The Ponies Thread (part 2)

This looks like a great race to play today with me having a 5/1 horse on top by a big margin, some double digit horses behind that one, and then some shorter priced types ranked at the bottom (including the ML favourite and 2nd choices).

Race 9 at Parx;

==========

#9 EP - 64.7, LP - 51.7, SP - 65.2, TT - 50.3, MP - 64.2, EL - 61.2, DP - 65.0, ELD - 78.2, SF - 76.1, BT - 97.1, AC - 89.8, PP - 130.4, NF - 34.0, AVG - 71.4 (2.8/1) (5/1 ML)

#6 EP - 56.9, LP - 59.2, SP - 66.0, TT - 51.7, MP - 65.3, EL - 61.6, DP - 70.1, ELD - 62.4, SF - 60.0, BT - 77.2, AC - 94.0, PP - 136.8, NF - 27.0, AVG - 68.3 (6.8/1) (10/1 ML)

#8 EP - 52.5, LP - 51.0, SP - 58.6, TT - 47.9, MP - 56.9, EL - 55.7, DP - 61.3, ELD - 68.1, SF - 72.2, BT - 86.9, AC - 102.4, PP - 119.4, NF - 47.7, AVG - 67.7 (8.0/1) (15/1 ML)

#5 EP - 54.0, LP - 57.3, SP - 63.3, TT - 50.7, MP - 62.4, EL - 59.4, DP - 67.6, ELD - 61.8, SF - 61.3, BT - 77.2, AC - 97.1, PP - 131.3, NF - 35.7, AVG - 67.6 (8.3/1) (4/1 ML)

#4 EP - 65.9, LP - 49.8, SP - 64.6, TT - 46.2, MP - 62.4, EL - 61.8, DP - 63.5, ELD - 74.7, SF - 69.2, BT - 91.3, AC - 70.4, PP - 127.2, NF - 23.2, AVG - 66.9 (9.9/1) (12/1 ML)

#2 EP - 58.5, LP - 46.6, SP - 58.9, TT - 56.4, MP - 59.7, EL - 53.6, DP - 58.7, ELD - 78.2, SF - 68.7, BT - 94.2, AC - 83.0, PP - 119.5, NF - 31.3, AVG - 66.7 (10.5/1) (20/1 ML)

-----

#3 EP - 59.3, LP - 51.0, SP - 62.0, TT - 45.6, MP - 59.7, EL - 59.6, DP - 63.0, ELD - 75.0, SF - 64.4, BT - 89.8, AC - 71.4, PP - 123.9, NF - 29.0, AVG - 65.7 (3/1 ML)

#1A EP - 52.3, LP - 54.2, SP - 60.4, TT - 52.4, MP - 60.1, EL - 56.2, DP - 64.2, ELD - 64.0, SF - 61.3, BT - 79.0, AC - 94.5, PP - 125.5, NF - 27.3, AVG - 65.5 (7/2 ML)

#7 EP - 55.2, LP - 48.5, SP - 58.4, TT - 45.2, MP - 56.0, EL - 56.2, DP - 59.6, ELD - 74.1, SF - 60.0, BT - 87.2, AC - 69.3, PP - 116.7, NF - 50.3, AVG - 64.4 (6/1 ML)

#1 EP - 59.9, LP - 45.7, SP - 59.0, TT - 47.3, MP - 57.1, EL - 56.2, DP - 58.1, ELD - 75.6, SF - 58.7, BT - 88.1, AC - 53.6, PP - 116.4, NF - 21.8, AVG - 61.3 (7/2 ML)

==========

I'll basically be looking to bet the #9 at 3/1 or better, and then playing some #9 over #6, #8, and then #6 over #5, #8, #9 exactas.

The #4 profiles a bit like a stalk & fade victim to the #9, but it could also play the stalker role itself if the #1 goes to the lead early. I can't put that one in 2nd because of the way it could conflict with the #9 horse earlier in the race, but it has enough there that says it could finish 3rd or 4th even if getting stalked early. The #2 looks like a one paced type that could fill the bottom of a tri or super as well and at a big price. I'll use those two underneath if playing beyond the exacta, which I'm not sure I will yet unless I key the #9 and try to beat the #5 outright. We'll see.
 
