The Ponies Thread (part 2)

Soccer Steve said:
No! If anything, now that you can relate, you'll have more material to hammer them with. I'm sure the fans in the centre of the universe can take it.
Click to expand...

Great point, Steve. I may have to do that since it's a fellow Canadian that's suggesting it. Non-Canadians and Canadians living in the Toronto area have no idea what the rest of us are forced to deal with year after year after year if we have any kind of interest in sports, so any kind of backlash against it is a good thing.
 
Eventually us plebs out west just smile and nod and go about our business. The Matthews>McDavid chatter at the beginning of the year sure was cute.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Eventually us plebs out west just smile and nod and go about our business. The Matthews>McDavid chatter at the beginning of the year sure was cute.
Click to expand...

I missed much of that chatter myself. But that sounds like the typical talk of desperation from inside a city which may have the lowest combined level of self esteem in the world.
 
And to think horse racing almost lost this guy because of pressure being put on him by the power syndicates and other higher-ups with influence.

 
Pulling a Lazarus on this thread. You need to get 2019 going.

GULFSTREAM PARK

RACE 01-- #7 Baffin Bay
RACE 02-- #4 Bryzzo
RACE 03-- #4 Sir Senescal
RACE 04-- #5 Feed Me Carats
RACE 05-- #1 Pass the Butter
RACE 06-- #11 Gracis Adios
RACE 07-- #1 All Star Red ***LONGSHOT***
RACE 08-- #11 C'era Una Volta
RACE 09-- #5 Tiz Mischief
RACE 10-- #7 Wicked Trick
 
Race 1 was a cha-ching:
7 Baffin Bay J: T. Gaffalione 120Lbs 11.40 6.40 4.00

Race 2: nothing
 
Race 03: Nothing

Race 04: Nothing

Race 05 was a cha-ching:
1 Pass the Butter J: L. Saez 121Lbs 5.80 3.00 2.60

Race 06: Nothing

Race 07: Not a win, but the long shot placed, and paid well:
All Star Red J: A. Jimenez 121Lbs 18.00 9.80

Race 08: Nothing
 
Last edited:
Big race going on tomorrow if anyone is interested, although I'm not really sure how or even if I'm going to bet it because so far in 2019 I'm trying to stay really disciplined in what races I play.

G1 Pegasus World Cup;

#1 Bravazo 12/1
#2 Something Awesome 20/1
#3 City of Light 5/2
#4 Seeking the Soul 12/1
#5 Accelerate 9/5
#6 Tom's d'Etat 20/1
#7 True Timber 30/1
#8 Gunnevera 8/1
#9 Kulkulkan 30/1
#10 Audible 10/1
#11 Imperative 30/1
#12 Patternrecognition 10/1

==========

What my program came up with for this race (my fair odds at the end in brackets);

