Ask me this a year or two ago and I would have told you that Pavlovich flies across the Octagon and swarms Rozenstruik before TKO'ing him in Round 1. I still think there's a chance of that happening, as Volkov and Ngannou were both capable of encroaching on Bigi Boy's space, making him uncomfortable, and tagging him with shots he couldn't recover from. Sergei has terrifying early pressure and could easily do the same with his output, hand speed, and power.
But Jairzinho is not the victim people make him out to be. If there's one thing he's decent at, it's moving around on the back foot and playing the sniper/counter-striker. His timing is underrated and unlike Sergei he has shown legitimate one-shot touch of death power in his hands and kicks, even on jabs or grazing blows. I should also note that in his last two bouts -- both of which were against heavy-handed brawlers who like to march their opponent down and make it ugly -- Rozenstruik showed a new aspect to his game. He traded singular kill shots for volume in the form of an active jab & kicking game to pick both men apart in a very educated fashion -- always one step ahead with his footwork and shot selection on the outside. Given the way Pavlovich got embarrassed by Volkov who did the same exact thing to him and Sergei seemed incapable of closing the distance and cutting off the cage... it's not impossible to imagine Rozenstruik could repeat that feat.
I could see Pavlovich being the rightful favorite just due to his former hype and level of competition, but stylistically speaking Rozenstruik has multiple ways to win this. I wonder if Pavlovich will flex his wrestling.