Race 9 at Parx (pre-scratches);

- #9 to win at 3/1 or better for $28 (#6 backup win option at 7/1 or better for $18)
- #9 over #6, #8 exactas and #6 over #5, #8, #9 exactas for $2 each
- #9 / #6 / #2, #4, #5, #8 trifectas for $1
- #9 / #5 / #2, #4, #6, #8 trifectas for $1
- #5, #6 / #9 / #2, #4, #5, #6, #8 trifectas for $1
- #9 / #6 / #2, #4, #8 / #2, #4, #8 supers for $1

That's the plan anyways for that race with what should be a planned $60 risked in total.
 
Sharkey said:
Race 9 at Parx (pre-scratches);

- #9 to win at 3/1 or better for $28 (#6 backup win option at 7/1 or better for $18)
- #9 over #6, #8 exactas and #6 over #5, #8, #9 exactas for $2 each
- #9 / #6 / #2, #4, #5, #8 trifectas for $1
- #9 / #5 / #2, #4, #6, #8 trifectas for $1
- #5, #6 / #9 / #2, #4, #5, #6, #8 trifectas for $1
- #9 / #6 / #2, #4, #8 / #2, #4, #8 supers for $1

That's the plan anyways for that race with what should be a planned $60 risked in total.
Click to expand...

Besides a few trifectas keying the #9 on top, I ended up bailing on most of these plays yesterday just because both the #9 and the #6 were taking all the money and screwed with my plans. I think the #6 went off as the 2/1 favourite and I tried to beat it outright in tris. The #9 shit the bed in the end for me anyways, so I was losing regardless.

I ended up doing this race for today, and only because it was featured on one of the HRN blogs (as was yesterday's race from Parx). Not sure there will be a bet to be made, but we'll see what the tote says.

Race 2 at Turf Paradise;

=====

#1 EP - 71.3, LP - 48.0, SP - 66.2, TT - 52.6, MP - 65.8, EL - 61.6, DP - 63.2, ELD - 67.0, SF - 80.6, BT - 89.2, AC - 84.0, PP - 130.3, NF - 7.5, AVG - 68.3 (10.9% = 8.2/1)
#2 EP - 59.2, LP - 54.4, SP - 64.1, TT - 50.0, MP - 63.0, EL - 60.3, DP - 66.2, ELD - 70.7, SF - 69.9, BT - 88.2, AC - 96.4, PP - 130.5, NF - 42.3, AVG - 70.4 (17.8% = 4.6/1)
#3 EP - 49.9, LP - 44.4, SP - 53.1, TT - 46.1, MP - 51.0, EL - 51.1, DP - 54.4, ELD - 73.9, SF - 37.9, BT - 78.5, AC - 50.2, PP - 106.4, NF - 25.5, AVG - 55.6 (0.5% = 185.6/1)
#4 EP - 62.0, LP - 50.1, SP - 62.8, TT - 48.7, MP - 61.4, EL - 59.5, DP - 62.9, ELD - 78.9, SF - 61.1, BT - 91.8, AC - 75.0, PP - 125.5, NF - 23.2, AVG - 66.4 (6.9% = 13.5/1
#5 EP - 64.8, LP - 51.5, SP - 65.1, TT - 55.2, MP - 65.5, EL - 59.9, DP - 64.9, ELD - 78.0, SF - 63.8, BT - 92.0, AC - 80.6, PP - 131.7, NF - 40.0, AVG - 70.2 (17.0% = 4.9/1)
#6 EP - 65.4, LP - 51.5, SP - 65.5, TT - 53.3, MP - 65.3, EL - 60.7, DP - 65.0, ELD - 77.3, SF - 82.8, BT - 98.9, AC - 102.5, PP - 131.6, NF - 36.5, AVG - 73.6 (38.1% = 1.6/1)
#7 EP - 67.5, LP - 45.5, SP - 62.7, TT - 48.3, MP - 61.2, EL - 59.5, DP - 59.9, ELD - 67.6, SF - 75.2, BT - 87.6, AC - 77.3, PP - 122.2, NF - 41.2, AVG - 67.4 (8.8% = 10.4/1)

=====
 
Mahoning Valley has been cancelling cards do to freezing weather over the past week. The same thing happened last year at the track at around this time of year as well. Perhaps @t6p can remember how the track played and the big bias it showed after that freezing? A similar thing happened earlier this year at the track too, although the bias was only mild in comparison (16 to 11).
 