#5 EP - 95.5, LP - 81.7, SP - 99.6, TT - 61.3, MP - 101.3, EL - 90.5, DP - 98.1, ELD - 73.2, SF - 105.7, BT - 114.1, AC - 68.1, PP - 195.5, NF - 45.8, AVG - 94.7 (2.0/1)
#3 EP - 93.8, LP - 73.9, SP - 93.9, TT - 57.9, MP - 94.7, EL - 86.0, DP - 94.4, ELD - 76.6, SF - 115.7, BT - 123.4, AC - 54.7, PP - 190.2, NF - 52.8, AVG - 92.9 (3.6/1)
#1 EP - 89.6, LP - 71.9, SP - 90.5, TT - 59.4, MP - 91.7, EL - 82.5, DP - 90.6, ELD - 78.5, SF - 99.6, BT - 111.6, AC - 58.3, PP - 182.0, NF - 49.3, AVG - 88.9 (10.8/1)
#12 EP - 89.5, LP - 69.0, SP - 88.6, TT - 55.7, MP - 88.8, EL - 81.7, DP - 89.6, ELD - 74.9, SF - 114.0, BT - 121.3, AC - 51.2, PP - 180.9, NF - 44.7, AVG - 88.4 (12.3/1)
#7 EP - 86.8, LP - 69.7, SP - 87.7, TT - 55.3, MP - 87.8, EL - 81.0, DP - 87.8, ELD - 78.6, SF - 109.2, BT - 119.2, AC - 55.2, PP - 176.3, NF - 48.7, AVG - 87.9 (13.9/1)
#6 EP - 86.4, LP - 73.1, SP - 89.6, TT - 56.9, MP - 90.1, EL - 82.3, DP - 88.5, ELD - 74.9, SF - 99.6, BT - 110.1, AC - 62.6, PP - 176.7, NF - 46.6, AVG - 87.5 (15.4/1)
#8 EP - 82.5, LP - 77.1, SP - 90.1, TT - 62.3, MP - 92.2, EL - 81.4, DP - 86.9, ELD - 65.9, SF - 95.3, BT - 102.8, AC - 78.6, PP - 171.1, NF - 47.6, AVG - 87.2 (16.6/1)
#4 EP - 86.1, LP - 71.9, SP - 88.7, TT - 60.4, MP - 90.3, EL - 80.5, DP - 88.0, ELD - 76.0, SF - 95.7, BT - 107.5, AC - 63.7, PP - 175.8, NF - 44.7, AVG - 86.9 (17.9/1)
#10 EP - 81.8, LP - 69.1, SP - 84.8, TT - 58.3, MP - 85.8, EL - 77.4, DP - 83.8, ELD - 75.2, SF - 79.6, BT - 94.6, AC - 63.2, PP - 167.3, NF - 44.7, AVG - 82.0 (59.4/1)
#2 EP - 79.1, LP - 68.1, SP - 82.7, TT - 58.0, MP - 83.7, EL - 75.6, DP - 81.4, ELD - 73.7, SF - 85.7, BT - 98.7, AC - 65.0, PP - 162.1, NF - 41.2, AVG - 81.1 (73.7/1)
#9 EP - 78.4, LP - 65.5, SP - 80.8, TT - 59.8, MP - 82.3, EL - 73.3, DP - 80.1, ELD - 76.2, SF - 86.6, BT - 100.5, AC - 63.0, PP - 160.1, NF - 42.3, AVG - 80.7 (81.1/1)
#11 EP - 72.0, LP - 64.3, SP - 76.8, TT - 56.4, MP - 77.3, EL - 70.4, DP - 74.8, ELD - 71.2, SF - 93.1, BT - 103.4, AC - 67.0, PP - 148.2, NF - 31.3, AVG - 77.4 (178.4/1)

==========

Looks like a 2 horse race to me between Accelerate and City of Light (each are 1-1 against the other too, so this is the rubber match), and I'm thinking Accelerate's positioning in the first part of the race will decide the winner. If he allows City of Light some breathing room over the first half of the race that one may be really tough to run down late. But if Accelerate can sit that outside stalking trip just off of City of Light then that might also open the race up for 2nd at the line as I'm not sure City of Light will handle that pressure well. The #12 could have something to say about the early pace as well with it drawing the outside post it did, which may cause it to show a little more early speed than maybe it otherwise would prefer. Accelerate is obviously more than capable of playing the stalk and pounce role if the #12 is the one pressuring the #3 early.

After the top two I have a bit of a log jam between a handful of horses who may feature as underneath types. Not terribly interested in having any money on the #1 Bravazo or the #8 Gunnevera just because they're popular horses who are going to get bet a lot in exotic wagers. They make perfect sense in that spot all things being equal since they don't conflict at all with the likely race winners. But because they're going to get overbet underneath I'll pass on both of them. Meh, maybe I can find room somewhere for just one of them and that being Bravazo. The #12 looks like either a stalk & fade or a chase & fade type to me unless he somehow does manage to get the early lead over a moderate pace. Don't think that's likely, so he's a pass as well. The #7 True Timber obviously has appeal to me, and I will use if playing the race. Beyond that I'm not sure. The #6 looks like a chase & fade type to me as well based on what I came up with. The #4 Seeking the Soul doesn't do much for me either, although maybe he gets forgot about some in this race and can offer up some value underneath. Maybe.

Tough race to bet because I feel like I'll be trying to force a play a little bit just because it's a big race. But...

- Maybe #3 to win at 4/1 or better (unlikely to get that)
- Then perhaps try to split the two favourites in exactas and tris by using the #7 for value and then possibly the #1 and #4.
 
Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks that roulette wager that Stronach recently implemented is a really, really, dumb idea;




$117 out of almost $748,000 was placed in the roulette pool for this particular race. That's uh, well, laugh out loud low.
 
