Ours is based on all sorts of numbers that honestly I don't have the energy or bandwidth to track. The main one for me is always gonna be hospitalizations and hospital capacity. Even above deaths. Case numbers can be wrong (although I know in my area the number of cases is skyrocketing, I don't know exactly how much because yeah there can be false positives, etc). Deaths are tricky because it is mainly elderly or people who are already sick that don't make it (not exclusively, but mostly). And Covid could play a role but not be the only one, etc. So it makes it at least a little blurry.
But the one thing you can't fake is hospitalizations when it comes to this thing cutting into their profit margins. There is absolutely ZERO chance a hospital wants to be full up on Covid cases and unable to provide their more lucrative services. Even non profit hospitals use the money they make on all those elective surgeries to cover the costs of the massive write offs they give to people who can't pay their bills. This is pure and simple economics. In fact, I'll capitalize the next part for all those who deny Covid is an issue anywhere so that they might actually let it sink in:
IF YOU SEE A PLACE WHERE HOSPITALS HAVE CANCELLED ELECTIVE SURGERIES DUE TO BEING OVERWHELMED BY COVID, REST ASSURED THAT YOU ARE NOT NOT NOT BEING LIED TO AND IT'S NOT A HOAX IN THAT SPOT. HOSPITALS ARE NOT GOING TO DENY MORE PROFITABLE PROCEDURES FOR FUN, THEY JUST AREN'T.