Sharkey said:
Mahoning Valley has been cancelling cards do to freezing weather over the past week. The same thing happened last year at the track at around this time of year as well. Perhaps @t6p can remember how the track played and the big bias it showed after that freezing? A similar thing happened earlier this year at the track too, although the bias was only mild in comparison (16 to 11).
Click to expand...

My memory isn't what it used to be bud, but I wanna say outside speed?
 
t6p said:
My memory isn't what it used to be bud, but I wanna say outside speed?
Click to expand...

You're right, T. Because of course you are. And sorry. I was just thinking out loud there. Haha. But yeah, outside speed was king under the same circumstances at the track last year and there was big payouts being handed out. It even showed something similar earlier this year, but not as extreme. Actually, they did get a card in this past Saturday, and it looked like the outside was playing very well that day too with at least half the winners being outside speed types (none lower than 2/1 either by the looks of it). A couple/few others placed.

I'm not sure why I mentioned this beyond being reminded and it being something I'm going to watch for once they start running again (may be today). But of it shows up again then hey. Why not try to use it to my advantage right?
 
The #2 horse is an overlayed 12/1 in race 9 at Tampa coming up in a couple minutes. W/P on him for me.
 
#1 EP - 67.2, LP - 41.5, SP - 60.0, TT - 48.3, MP - 58.5, EL - 57.0, DP - 64.1, ELD - 62.9, SF - 74.0, BT - 84.9, AC - 61.5, PP - 132.6, AVG - 67.0
#2 EP - 61.7, LP - 52.5, SP - 64.2, TT - 49.8, MP - 63.0, EL - 60.5, DP - 63.3, ELD - 75.6, SF - 65.3, BT - 83.5, AC - 80.2, PP - 126.3, AVG - 69.5
#3 EP - 58.4, LP - 49.3, SP - 60.5, TT - 47.3, MP - 58.7, EL - 57.6, DP - 59.8, ELD - 76.4, SF - 67.0, BT - 85.2, AC - 78.3, PP - 119.4, AVG - 67.4
#4 EP - 57.5, LP - 44.6, SP - 57.1, TT - 44.9, MP - 54.6, EL - 55.1, DP - 57.7, ELD - 76.7, SF - 55.2, BT - 76.2, AC - 50.0, PP - 116.3, AVG - 61.8
#5 EP - 63.1, LP - 45.5, SP - 60.5, TT - 47.6, MP - 58.7, EL - 57.6, DP - 62.2, ELD - 72.1, SF - 70.9, BT - 86.5, AC - 71.2, PP - 126.5, AVG - 67.7
#6 EP - 66.4, LP - 43.8, SP - 61.1, TT - 46.2, MP - 59.0, EL - 58.5, DP - 64.2, ELD - 66.8, SF - 57.9, BT - 74.0, AC - 35.7, PP - 131.9, AVG - 63.3
#7 EP - 53.9, LP - 39.8, SP - 52.3, TT - 47.1, MP - 50.5, EL - 50.0, DP - 53.4, ELD - 74.3, SF - 59.2, BT - 78.2, AC - 56.9, PP - 108.4, AVG - 60.2
#8 EP - 67.9, LP - 43.2, SP - 61.4, TT - 49.0, MP - 60.1, EL - 58.1, DP - 65.1, ELD - 64.4, SF - 77.9, BT - 88.6, AC - 72.5, PP - 134.3, AVG - 69.2
#9 EP - 59.4, LP - 44.9, SP - 58.2, TT - 48.6, MP - 56.8, EL - 55.2, DP - 59.2, ELD - 75.0, SF - 60.5, BT - 79.6, AC - 61.1, PP - 119.8, AVG - 64.3
 
The #8 won. The #2 is in a photo for 2nd with the #3 I think it was.
 