Sharkey said:
Big race going on tomorrow if anyone is interested, although I'm not really sure how or even if I'm going to bet it because so far in 2019 I'm trying to stay really disciplined in what races I play.

G1 Pegasus World Cup;

#1 Bravazo 12/1
#2 Something Awesome 20/1
#3 City of Light 5/2
#4 Seeking the Soul 12/1
#5 Accelerate 9/5
#6 Tom's d'Etat 20/1
#7 True Timber 30/1
#8 Gunnevera 8/1
#9 Kulkulkan 30/1
#10 Audible 10/1
#11 Imperative 30/1
#12 Patternrecognition 10/1

==========

What my program came up with for this race (my fair odds at the end in brackets);

#5 EP - 95.5, LP - 81.7, SP - 99.6, TT - 61.3, MP - 101.3, EL - 90.5, DP - 98.1, ELD - 73.2, SF - 105.7, BT - 114.1, AC - 68.1, PP - 195.5, NF - 45.8, AVG - 94.7 (2.0/1)
#3 EP - 93.8, LP - 73.9, SP - 93.9, TT - 57.9, MP - 94.7, EL - 86.0, DP - 94.4, ELD - 76.6, SF - 115.7, BT - 123.4, AC - 54.7, PP - 190.2, NF - 52.8, AVG - 92.9 (3.6/1)
#1 EP - 89.6, LP - 71.9, SP - 90.5, TT - 59.4, MP - 91.7, EL - 82.5, DP - 90.6, ELD - 78.5, SF - 99.6, BT - 111.6, AC - 58.3, PP - 182.0, NF - 49.3, AVG - 88.9 (10.8/1)
#12 EP - 89.5, LP - 69.0, SP - 88.6, TT - 55.7, MP - 88.8, EL - 81.7, DP - 89.6, ELD - 74.9, SF - 114.0, BT - 121.3, AC - 51.2, PP - 180.9, NF - 44.7, AVG - 88.4 (12.3/1)
#7 EP - 86.8, LP - 69.7, SP - 87.7, TT - 55.3, MP - 87.8, EL - 81.0, DP - 87.8, ELD - 78.6, SF - 109.2, BT - 119.2, AC - 55.2, PP - 176.3, NF - 48.7, AVG - 87.9 (13.9/1)
#6 EP - 86.4, LP - 73.1, SP - 89.6, TT - 56.9, MP - 90.1, EL - 82.3, DP - 88.5, ELD - 74.9, SF - 99.6, BT - 110.1, AC - 62.6, PP - 176.7, NF - 46.6, AVG - 87.5 (15.4/1)
#8 EP - 82.5, LP - 77.1, SP - 90.1, TT - 62.3, MP - 92.2, EL - 81.4, DP - 86.9, ELD - 65.9, SF - 95.3, BT - 102.8, AC - 78.6, PP - 171.1, NF - 47.6, AVG - 87.2 (16.6/1)
#4 EP - 86.1, LP - 71.9, SP - 88.7, TT - 60.4, MP - 90.3, EL - 80.5, DP - 88.0, ELD - 76.0, SF - 95.7, BT - 107.5, AC - 63.7, PP - 175.8, NF - 44.7, AVG - 86.9 (17.9/1)
#10 EP - 81.8, LP - 69.1, SP - 84.8, TT - 58.3, MP - 85.8, EL - 77.4, DP - 83.8, ELD - 75.2, SF - 79.6, BT - 94.6, AC - 63.2, PP - 167.3, NF - 44.7, AVG - 82.0 (59.4/1)
#2 EP - 79.1, LP - 68.1, SP - 82.7, TT - 58.0, MP - 83.7, EL - 75.6, DP - 81.4, ELD - 73.7, SF - 85.7, BT - 98.7, AC - 65.0, PP - 162.1, NF - 41.2, AVG - 81.1 (73.7/1)
#9 EP - 78.4, LP - 65.5, SP - 80.8, TT - 59.8, MP - 82.3, EL - 73.3, DP - 80.1, ELD - 76.2, SF - 86.6, BT - 100.5, AC - 63.0, PP - 160.1, NF - 42.3, AVG - 80.7 (81.1/1)
#11 EP - 72.0, LP - 64.3, SP - 76.8, TT - 56.4, MP - 77.3, EL - 70.4, DP - 74.8, ELD - 71.2, SF - 93.1, BT - 103.4, AC - 67.0, PP - 148.2, NF - 31.3, AVG - 77.4 (178.4/1)

