90.4/90.2/90.3/90.0 (23.6%/22.6%) = 3.2/1 (9/5 ML) *favourite*
#1 AVG - 90.1/89.4/88.6/87.8 (20.7%/14.3%) = 3.8/1 (10/1 ML)
#3 AVG - 87.5/88.0/88.3/88.8 (12.9%/15.5%) = 6.7/1 (5/1 ML)

The pace figures for the top 3 are at the top. The scores calculated using those 4 pace scenarios I mentioned are at the bottom, with the horses' pace balance score being first and then their counter energy score being last. My win percentages are calculated using mostly the 1st score in AVG, with the 2nd score on AVG factoring some and then the 3rd just a tiny bit. The 4th score on AVG doesn't factor for win probability at all. The reverse is then what I do when calculating place probabilities weighted most heavily to the last score in AVG, 2nd last score factoring some, and then the 3rd last score (or 2nd from left) factoring just a little bit. The pace balance score (1st listed) doesn't factor for my place probability.

The #2 is strong across all pace scenarios. The #1 is strong in the pace balance category, but then decreases as it you look left to right, meaning it's counter energy scores are weaker thus reducing it's chances to place. The #3 horse scores higher than the #1 in it's counter energy score even though my calculations show it's a weaker than the #1 as far as win probability goes. The #3 is basically the counter energy horse to either the #1 or the #2 this race, and stands a better chance of finishing 2nd than it does winning.

 

[Sharkey]

"In ALL cases look for EVEN PACED horses. Even paced horses are in the money (not win) more than any other kind, especially if they have one or more of the other 55% Solution factors going for them as well."

- from Dr. Sartin's manual 'The 55% Solution', which is him trying to profile what types fit best in the place spot.

Damn it @t6p. I thought we were the ones to discover that. Well, shit. Apparently the even horse idea goes back at least 29 years. Haha.

Sartin also claims that the 'contra energy' contender to the most likely winner is the "MOST important of all factors' when it comes to finding the place horse. Yeah, that's kinda what I've been trying to say on here for a while now. The vast majority of time the eventual place horse doesn't get a good look at the eventual winner until they hit the stretch.

@BluntTrauma21

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

Basically what I've been trying to say for a while on here now is that it is uncommon for horses to run 1-2 all the way around the track. It's also uncommon for horse who are sitting in the last two positions early to then go on and finish 1st and 2nd. In dirt races anyways.

e.g. Say we were dealing with a 9 horse field, and it featured 3 early runners who like to sit on or very close to the early pace, 3 horses who are more likely to sit around mid-pack, and then 3 who are pure closer types. Most of the time given that situation the exacta will be made up of only one from any of those groups whether it be an early horse with a mid-pack horse, an early horse with a closer, or a mid-pack horse with a closer. It's all herd dynamics stuff really and how they exert dominance over their nearest competitors before the race is over. If 3 early runners are all focsued on each other they're very likely to be only one survivor as typically the others in proximity to it will concede. Ditto for mid-pack runners and closers.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Glad to see this risen from the ashes. Echo the sentiment that I have no idea what is going on but net archaeologists are going to dust this off one day and be fucking impressed.

 

[Sharkey]

Glad to see this risen from the ashes. Echo the sentiment that I have no idea what is going on but net archaeologists are going to dust this off one day and be fucking impressed.

Cheers Steve. The Derby and Triple Crown season is coming up shortly, so I imagine there will at least be a bit of interest in the ponies. After that, who knows.

 

[Sharkey]

P.S. And I'm glad none of you understand as it's better for me if no one does.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p will have us covered for May and June anyways being the Triple Crown trifecta master that he is, and I'm sure he'll keep it a lot more simple than I do.

And I still hate Gronkowski for ruining T's triple crown run last year I've have you know.

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p will have us covered for May and June anyways being the Triple Crown trifecta master that he is, and I'm sure he'll keep it a lot more simple than I do.

And I still hate Gronkowski for ruining T's triple crown run last year I've have you know.

i.e. @t6p I know I mentioned to you before to hit me up before you do some races. You really don't need to, though. I'm not sure what method you used last year when you were crushing it, but I'd do it the same this year as well. Why not right? If it worked for you then why change it.

 

[t6p]

i.e. @t6p I know I mentioned to you before to hit me up before you do some races. You really don't need to, though. I'm not sure what method you used last year when you were crushing it, but I'd do it the same this year as well. Why not right? If it worked for you then why change it.

I'd love to use the same method again this year bud, problem for me is just remembering what it was, haha. But seriously, I give you most of the credit for me hitting those trifectas by steering me in the right direction like you always do.

Also, like others, I'm very happy to see this thread active again.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

Look at my probabilities for the #11 horse here compared to it's ML odds and you'll see a prime example of a horse I'd like to bet to W/P later on today;

==========

Race 7 at Keeneland (3:18);

#12 (32.2%/26.2%) = 2.1/1
#11 (23.0%/25.0%) = 3.3/1 (12/1 ML)
#3 (6.1%/8.6%) = 15.3/1
#14 (5.7%/6.9%) = 16.5/1
#6 (5.0%/4.9%) = 19.2/1
#8 (4.8%/3.0%) = 19.7/1
#5 (4.5%/3.5%) = 21.2/1
#15 (4.1%/6.2%) = 23.4/1
#2 (4.0%/5.4%) = 24.0/1
#10 (3.9%/5.5%) = 24.6/1
#1 (2.9%/2.1%) = 33.8/1
#9 (2.7%/2.1%) = 35.5/1
#4 (0.9%/0.8%) = 112.6/1

==========

 

[Sharkey]

I'd love to use the same method again this year bud, problem for me is just remembering what it was, haha. But seriously, I give you most of the credit for me hitting those trifectas by steering me in the right direction like you always do.

Also, like others, I'm very happy to see this thread active again.

If you were using a version of our old formula we should be able to figure out what you were using, T, since we still have some listed in our PM's I do believe. If not, then I'll have it stored on one of my computers at home here.

And cheers.

 

[Sharkey]

P.S. Great job capping the recent UFC cards as well @t6p. Keep it going like we all know you can.

 

[t6p]

If you were using a version of our old formula we should be able to figure out what you were using, T, since we still have some listed in our PM's I do believe. If not, then I'll have it stored on one of my computers at home here.

And cheers.

If I remember correctly, you had run the numbers with the formula we were using at that time and they were my starting point. How I actually landed on the horses I did though is a lot fuzzier, haha.

But no worries bud, I have everything you've shared with me saved, so I do still have a copy of that formula.

 

[t6p]

P.S. Great job capping the recent UFC cards as well @t6p. Keep it going like we all know you can.

Thanks, Shark. I told myself that I won't be betting any fights where I haven't done proper research and so far I've been sticking to that. It's been working well so hopefully that'll continue. Pretty sure what got me into trouble to begin with was going too much off memory instead of really digging into tape. It seems obvious, but the things you catch when rewatching fights can really sway your opinion of how a particular matchup might play out. My main issue now is finding the time for tape every week.