Race 1 at Penn National coming up in a few minutes;

#1 EP - 67.9, LP - 51.8, SP - 66.9, TT - 52.8, MP - 66.5, EL - 62.2, DP - 67.8, ELD - 75.1, SF - 74.8, BT - 90.8, AC - 88.6, PP - 137.1, NF - 58.0, AVG - 73.9
#2 EP - 72.6, LP - 55.6, SP - 71.6, TT - 54.9, MP - 71.8, EL - 66.0, DP - 72.6, ELD - 75.1, SF - 77.9, BT - 93.2, AC - 93.5, PP - 146.7, NF - 58.0, AVG - 77.7
#3 EP - 68.8, LP - 53.4, SP - 68.3, TT - 53.2, MP - 68.1, EL - 63.4, DP - 69.0, ELD - 76.3, SF - 76.1, BT - 92.3, AC - 90.5, PP - 139.2, NF - 58.0, AVG - 75.1
#4 EP - 70.7, LP - 46.7, SP - 65.1, TT - 53.2, MP - 64.9, EL - 60.4, DP - 68.3, ELD - 66.0, SF - 77.4, BT - 88.9, AC - 76.9, PP - 140.4, NF - 58.0, AVG - 72.1
#5 EP - 78.2, LP - 52.0, SP - 72.2, TT - 53.0, MP - 71.9, EL - 67.1, DP - 75.7, ELD - 65.0, SF - 88.3, BT - 97.0, AC - 92.2, PP - 155.5, NF - 58.0, AVG - 79.0
#6 EP - 65.1, LP - 55.4, SP - 67.7, TT - 51.1, MP - 66.9, EL - 63.4, DP - 66.9, ELD - 75.4, SF - 63.5, BT - 82.1, AC - 83.6, PP - 133.3, NF - 58.0, AVG - 71.7

I'm playing a straight #5 over #3 exacta here in a race that looks to have a couple/few chase and fade types, including the #2 who is the current even money favourite.
 
Shit, I thought I had it around the turn when the #3 came up on the #2 who was chasing in 2nd behind the #5. Just couldn't get around the #2, though, and faded late. The #5 wins over the #2.
 
#1 EP - 70.6, LP - 48.8, SP - 66.4, TT - 51.7, MP - 65.7, EL - 62.0, DP - 68.9, ELD - 68.7, SF - 78.3, BT - 90.8, AC - 81.4, PP - 140.9, AVG - 73.2
#2 EP - 69.2, LP - 47.3, SP - 64.7, TT - 49.3, MP - 63.4, EL - 61.0, DP - 67.4, ELD - 68.1, SF - 74.4, BT - 87.5, AC - 70.4, PP - 138.0, AVG - 70.7
#3 EP - 57.9, LP - 42.8, SP - 56.2, TT - 45.2, MP - 53.8, EL - 54.2, DP - 57.4, ELD - 74.1, SF - 53.9, BT - 74.0, AC - 53.0, PP - 116.5, AVG - 61.3
#4 EP - 67.3, LP - 53.9, SP - 67.8, TT - 50.7, MP - 66.9, EL - 63.6, DP - 68.0, ELD - 78.4, SF - 69.2, BT - 87.8, AC - 87.2, PP - 136.6, AVG - 73.5
#5 EP - 68.8, LP - 46.6, SP - 64.1, TT - 49.3, MP - 62.8, EL - 60.5, DP - 66.9, ELD - 67.7, SF - 72.2, BT - 85.6, AC - 71.9, PP - 137.1, AVG - 70.1
#6 EP - 67.7, LP - 43.5, SP - 61.5, TT - 50.0, MP - 60.5, EL - 57.9, DP - 65.0, ELD - 65.0, SF - 60.9, BT - 75.6, AC - 47.8, PP - 134.0, AVG - 65.2
#7 EP - 71.8, LP - 48.8, SP - 67.0, TT - 50.3, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.9, DP - 69.8, ELD - 67.5, SF - 72.6, BT - 85.9, AC - 70.4, PP - 143.0, AVG - 71.8
#8 EP - 73.7, LP - 44.4, SP - 65.2, TT - 48.3, MP - 63.6, EL - 61.8, DP - 69.9, ELD - 60.0, SF - 81.3, BT - 89.4, AC - 69.3, PP - 145.1, AVG - 71.5
#9 EP - 71.0, LP - 45.7, SP - 64.6, TT - 51.0, MP - 63.8, EL - 60.5, DP - 68.2, ELD - 64.4, SF - 74.8, BT - 86.2, AC - 70.9, PP - 140.6, AVG - 70.7
#10 EP - 67.1, LP - 50.7, SP - 65.8, TT - 49.6, MP - 64.5, EL - 62.0, DP - 66.9, ELD - 74.7, SF - 74.4, BT - 90.3, AC - 81.4, PP - 135.3, AVG - 72.3
#1A EP - 63.2, LP - 50.7, SP - 63.8, TT - 51.7, MP - 63.2, EL - 59.6, DP - 63.9, ELD - 78.6, SF - 72.2, BT - 90.3, AC - 88.2, PP - 128.3, AVG - 71.7
#2B EP - 59.9, LP - 51.7, SP - 62.7, TT - 50.7, MP - 61.8, EL - 58.8, DP - 61.7, ELD - 74.9, SF - 61.8, BT - 80.5, AC - 81.9, PP - 122.7, AVG - 68.2