==========

Looks like a 2 horse race to me between Accelerate and City of Light (each are 1-1 against the other too, so this is the rubber match), and I'm thinking Accelerate's positioning in the first part of the race will decide the winner. If he allows City of Light some breathing room over the first half of the race that one may be really tough to run down late. But if Accelerate can sit that outside stalking trip just off of City of Light then that might also open the race up for 2nd at the line as I'm not sure City of Light will handle that pressure well. The #12 could have something to say about the early pace as well with it drawing the outside post it did, which may cause it to show a little more early speed than maybe it otherwise would prefer. Accelerate is obviously more than capable of playing the stalk and pounce role if the #12 is the one pressuring the #3 early.

After the top two I have a bit of a log jam between a handful of horses who may feature as underneath types. Not terribly interested in having any money on the #1 Bravazo or the #8 Gunnevera just because they're popular horses who are going to get bet a lot in exotic wagers. They make perfect sense in that spot all things being equal since they don't conflict at all with the likely race winners. But because they're going to get overbet underneath I'll pass on both of them. Meh, maybe I can find room somewhere for just one of them and that being Bravazo. The #12 looks like either a stalk & fade or a chase & fade type to me unless he somehow does manage to get the early lead over a moderate pace. Don't think that's likely, so he's a pass as well. The #7 True Timber obviously has appeal to me, and I will use if playing the race. Beyond that I'm not sure. The #6 looks like a chase & fade type to me as well based on what I came up with. The #4 Seeking the Soul doesn't do much for me either, although maybe he gets forgot about some in this race and can offer up some value underneath. Maybe.

Tough race to bet because I feel like I'll be trying to force a play a little bit just because it's a big race. But...

- Maybe #3 to win at 4/1 or better (unlikely to get that)
- Then perhaps try to split the two favourites in exactas and tris by using the #7 for value and then possibly the #1 and #4.
Click to expand...

Did you end up playing that 3-4 exacta bud?
 
t6p said:
Did you end up playing that 3-4 exacta bud?
Click to expand...

Nah, I ended up passing the race because of the rain the track got, T. I would have had to play it backwards anyways to find value, so I didn't mind the weather making it easy for me.
 
Sauna said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

i like horses but understand that i dont have an edge. but as a semi pro gambler and a student of coding i find this very exeting. i have even heard it can be done in ufc and mma. i have been working on something...

sorry for bad english...
Click to expand...

Thank for posting that, Sauna. I read through a bit of that article before with plans to read through it all at some point, but ended up forgetting about it til you posted this. Cheers.

I don't see why a successful computer model couldn't be done for MMA if you can find numerical value in what goes on inside the cage. Some of that is provided for you already via "fight stats" and the like if you're one to trust those. Best of luck with what you're working on.
 
@Sharkey I'm back baby! Sorry for long absence, as you know the surgery/recovery's been pretty rough so it's been a minute but doing better. Been posting in the boxing forum, but decided to come here to one of my favorite threads to pay my respects to the Horse Whisperer himself, haha.

Hope all is well, plan on getting back into the ponies and mixing it up with you, T, and co. like before. Send my best to the fam, Scarlett says hi to Bella too :).
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
@Sharkey I'm back baby! Sorry for long absence, as you know the surgery/recovery's been pretty rough so it's been a minute but doing better. Been posting in the boxing forum, but decided to come here to one of my favorite threads to pay my respects to the Horse Whisperer himself, haha.

Hope all is well, plan on getting back into the ponies and mixing it up with you, T, and co. like before. Send my best to the fam, Scarlett says hi to Bella too :).
Click to expand...

Cheers bud. It was great to hear that you're on your way to recovery and are still able to remain intact. I meant to send you a message a week or so ago about that, but I got lazy I think. Or something. But that was great to hear.

I'm still betting the ponies most days even if I haven't posted anything here. In 2019 so far I've been trying to be way more selective on what races/horses I put money on.
 
Woke up this morning looking to play some races only find out that our regular site for PP's is down. That sucks as it was working fine yesterday. Unlike last time when Brisnet attempted to block it, this time I'm not finding a work around. As of yet anyways.
 
Okay, I'm good. Still blocked out of looking at some races. But I can get to the PP's with others now, so I'll take it.
 
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