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The Ponies Thread (part 2)

BluntTrauma21 said:
We'll get em later in one of these even if we have to pass on one or two. We'll get at least one. I feel it!
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Those three Derby preps are all going to be ran within a half hour of each other, bud, with the Blue Grass and SA Derby scheduled 7 mins apart. Try checking out the multi-race will pays and be sharp when watching the board please. I can post in advance of the Wood, but it'll be tough for me to do for those other two.
 
Sharkey said:
Those three Derby preps are all going to be ran within a half hour of each other, bud, with the Blue Grass and SA Derby scheduled 7 mins apart. Try checking out the multi-race will pays and be sharp when watching the board please. I can post in advance of the Wood, but it'll be tough for me to do for those other two.
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No worries, I don't want to put that kind of pressure on ya. I'll keep an eye but when in doubt I'll just pass. Just gonna have some fun watching the ponies with my boy Shark today.
 
In the Wood it looks like the money is going to go on the #2, #4, #10, #1 and #5 in that order. I doubt there's going to be much, if any value this race even if I don't like the #2 that much, so this could be a pass. We'll see, though. I'm looking for 7/2 minimum on the #4 this race and I'm not sure I get that.
 
Sharkey said:
==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)

==========
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Both are probably going to go off just slightly better than my fair odds for them, but not by much. With neither offering much value this is a pass race for me.

Kinda sucks because, despite being 2nd choice on the ML, I thought there was a decent chance the #4 would be ignored somewhat by the public.
 
The 1 horse ran well, I like that name too, Tax. Haikel seemed to get out slow and didn't have time to run down the lead even tho he looked like he was gaining at the end a bit. Chalk either way, can't beat that.
 
Sharkey said:
Cutting out all the extra confusing stuff that I doubt anybody understands, these are just my W/P probabilities and fair odds lines for those races;

==========

G2 Wood Memorial (3:00);

#4 (28.5%/32.9%) = 2.5/1 (7/2 ML)
#1 (17.5%/18.6%) = 4.7/1 (9/2 ML)
#10 (9.4%/7.9%) = 9.7/1 (6/1 ML)
#5 (9.1%/8.1%) = 10.0/1 (8/1 ML)
#9 (7.9%/7.8%) = 11.6/1 (30/1 ML)
#3 (6.3%/6.0%) = 14.8/1 (6/1 ML)
#2 (6.0%/7.5%) = 15.6/1 (5/2 ML) *favourite*
#11 (5.2%/3.6%) = 18.3/1 (30/1 ML)
#7 (4.7%/4.1%) = 20.3/1 (20/1 ML)
#6 (2.9%/1.5%) = 33.5/1 (20/1 ML)
#8 (2.5%/1.9%) = 39.3/1 (30/1 ML)

==========
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How about that run by the #9 horse to hit the super, huh, as the 60/1 longest shot on the board? Doubt many gave him the chances I did.

Shut up Sharkey. The #2 won and made you look the fool.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
The 1 horse ran well, I like that name too, Tax. Haikel seemed to get out slow and didn't have time to run down the lead even tho he looked like he was gaining at the end a bit. Chalk either way, can't beat that.
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Looking way ahead, I think we may have just seen the Belmont winner in that race.
 
Gonna try a small #1, #2, #3, #7 trifecta box for me in the Blue Grass with the #8 taking the money as the favourite.
 
Sharkey said:
Gonna try a small #1, #2, #3, #7 trifecta box for me in the Blue Grass with the #8 taking the money as the favourite.
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Gonna win bet the #1 as well, and then play the #7 small across the board as he'll be a huge price.
 
Small win bet on the 1 for me. Just a few bucks. GL with the tri, Shark.
 
Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

If you're going to bet this race and are looking to play exactas or tris, be careful of these top 2 here as there is some potential for them conflicting with each other (top 2 EP ratings and close). I don't have it happening until the turn if it does happen, but it could very well happen earlier. Or not at all. But, as I've spoken about a bunch in the past on here, the vast majority of the time there's only one survivor that fills the exacta in those types of situations.
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@BluntTrauma21

That was exactly what I was worried about there with the #1 and #2 running 1st and 2nd early and then conflicting with each other on the turn. But it's a great demonstration of what I was trying to describe.
 
Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

That was exactly what I was worried about there with the #1 and #2 running 1st and 2nd early and then conflicting with each other on the turn. But it's a great demonstration of what I was trying to describe.
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Called it to a tee there, I see what you mean, for sure. Tired each other out, 1 ran a good race for almost 10-1. Not mad at that.
 
Sharkey said:
Nah, I didn't hit it, bud. The #8 screwed me by passing the #1 and #3 in the last couple of strides.
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ugh that sucks, still got another one left, hopefully it goes well in the main event.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Called it to a tee there, I see what you mean, for sure. Tired each other out, 1 ran a good race for almost 10-1. Not mad at that.
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Yeah, that was typical how most races play out. Two good horses like that go at each other before the stretch and only one survives. Most often the other falls back to 3rd, 4th, or worse. It's just rare that both finish top 2 even if you have them as the two best going in.
 
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