This is race 2 at Penn in a couple minutes, and the #4 is currently 10/1. I have the race as pretty wide open though.
 
The #7 to win and a #4, #7, #8 exacta box here in race 8 at Delta Downs. There's a big 2/5 favourite currently that I'm trying to beat outright as I only have it ranked 3rd overall (behind the #4 and #7).
 
Fuck. Lost the exacta in the last couple of strides with the favourite beating the #7 to the line after the #7 went by it earlier in the stretch. Tough one. #4, #5, #7, #8 was the order, so this program of mine was only that neck away from calling a pretty big super in order.
 
A couple of potentially good betting races tomorrow at Santa Anita.

This first one here is race 1, which is the "today's best bet" race selection on HRN for the day;

==========

Race 1 at Santa Anita;

#4 EP - 74.6, LP - 53.3, SP - 71.2, TT - 55.2, MP - 71.5, EL - 65.6, DP - 69.0, ELD - 70.2, SF - 79.7, BT - 91.6, AC - 426.5, PP - 142.0, NF - 48.4, AVG - 101.5 (28.3% = 2.5/1)
#5 EP - 66.0, LP - 55.9, SP - 68.5, TT - 52.1, MP - 67.9, EL - 63.9, DP - 69.3, ELD - 75.7, SF - 67.2, BT - 91.4, AC - 432.1, PP - 138.6, NF - 51.3, AVG - 100.0 (19.9% = 4.0/1)
#1 EP - 69.3, LP - 51.8, SP - 67.6, TT - 53.6, MP - 67.5, EL - 62.6, DP - 66.3, ELD - 73.7, SF - 72.6, BT - 91.8, AC - 431.4, PP - 135.1, NF - 50.5, AVG - 99.5 (17.6% = 4.7/1)
#3 EP - 65.0, LP - 53.8, SP - 66.6, TT - 54.9, MP - 66.9, EL - 61.3, DP - 67.1, ELD - 77.3, SF - 61.0, BT - 90.4, AC - 437.4, PP - 135.3, NF - 54.5, AVG - 99.4 (17.2% = 4.8/1)
#7 EP - 61.7, LP - 54.2, SP - 65.2, TT - 56.3, MP - 65.9, EL - 59.6, DP - 66.6, ELD - 73.5, SF - 61.4, BT - 87.3, AC - 423.0, PP - 133.8, NF - 44.1, AVG - 96.4 (8.5% = 10.8/1)
#6 EP - 62.6, LP - 55.3, SP - 66.4, TT - 49.4, MP - 65.1, EL - 62.6, DP - 67.9, ELD - 73.0, SF - 51.8, BT - 83.1, AC - 400.1, PP - 134.2, NF - 52.2, AVG - 94.1 (4.9% = 19.4/1) *ML favourite*
#8 EP - 76.9, LP - 44.4, SP - 66.8, TT - 47.2, MP - 64.8, EL - 63.6, DP - 61.2, ELD - 56.7, SF - 72.4, BT - 77.1, AC - 383.0, PP - 127.3, NF - 48.1, AVG - 91.5 (2.7% = 36.7/1)
#2 EP - 50.0, LP - 55.9, SP - 60.4, TT - 54.1, MP - 60.5, EL - 55.7, DP - 65.3, ELD - 59.4, SF - 44.0, BT - 68.4, AC - 385.8, PP - 127.0, NF - 42.9, AVG - 86.9 (86.9% = 111.0/1)

==========

The 2nd one is race 6, and it is the DRF 'race of the day;

==========

Race 6 at Santa Anita;

#4 EP - 77.4, LP - 55.4, SP - 73.9, TT - 56.2, MP - 74.5, EL - 67.9, DP - 71.7, ELD - 70.2, SF - 87.3, BT - 94.5, AC - 507.6, PP - 147.7, NF - 46.4, AVG - 110.0 (42.5% = 1.4/1)
#1 EP - 68.1, LP - 58.7, SP - 71.3, TT - 53.9, MP - 71.2, EL - 66.0, DP - 72.5, ELD - 74.3, SF - 74.2, BT - 93.0, AC - 491.2, PP - 145.1, NF - 54.5, AVG - 107.2 (21.9% = 3.6/1)
#2 EP - 75.1, LP - 57.8, SP - 74.3, TT - 56.8, MP - 75.0, EL - 68.0, DP - 73.4, ELD - 75.4, SF - 74.6, BT - 94.1, AC - 474.5, PP - 149.9, NF - 33.1, AVG - 106.3 (17.7% = 4.7/1)
#7 EP - 68.3, LP - 53.0, SP - 67.8, TT - 55.5, MP - 68.3, EL - 62.3, DP - 67.2, ELD - 76.4, SF - 77.7, BT - 96.1, AC - 452.3, PP - 136.8, NF - 52.2, AVG - 102.6 (7.4% = 12.6/1)
#5 EP - 76.8, LP - 46.1, SP - 67.8, TT - 53.3, MP - 67.6, EL - 62.9, DP - 62.8, ELD - 59.0, SF - 85.1, BT - 84.0, AC - 470.5, PP - 131.8, NF - 44.7, AVG - 101.0 (5.0% = 18.8/1)
#3 EP - 70.0, LP - 49.6, SP - 66.6, TT - 51.5, MP - 65.9, EL - 62.2, DP - 64.4, ELD - 70.3, SF - 75.5, BT - 90.0, AC - 444.4, PP - 131.6, NF - 48.7, AVG - 99.3 (3.4% = 28.7/1)
#6 EP - 62.2, LP - 59.0, SP - 68.5, TT - 52.6, MP - 68.1, EL - 63.7, DP - 71.2, ELD - 68.1, SF - 67.7, BT - 85.1, AC - 423.5, PP - 140.7, NF - 36.3, AVG - 97.4 (2.1% = 45.5/1) *ML favourite*

==========

I pulled out the old formula and implemented into the AC category just because each race looks to have a very beatable favourite, and I'd like to use any weapon I can to try to beat them. So I did. I've done this a number of times over the past month in these type of attack races, and it's worked out well for me.
 
Race 1 plans;

- 4,5 / 1,3,4,5 in $5 exactas
- 4 / 1,3,5 / 1,3,5 in $2 tris
- win bet the best value (if any) from my top 4


Race 6 plans;

- 1,4 / 1,4,7 in $5 exactas
- 4 / 1 / 2,7 in $2 tris
- 4 / 2,7 / 1 in $2 tris
- win bet the best value (if any) from my top 3


Those are based on the morning lines and assuming no scratches, so they can change of course.
 
"In ALL cases look for EVEN PACED horses. Even paced horses are in the money (not win) more than any other kind, especially if they have one or more of the other 55% Solution factors going for them as well."

- from Dr. Sartin's manual 'The 55% Solution', which is him trying to profile what types fit best in the place spot.

Damn it @t6p. I thought we were the ones to discover that. Well, shit. Apparently the even horse idea goes back at least 29 years. Haha.

Sartin also claims that the 'contra energy' contender to the most likely winner is the "MOST important of all factors' when it comes to finding the place horse. Yeah, that's kinda what I've been trying to say on here for a while now. The vast majority of time the eventual place horse doesn't get a good look at the eventual winner until they hit the stretch.
 
That unopposing horses idea is why I don't have plans to use the #2 horse in race 6 as far as the exacta goes (could use in 2nd a tiny bit for the tri). I have him ranked 3rd best overall, but both the #1 and #7 as better place candidates due to them not appearing to conflict with the #4 in the early running. The #2 does look like he may oppose the #4, and may also be a chase and fade victim because of that.
 
I really need to find a new home for this stuff.
 
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